Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Miami, FL

938 
WGUS72 KMFL 140126
FFSMFL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

FLC011-140135-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190814T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broward FL-
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
930 PM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended and the flood waters have receded. Flooding 
is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2609 8022 2598 8025 2597 8031 2610 8027

$$

BAXTER

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
750 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east through the
southeast taf sites and should be over the Atlantic waters by 01Z.
Therefore, VCTS with a tempo into IFR conditions for storms at
KMIA, KOPF, and KTMB with VCSH and tempo into MVFR conditions for
KFXE and KFLL taf sites between 00Z and 01Z. East coast taf sites
should be dry until 18Z WED then VCTS for more thunderstorms. KAPF
taf site should see VCTS from 14Z until 18Z WED then VCSH after
18Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern over the next several days should be fairly
stagnant. The 500mb ridge that has been over the area weakens as
it builds over the western US. Also, models are indicating another
ridge building through the latter half of the week over the
western Atlantic. Models do indicate a 500mb trough, but well to
the north of region. This should allow shower and thunderstorm
development to continue through the week, with relatively few
inhibitions. Even the 500mb temps, which have been around 4.5C the
last couple of days trend downward through the week, by a degree
or two a day, until temps are about -7C on Friday. The overall
flow is southerly, with possibly a southwesterly tendency. Taking
a look at the transport wind, there is some weak convergence over
the central to eastern part of the CWA. With the sea breeze
development, this will keep the concern for urban flooding in the
forecast through at least the end of the week, if not through the
weekend.

The one notable change are the PWATs, which have been running over
2 inches. Models are indicating a slightly drier air mass will
advect in from the south beginning tomorrow. However, the PWATS
still show high, around 1.9 inches. But it is a bit drier, which
may aid in lowering the rainfall accumulations a bit. There is an
indication that there may be smaller areas of higher PWATs that do
advect over portions of the area each day, mainly over the east
coast metro areas.

So, for the remainder of the week, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain high, especially for the east coast of South
Florida, as well as the Lake region. The perpendicular flow to the
sea breeze will likely cause some training and/or backbuilding
over the eastern half of the area, keeping the chance for flooding
in the forecast, with the main issue urban street flooding. This
may become more of an issue by the end of the week as the area
becomes more and more saturated each day. this should lower the
flash flood guidance, allowing for lower amounts of rain to cause
issues as well.

By the weekend, the models are indicating some ridging at 500mb.
This may allow for a down tick in the amount of convection, but
models are still keeping a wet forecast for the CWA through the
end of the forecast period.

So in summary, basically showers and thunderstorms are forecast
for the entire forecast period, with a chance the convection could
be somewhat stronger for the latter half of the week. There may be
a few dry periods for the weekend, but will still likely see
afternoon showers and storms for the area.

MARINE...
A light wind flow will keep sea relatively calm, with wave heights
of generally up to 1 foot, maybe 2 feet at times for both the Gulf
and Atlantic waters. The main concern will be showers and
thunderstorms causing locally rough conditions and possible a few
waterspouts.

AVIATION...
Light and variable winds prevail through around 15-16Z then
turning SSW around 10kt at most sites. Sea breeze circulations
will return this afternoon with the background SSW flow keeping
the Atlantic sea breeze close to the coast, but some periods of
winds backing to the SSE are possible at the Atlantic terminals.
TEMPOS for periods of MVFR or even IFR due to thunderstorms are
in place for those same terminals this afternoon.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  89  77  91 /  50  50  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  79  90 /  40  40  30  60
Miami            79  88  79  92 /  40  40  20  50
Naples           80  88  78  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
434 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
132045-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
434 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms...
...Afternoon Heat Indices Around 100 to 108 Degrees...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will affect the South Florida
waters early this morning, with additional activity developing across
land during the late morning hours. The greatest coverage is
expected during the afternoon hours, with storms slowly drifting
eastward into the evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across all South
Florida waters.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms today will be capable of producing
wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

Flooding: Slow moving thunderstorms today will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flooding.
The greatest risk for flooding will be across the east coast metro
areas, and especially where storms repeatedly move over the same
locations.

Temperatures: Warm and humid conditions will produce afternoon heat
index readings in excess of 100 degrees for all of South Florida.
Portions of South Florida, especially inland Southwest Florida and
Palm Beach County, will see the highest values reach 105 to 108
degrees for an hour or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day through
the period across South Florida. The highest coverage of storms is
expected to shift more across the interior and Lake region by late
week. Frequent lightning, heavy rain capable of producing localized
flooding, and gusty winds will continue to be the main hazards.

Heat indices may reach around 100 to 108 degrees each afternoon
through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E COCONUT CREEK       26.27N  80.15W
08/13/2019  E3.00 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO OF THE THREE LANES OF SAMPLE ROAD IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS BETWEEN POWERLINE ROAD AND NW 18TH AVENUE ARE
            IMPASSABLE FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1900163

MOLLEDA