Gale Warning 21, NWS Milwaukee, WI

400 
WHUS73 KMKX 240201
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

...Northerly Gales Developing Late Sunday Afternoon...

.Northerly gale force winds will develop over the south two
thirds of Lake Michigan in the wake of a cold front late Sunday
afternoon and persist through Sunday night. A few gale force
gusts are possible across the northern third. High waves are also
expected during this period.

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-241015-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
901 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to 30 knots with gale force gusts to 35 knots 
  developing later Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds will 
  diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 8 to 12 feet, occasionally to 16 feet 
  Sunday night, then subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 
  ft Monday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-241015-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
901 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to 30 knots with gale force gusts up to 35 knots 
  developing later Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds will 
  diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet Sunday 
  night into Monday. Waves gradually subsiding Monday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

385 
WHUS73 KMKX 240830
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...North To Northeast Gales Developing Late This Afternoon...

.North to northeast gale force winds will develop over the
southern two thirds of Lake Michigan in the wake of a cold front 
late this afternoon and persist through late tonight. A few gale 
force gusts are possible across the northern third. High waves are
also expected during this period.

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-241630-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
CDT MONDAY...

The Gale Warning is now in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
4 AM CDT Monday. 

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts to
  35 knots developing later this afternoon. Northeast winds will 
  diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 8 to 12 feet tonight, occasionally to 14
  feet, then subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft Monday 
  afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-241630-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
CDT MONDAY...

The Gale Warning is now in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
4 AM CDT Monday. 

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts up
  to 35 knots developing later this afternoon. Northeast winds
  will diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 6 to 10 feet tonight into Monday. Waves 
  gradually subsiding Monday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

117 
WHUS73 KMKX 241355
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
855 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...North To Northeast Gales Developing Late This Afternoon...

.A cold front brings northeast gale force winds to the southern 
two thirds of Lake Michigan late this afternoon and tonight. High 
waves are also expected during this period.

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-242200-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
855 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts to 
  35 knots developing later this afternoon. Northeast winds will 
  diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 8 to 12 feet tonight, occasionally to 14 
  feet, then subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft Monday 
  afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-242200-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
855 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts up 
  to 35 knots developing later this afternoon. Northeast winds 
  will diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 6 to 10 feet tonight into Monday. Waves 
  gradually subsiding Monday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

477 
WHUS73 KMKX 241938
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-250415-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts to
  35 knots late this afternoon into tonight. Northeast winds will
  diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 8 to 12 feet tonight, occasionally to 14 
  feet, then subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft Monday 
  afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-250415-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.190324T2200Z-190325T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 30 knots with gale force gusts up
  to 35 knots late this afternoon into tonight. Northeast winds 
  will diminish to 30 kt by Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 6 to 10 feet tonight into Monday. Waves 
  gradually subsiding Monday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

783 
WHUS73 KMKX 250213
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
913 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...Northerly Gales Tonight...


LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-250900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190325T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
913 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 25 knots with gale force gusts to
  35 knots. Northeast winds will diminish to 20 kt by sunrise
  Monday.  

* WAVES: Building to 6 to 10 feet tonight, occasionally to 13
  feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 ft for Monday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-250900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190325T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
913 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast to 25 knots with gale force gusts up
  to 35 knots. Northeast winds will diminish to 20 kt by sunrise
  Monday.  

* WAVES: 6 to 10 feet tonight subsiding to 3 to 5 feet by early
  Monday afternoon. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

807 
WHUS73 KMKX 250812
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...Gusty Northeast Winds To Slowly Weaken Today...

.Gusty northeast winds and elevated waves are expected to 
gradually weaken today. Gale force gusts are no longer expected, 
so the Gale Warning has been cancelled. A Small Craft Advisory is 
now in effect through the middle afternoon hours.

LMZ643>646-251615-
/O.CAN.KMKX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190325T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0027.190325T0812Z-190325T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. 

* WINDS: Northeast 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots early
  this morning. Winds will gradually weaken to 10 to 20 knots 
  today.

* WAVES: 6 to 10 feet early this morning, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet
  by later this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-250915-
/O.CAN.KMKX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190325T0900Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has cancelled
the Gale Warning. 

