Alert archive / Wisconsin / High Wind Warnings in 2019
High Wind Warning 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this high wind warning at Feb 23, 2019, 8:18 PM CST for 20 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Feb 24, 2019, 6:00 AM CST. It was in force for 15 hr. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2019, 8:18 PM CST (02:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 24, 2019, 6:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2019, 9:00 PM CST
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 6:39 AM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 59 | 3 N Pleasant Prairie, WI | ASOS STATION ENW, KENOSHA AIRPORT. |
| Feb 24, 8:00 AM CST | SNOW 3.3 | 3 Wsw Westfield, WI | |
| Feb 24, 1:48 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 3 Nnw Sheboygan Falls, WI | ASOS STATION SBM, SHEBOYGAN-AIRPORT. |
| Feb 24, 2:16 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 2 Wsw Saint Francis, WI | MEASURED AT MKE. |
| Feb 24, 2:41 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Se Germantown, WI | HARDWOOD TREE APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES IN DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF IN PARK. WIND GUSTS FREQUENTLY 45 TO 55 MPH. |
| Feb 24, 5:09 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 63 | 2 Wsw Saint Francis, WI | MEASURED AT MKE. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 718 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 172 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 254 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
744 WWUS73 KMKX 240218 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 818 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...FOG TONIGHT, THEN VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241200- /O.UPG.KMKX.WI.Y.0002.190224T1200Z-190225T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.HW.W.0001.190224T1200Z-190225T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.FG.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190224T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 818 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM CST Sunday. * VISIBILITY...Visibility around a quarter mile or less this evening and tonight. Visibilities may briefly improve as areas of showers move through, but will quickly fall back to around a quarter mile. * WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 55 to 60 mph on Sunday. The strongest winds will be from mid to late morning through the afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Dense fog tonight will result in potentially hazardous driving conditions. Gusty winds on Sunday will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible. Driving may be especially difficult on north-south roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving...slow down... use your headlights...and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$
6 follow-up statements
864 WWUS73 KMKX 240518 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1118 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...FOG TONIGHT, THEN VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241330- /O.CON.KMKX.HW.W.0001.190224T1200Z-190225T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.FG.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190224T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 1118 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY... a High Wind Warning remains in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM CST Sunday. * VISIBILITY...Visibility around a quarter mile or less overnight. Visibilities may briefly improve as areas of showers move through, but will quickly fall back to around a quarter mile. * WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 55 to 60 mph on Sunday. The strongest winds will be from mid to late morning through the afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Dense fog tonight will result in potentially hazardous driving conditions. Gusty winds on Sunday will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible, as are scattered power outages. Driving may be especially difficult on north-south roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving...slow down... use your headlights...and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$
506 WWUS73 KMKX 241000 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 400 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...Very Strong West To Northwest Winds Developing This Morning And Lingering Into This Evening... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241800- /O.EXP.KMKX.FG.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190224T1000Z/ /O.CON.KMKX.HW.W.0001.190224T1200Z-190225T0300Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 400 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... The Dense Fog Advisory will expire at 4 AM CST early this morning. A High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST this evening. * VISIBILITY...Visibility values will improve with rain mixing with and changing to snow early this morning. * WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 35 MPH, with gusts of 55 to 60 MPH. The strongest winds will be from middle to late morning through the afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Strong winds today into this evening will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible, with scattered power outages. Driving will be especially difficult on north to south oriented roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ Wood
891 WWUS73 KMKX 241320 AAA NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 720 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...Very Strong West To Northwest Winds Developing This Morning And Lingering Into This Evening... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-242130- /O.CON.KMKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 720 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST this evening. * VISIBILITY...Occasionally reduced to one mile with light snow or blowing snow. * WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 35 MPH, with gusts of 55 to 60 MPH. The strongest winds will be from middle to late morning through the afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Strong winds today into this evening will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible, with scattered power outages. Driving will be especially difficult on north to south oriented roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$
190 WWUS73 KMKX 241616 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...Very Strong West To Northwest Winds Developing This Morning And Lingering Into This Evening... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250030- /O.CON.KMKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... A High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST this evening. * WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 35 MPH, with gusts of 50 to 60 MPH. The strongest winds will be from middle to late morning through the afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Strong winds today into this evening will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible, with scattered power outages. Driving will be especially difficult on north to south oriented roads. Blowing snow may cause some slick spots. * CURRENT CONDITIONS...As of 10 am west winds are 20 to 30 mph gusting 45 to 52 mph. Highest gusts are in southwest Wisconsin and far eastern Wisconsin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$
238 WWUS73 KMKX 242115 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 315 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...Very Strong West To Northwest Winds Lingering Into This Evening... WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250300- /O.CON.KMKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 315 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST this evening. * WINDS...West winds 25 to 35 MPH, with gusts of 50 to 60 MPH. The strongest winds will be through the afternoon hours in eastern Wisconsin. * IMPACTS...Strong winds today into this evening will cause trash cans and other unsecured objects to be blown around. Some tree and minor structural damage is possible, with scattered power outages. Driving will be especially difficult on north to south oriented roads. Blowing snow may cause some slick spots on roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$
284 WWUS73 KMKX 250246 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 846 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250400- /O.EXP.KMKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T0300Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 846 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... The High Wind Warning will expire at 9 PM CST this evening. A few wind gusts to 45 MPH will be possible for the rest of this evening, but overall winds will continue to diminish into the overnight hours. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Feb 23, 6:09 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 6:09 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
609 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
.UPDATE...
