Alert archive / Florida / Rip Current Statements in 2019

Rip Current Statement 23, NWS Melbourne, FL

September 18, 2019Volusia County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this rip current statement at Sep 18, 2019, 3:46 AM EDT for Volusia County, Florida. It took effect at Sep 18, 2019, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2019, 3:46 AM EDT (07:46 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 18, 2019, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 18, 2019, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL

County Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 00:00Z on 2019-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 629 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 00:00Z on 2019-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -59 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
629 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
1 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

305 
WHUS42 KMLB 180746
CFWMLB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
346 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-190000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.RP.S.0023.190918T1200Z-190919T0000Z/
Southern Brevard-Indian River-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Northern Brevard-
346 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a High Rip
Current Risk, which is in effect from 8 AM EDT this morning
through this evening. 

* TIMING...While life-threatening rip currents will be present all
  day, the risk will be highest after 2 PM. 

* IMPACTS...Large swells from Hurricane Humberto will produce
  rough surf and numerous strong rip currents in the surf zone,
  posing a threat to all swimmers today. Entering the surf is not
  advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is a high risk of rip currents.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away 
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the 
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and 
piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach patrol. Pay 
attention to flags and posted signs.

&&

$$

Kelly
2 follow-up statements
941 
WHUS42 KMLB 181945
CFWMLB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...High Surf Advisory now in effect starting tonight through 
Saturday...

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-190300-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SU.Y.0006.190919T0000Z-190921T2000Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-190919T0000Z/
Southern Brevard-Indian River-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Northern Brevard-
345 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a High Surf
Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
Saturday. 

* WAVES AND SURF...High surf is expected to develop along the east
  central Florida beaches starting tonight with the arrival of the
  high tide and increasing swells from the northeast. The high
  risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend as well. 

* Timing...Rough surf conditions will worsen during the next few
  days as seas and swell periods increase. 

* IMPACTS...Large northeast swells from Hurricane Humberto will
  produce rough surf and numerous strong rip currents in the surf
  zone, posing a threat to all swimmers during the next few days.
  Entering the surf is not advised. Minor beach erosion is
  possible near the time of high tide, which will be around 1130 
  pm tonight and noon on Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is a high risk of rip currents.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and
piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach patrol. Pay
attention to flags and posted signs.

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$
516 
WHUS42 KMLB 190017
CFWMLB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
817 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...High Surf Advisory in effect through Saturday...

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-191000-
/O.EXP.KMLB.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-190919T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-190921T2000Z/
Southern Brevard-Indian River-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Northern Brevard-
817 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...High surf is expected to develop along the east
  central Florida beaches tonight with the arrival of the high
  tide and increasing swells from the east-northeast. A High Risk
  of life-threatening rip currents will continue through the 
  weekend as well.
 
* Timing...Rough surf conditions will occur during the next few 
  days as seas and swell periods increase. 

* IMPACTS...Large east-northeast swells from Hurricane Humberto 
  will produce rough surf and numerous strong rip currents in the 
  surf zone, posing a threat to all swimmers during the next few 
  days. Entering the surf is not advised. Minor beach erosion is 
  possible near the time of high tide, which will be around 1130 
  pm tonight and noon on Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in 
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and 
dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Sedlock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this rip current statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this rip current statement went out at Sep 17, 9:20 PM EDT, 6 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 9:20 PM EDT, 6 hours 26 minutes before
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Not much to update at this hour with a dry environment in place
attm. The forecast was earlier updated to remove the coastal
headlines. A small chance of a light shower remains in place for the
Treasure Coast, where some brief showers may make it ashore from the
Gulf stream. the overnight shift will evaluate any need to re-
introduce a High Surf Advisory for the coast on Wed with
expectations of wind and swell once again increasing over the next
18-24H.

from prev disc...

Tonight...With drier air moving south across the FL peninsula today,
skies were partly cloudy from Orange/Brevard counties south and
mostly clear to their north. However, a few showers were streaming
to the south across the offshore waters east of the Treasure Coast,
remaining well off the coast. Satellite analysis showed this
infiltration of drier air mass from the north and any shower
activity overnight will concentrate over these waters.

Wed-Wed night...An area of moisture at the mid levels will be
pushed south towards FL during the day as a surface high pressure
builds from the northeast US towards FL. This will combine with
the daytime heating and a northeast wind flow to produce showers
and thunderstorms. These will focus over the waters, coastal areas
and towards the northern counties of Volusia to Lake during the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will not be as high as today, as we
expect highs in the lower 90s across the interior and upper 80s
along the coast.

Sea conditions will continue to be no suitable for boaters or
swimmers through the rest of the week. Large northeast swells
generated by Humberto will reach the Atlantic coastal waters of
central FL, causing a high risk for rip currents. Based on current
observations, criteria for a high surf was not met, yet. But with
a forecast calling for building seas and a swell period of 12
seconds, it will be needed either on Wed or Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thru 18/03Z...bcmg N/NE 3-6KTS. Btwn 18/12Z-18/15Z...bcmg NE 8-
12KTS. Vsbys/WX/Cigs: VFR all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas of 8-9 feet with a predominant period of 11 seconds at 41009
continue with expectations of steadily building seas peaking at 10-
13 feet Thu and Fri. This coupled with a surge in northeast winds to
near 20 kts late Thu into the weekend. This surge in winds will be
the effect of a high pressure building to our north and increasing
the local pressure gradient. High surf and beach erosion will be
possible during this period.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

JP/PG
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 8:53 PM EDT, 6 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-180900-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
853 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all east central
Florida Atlantic waters. Hazardous wind and sea conditions will
continue as long period swells from Hurricane Humberto impact the
local marine area.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The St Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in minor flood stage
through late week. The St Johns River near Geneva is forecast to
remain in action stage into the upcoming weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Hazardous marine and surf conditions will continue through the
end of this week, and perhaps into the weekend, as swells from
Humberto impact the east central Florida coast. Dangerous rip
currents will also continue into late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Pendergrast

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 18, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBVolusia34 min
Sep 18, 3:45 PM EDTHigh Surf AdvisoryMLBVolusia4 days

Nearby

Rip Current Statements in Florida, 2019Every rip current statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.