North to northeast winds will gust to around 30 knots into this
morning, before gradually weakening. Gale force gusts are no
longer expected.

$$
Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
102 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.UPDATE...

Quiet conditions continue through the rest of the day today.
Clouds will begin to increase overnight as a low pressure system
over western Kansas shifts east. Rain chances will move into
southwestern portions of our CWA after 3 AM and shift east.
Activity will continue off and on throughout the day before
ending during the early evening. Activity will be mainly along and
south of I-94 with best chances along the Wisconsin/Illinois
border.

The main forcing with this system is 500 mb vorticity advection
over the area. There is not much in the way of lift in the lower
levels or with the upper level jet. With that being said there are
a few uncertainties with how far north precipitation will get.
There is dry air in place which will delay the incoming moisture.
Another factor to consider is the front moving through late
Sunday afternoon. This front will be bringing in dry air and
colder temperatures. This may result in a light wintry mix before
precipitation clears the area, or may end precipitation sooner if
it has more momentum than is currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the night. A lake breeze may
impact TAF sites near Lake Michigan after 20Z for a few hours
before shifting southerly again. Clouds will build into the region
overnight as rain moves into the area Sunday morning. Expect
ceilings to gradually decrease to MVFR late Sunday morning.

Rain will continue throughout the day mainly impacting areas along
and south of I-94. As a front moves through the area late Sunday
afternoon expect gusty winds from the northeast and drier air to
filter in.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 931 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019)

UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track...no changes at this time.

MARINE...

Quiet conditions expected today as high pressure shifts east. A
low pressure system will move over central Illinois Sunday, this
will interact with a cold front moving southward over the lakes
due to high pressure building in. This combination will likely
cause gale force winds over the southern two thirds of the lake
late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Therefore a Gale Watch
is in effect during this period. If guidance continues to support
gales developing, the watch will likely be upgraded to a warning.

Quiet conditions are then expected as high pressure builds in
Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 623 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019)

UPDATE...

Light ground fog is occurring at Kenosha and may occur at a few
spots for the next few hours. Otherwise, no changes to the going
forecast are needed for today.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Light ground fog is occurring at Kenosha, and may linger for a
few hours there and in other low areas. Otherwise, skies should
remain clear today with light winds. A southeast lake breeze
should develop by early to middle afternoon, and may reach
Milwaukee and Kenosha an hour or two earlier than the 20Z times
in their TAFs.

Clouds will move into the area tonight, with gradually lower
ceilings later tonight into Sunday morning. Light rain should push
into the southern portions of the area by early Sunday afternoon,
accompanied by ceilings down to 1000 to 1500 feet. May see lower
than 1000 feet toward the Illinois border Sunday afternoon and
evening. Visibility values should remain VFR for the most part.

Light winds Sunday morning and early afternoon will shift quickly
to the north and northeast and become gusty by the middle to late
afternoon, as a cold front moves south through the area. Gusts of
25 to 30 knots are possible Sunday night, lingering into Monday
near Lake Michigan.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure moving to the
southeast of the area today into tonight. The influence of the high
will continue to bring mostly sunny skies today. Winds will be light
enough for a southeast lake breeze to develop this afternoon. Highs
should reach the lower to middle 50s inland, with modest warm air
advection developing. Highs should remain around 50 near the lake,
before cooling off by later in the afternoon.