The next round of showers is moving into the area right on
schedule. Should see periodic shower activity through the evening
and first half of the overnight. Minor flooding will remain a
concern due to poor drainage and snow melt, though no major issues
are expected.
As the surface low lifts into the area, winds will (briefly)
decrease as the pressure gradient weakens. Richer moisture will
also accompany the surface low, and with those higher dewpoints
moving over our still significant snowpack, conditions seem ripe
for widespread dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect
through 4 AM. Will likely see occasional areas of improvement
associated with the areas of showers, but overall it looks to be a
a very soupy night across the region.
Finally, we continue to keep a close eye on winds for tomorrow.
Latest NAM and RAP guidance is showing the potential for gusts
reaching the 50 kt threshold for a High Wind Warning. Would like
to see a few more runs of the RAP and take an initial look at the
00Z NAM before making any decisions on an upgrade to the Wind
Advisory, but based on the data available now, that's a
possibility.
&&
.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Widespread fog and rain is expected overnight across the area,
with 1/2 to 1/4 SM visibility and ceilings between 300 and 500 ft.
Winds will be from the east initially, becoming southeasterly with
time as a surface low lifts into the area. A slot of dry air may
wrap into the eastern side of the low later tonight, resulting in
brief improvements at MKE and ENW, but vis and ceilings will
quickly return to LIFR.
As that surface low lifts north of the area, west winds will
increase very rapidly Sunday morning, with 40-50 knot gusts
throughout the day on Sunday. Very strong winds aloft will also
result in low level wind shear. The strong winds will continue
into the early evening, slowly diminishing later Sunday evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 341 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019)
SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Sunday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium to
High.
Widespread showers associated with approaching vigorous short wave
will spread across southern WI late this afternoon and early
evening. Can not rule out isolated thunder with elevated CAPE of
several hundred joules this evening as strongest synoptic lift
sweeps through. Impressive synoptic lift as low pressure near
Kansas City moves rapidly northeast and undergoes cyclogenesis.
Coupled upper level jet and impressive layer q-vector convergence,
reaching values of 50 to 100 units across southern WI this
evening. First period of showers and embedded thunder will
diminish towards midnight with a second batch of showers expected
after midnight into early Sunday as the upper level low pressure
trof swing through.
Several concerns to watch out overnight. Firstly, surface
temperatures remain around or just above freezing most areas. The
dewpoints have been slower to come up across the northern tier of
counties, so it is possible, a period of light freezing rain or
sleet may mix in with the showers this evening from the Dells to
Berlin, Montello, Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Any mix should change
over to all rain or drizzle for a time overnight as the low levels
of the atmosphere continue to warm due to increasing ESE winds.
Another concern is dense fog. Fog has been flirting with 1/4sm at
times in the KMRJ/KEFT areas and lower visibilities are spreading
east and north from there. However widespread showers expected to
affect this area late this afternoon and early evening, should
cause at least a brief reprieve from the thicker fog. However a
baggier gradient is expected for a time overnight as the surface
low moves across southern WI. This may allow a 3 to 6 hour period
of dense fog, especially as warmer, moist air continues to move
northward into more of southern WI. The dense fog threat will end
once the surface low passes to the northeast between 07Z and 10Z
or so and southwest to west winds begin to rapidly increase.
Third overnight concern is flooding potential. Many areas have
received between one quarter and three quarters inch of liquid
this morning. Similar amounts are expected late this afternoon and
evening. So some areas will be receiving over an inch of liquid
in a 12 to 18 hour period. The remaining snow cover has absorbed
some of the rainfall. However the potential for higher hourly
rainfall rates for a time this evening, some melting snow, and
lingering snow and ice covered drainage areas may result in
localized urban and rural street flooding. Hence an Areal Flood
Advisory has been issued for the entire area through this evening.
Colder air quickly sweeps in late tonight and Sunday morning. With
the low pressure trof remaining in the area in the morning, some
light snow or snow showers may accompany the ramp up in winds.
Areas northwest of Madison toward Reedsburg and the Dells may
experience an inch or two of snow. Sunday's focus in on the strong
winds expected. Impressive 3 hourly pressure rise across southern
WI in the wake of the low of 6 to 8 mb during the morning along
with potential mixing up to 900-925mb will allow wind gusts of 45
to potentially 50 knots to reach the surface on Sunday. A Wind
Advisory has been posted for the entire area, and it is possible a
few counties in the south may need to be upgraded to a High Wind
Warning if the low level winds come in a little stronger. The
strong winds will persist into Sunday evening before abating as
much colder air once again settles over the area. Wind Chills by
early Monday will be in the 15 to 20 below range.
LONG TERM...
Monday... Forecast Confidence Medium.
High pressure will begin spreading into the Northern Plains
Monday morning. We are heading into a pattern with persistent
cold northwest flow with little ripples that roll across the
Midwest.
A subtle feature in the upper levels will bring a chance of light
snow to southern WI Monday afternoon. This shows up best with the
NAM, but other models hint at it. There is weak forcing
associated with the right entrance region of an upper jet, 600 to
700mb warm air advection, and marginal 850mb frontogenesis. We
could see up to a half inch of fluffy snow.
Temperatures Monday night will drop back down into the single
digits below zero northwest of Madison and single digits above
southeast. Temps will depend on cloud cover.
Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast Confidence Medium.
We will see a very similar scenario as Monday again on Tuesday
with warm air advection aloft and subtle lift from another jet
streak embedded within swift northwest flow. Another dusting is
possible.
Tuesday night through Wednesday, we are looking at a little
stronger system. This one will have stronger 850mb frontogenesis.
The 850mb baroclinic zone will remain stationary across northern
IL and southern WI during this period. A mid level shortwave
rolling across it on Wednesday will enhance the lift to give us 1
to 2 inches of snow accumulation.
Yet another weak feature will bring us a small chance for snow on
Thursday. There is still uncertainty about timing, location and
amounts, but this one looks light, similar to Monday and Tuesday.
Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Low to Medium.
We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop
over the Midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure
system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream
mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that
is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track
looks a little farther southeast which would put southern WI in
more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we
can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF and
GFS both have it. The Canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us
dry.
MARINE...
Confidence in reaching storm force winds on Sunday grew due to
consistent model runs with winds to that level. We upgraded to a
Storm Warning for the whole Lake Michigan for Sunday morning.
While gales initially develop late tonight, they will quickly
amplify to storm force, so opted NOT to ramp up the headlines and
instead went straight to a storm warning. The south half of the
lake will reach storm force a couple hours earlier than the north
half, but opted to keep start and end times the same for now since
the ramp- up is quick and spreads from south to north Sunday
morning. Storm force winds should end by late Sunday evening, but
there is a chance this would need to be extended.
We will need a gale warning once the storm force winds end later
Sunday night. Winds will diminish below gales Monday morning as
high pressure spreads into the region.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for WIZ046-047-051-052-
056>060-062>072.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...Storm Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for LMZ080-261-362-
364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for LMZ643>646.
&&
Update...Boxell
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Sunday Night through Saturday...99Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 6:15 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 615 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250015- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 615 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight There remains a chance for a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening. Dense fog is expected at times from this evening through the pre- dawn hours. Additional rainfall of one quarter to three quarters inch this evening may result in localized street flooding, especially in low areas due to ice and snow covered drainage areas and melting snow. Areas northwest of Madison toward Reedsburg and the Wisconsin Dells may experience a period of light freezing rain or sleet this evening, transitioning to periods of snow late tonight into Sunday morning. These areas may receive 1 to 2 inches of snow through Sunday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Lingering light snow will end by midday Sunday. Less than an inch of additional snow is expected over most of south central and east central Wisconsin. Very strong westerly winds will then develop Sunday morning and last into Sunday evening. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. A few gusts to 60 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory covers the entire area on Sunday into Sunday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ643>646-250015- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 615 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight Fog may become dense at times, reducing the visibility to one mile or less. Strong low pressure is forecast to move northeast into southern Wisconsin this evening and over the northern end of Lake Michigan by daybreak Sunday. Southwest gales will develop late tonight over the near shore waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Westerly gales are expected Sunday, veering to northwest Sunday night. A Gale Warning is in effect on Sunday into Sunday night. A few storm force gusts are possible on Sunday. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-250015- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 615 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Strong low pressure is forecast to move northeast into southern Wisconsin this evening and over the northern end of Lake Michigan by daybreak Sunday. Southwest gales will develop late tonight. Fog may become dense overnight, reducing the visibility to one mile or less for a time, especially over the southern part of the lake. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Westerly gales will increase to a period of Storm Force winds over the open waters on Sunday. Gusts to 55 knots are expected. A Storm Warning is in effect Sunday into Sunday evening. The winds will turn to the northwest Sunday night and begin to slowly subside, but remain at gale force into early Monday. Waves will increase to between 12 and 18 feet across eastern portions of the lake on Sunday, with occasional waves to 22 feet over the south half. The waves will slowly subside Sunday night and Monday. www.weather.gov/mkx
The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 7:29 PM CST | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | MKX | 9 hr | |
| Feb 24, 4:00 AM CST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | MKX | 56 hr | |
| Feb 24, 4:16 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MKX | Green | 64 hr |
| Feb 24, 11:06 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MKX | Kenosha | 23 hr |
| Feb 24, 2:32 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 11 more | 18 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Wisconsin, 2019Every high wind warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.