Models are showing a decent amount of differential cyclonic
vorticity advection aloft into the area later tonight, ahead of the
main 500 mb low. There is some 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis
response that clips the southern parts of the area later tonight, as
the air column gets saturated. There is enough upward motion and
moisture here for gradually increasing PoPs for light rain later
tonight from the southwest. Lows should remain in the middle to
upper 30s.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Deepening low pressure in northern Canada will result in increasing
northwest steering winds spreading into the Great Lakes on Sunday.
These winds will carry a backdoor cold front rapidly southward
across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan.  The front will sweep through
most of southern WI by 00Z Monday.  This sudden wind shift behind
the front will result in falling temperatures into the 30s in the
afternoon in the east.  In addition, short term guidance in
reasonable agreement on upstream cutoff low pressure currently in
the western high plains getting nudged east across southern IA into
IL on Sunday.  Latest 00Z deterministic guidance has shown a slight
northward trend in the circulation.  This passing system will bring
increasing column moisture into southern WI as the low level
baroclinicity increases due to the passing cold front during the
day.  A period of mid-level frontogenetical forcing brushes southern
WI on Sunday as weak isentropic lift on the 295 theta surface
spreads into southern WI as condensation pressure deficits decrease.
There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the better
moisture surges into the area, so holding into likely pops for light
precipitation for now across the far south into Sunday evening.  As
temperatures drop rapidly during the afternoon and early evening,
the rain may become briefly mixed with or change to a period of
sleet or light snow, especially in the east. The synoptic lift moves
rapidly off to the southeast Sunday night, so the mixed
precipitation should come to an end from north to south during the
evening.  Subsidence and drier air associated with high pressure
building into the region will bring dry conditions back to the area
from later Sunday night through Monday night.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

A weakening mid-level wave caught in the mid-level west-northwest
steering flow will pass across the region on Tuesday.  However it
will be fighting against subsidence and dry air in the low levels,
so wl hold off on any pop introduction for now. Clouds from this
passing disturbance may cut into the high temperatures for Tuesday,
but it should still be warmer than Monday as a lighter south to
southeasterly flow is expected. Areas close to Lake Michigan however
will remain cooler.

After the large area of ridging slides off to the east, the mid-
level steering winds will become more zonal to west-southwest by mid-
week and continue to back to the southwest for the later periods.
This will usher low level warmer air into the region for Wednesday
through Friday.  However gradually increasing column moisture is
also expected due to the increasing south winds.  An upstream long
wave trof over the eastern Pacific will weaken and retrograde
westward toward the end of the period, but not before ejecting a
weaker mid-level trof eastward somewhere into the central/northern
Plains in the Thursday/Friday time period.  This approaching system
will increasing the chance for showers across the area, beginning
Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.  The most favored
period for showers will be Thursday night into Friday as the main
low pressure trof approaches and moves through the region.  Both the
GEM and ECMWF continue the shower chances into the weekend as
secondary low pressure forms in the central Plains and moves
eastward on Saturday.  Latest GFS remains more progressive and drier
for the weekend.  Never the less, all Medium range guidance is
showing colder conditions returning as March concludes.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected into today and
tonight across the area. Light winds early this morning will become
southwest by this afternoon. A southeast lake breeze is expected to
develop this afternoon, with Milwaukee and Kenosha seeing southeast
winds by middle afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected.

Clouds will gradually increase tonight, with ceilings gradually
lowering. Should see some MVFR category ceilings move into areas
southwest of Madison after 09Z Sunday. Some light rain may move into
southern portions of the area after 06Z Sunday, though the more
persistent rainfall should hold off until after 12Z Sunday in that
area.

MARINE...Gusty north to northeast winds are expected behind a
strong cold front moving south across Lake Michigan Sunday, with
these winds lingering Sunday night into early Monday morning. Some
gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible at times, mainly over the
southern two thirds of the lake. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued
for this part of the lake from later Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. High waves of 7 to 11 feet may develop over this
area as well Sunday night into Monday.

South winds may become gusty at times during the middle to later
portions of next week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed at times
during this period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     LMZ080-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
     876-878.

&&

Update...RAR
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...RAR
Sunday THROUGH Friday...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241945-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-241945-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Brisk northeast winds and high waves are expected to develop over
the nearshore waters Sunday afternoon and last into Monday behind
a passing strong cold front. A Gale Warning is in effect beginning
Sunday afternoon, continuing until Monday morning. Lingering high
waves and gusty winds will cause Small Craft Advisory conditions
to continue through the morning on Monday.

South to southwest winds ahead of approaching low pressure may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels at times from next Wednesday
through Friday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-241945-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
237 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Brisk north to northeast winds behind a passing strong cold front
will reach gale force starting late Sunday afternoon. A Gale
Warning is in effect along and south of a line from Two Rivers to
Manistee from Sunday afternoon until Monday morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx