Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.AVIATION...
Deep convection starting over northern and western Arkansas at
this time as a cold front approaches the area. The system will
move slowly across the state tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms accompanying the boundary. Some of these storms may
be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail the primary
concern. Winds will shift from the southeast to the northwest
behind the boundary. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority
of the period with the exception of MVFR conditions when the
storms pass through. Low level moisture will remain over the north
for a good part of the day Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Satellite imagery and surface obs were showing a surface cold front
extending from around Joplin, MO southwestward through eastern OK on
into north central TX. A capping inversion was inhibiting the
development of any thunderstorms through the early afternoon hours,
but this will change as the front progresses southeastward and the
cap breaks. The front is currently on track to enter the northwest
portion of AR in a couple of hours and will sweep southeastward
through the forecast area during the evening and overnight hours.
Latest runs of short-term models were indicating the development of
discrete thunderstorms/supercells along the front beginning around
00Z. Any storms that do form will be able to tap into CAPE values
greater than 1,000 J/kg but approaching 2,000 J/kg over the
southwest portion of the state. The front will also have some upper
level support as a shortwave trough traverses the area amidst quasi-
zonal flow aloft. While large hail and strong winds are the most
likely severe weather modes, the possibility of tornadoes has crept
up some due to increased low level shear availability. Incidentally,
the SPC has placed an area of enhanced risk in the Day 1 Severe
Outlook over southwest AR in line with the aforementioned reasoning.

Drier northwest flow will develop across AR, both at the surface and
aloft, on Monday as the progressive front exits the forecast area to
the southeast and a broad mid/upper level ridge builds eastward into
the state from the western U.S. Afternoon highs will generally range
from the mid 60s over the higher terrain of northern AR to the lower
70s over the southern portion of the forecast area. Precipitation-
free conditions, along with clearing skies, will prevail Monday
night/Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure continues
to build over the state. Under mostly sunny skies with light
northeast winds on Tuesday, high temperatures will mostly range from
the upper 50s over the northern higher terrain to the mid 60s over
the south.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Upper ow pressure will be over Alabama and Georgia to begin the
extended period with a large upper ridge over the Plains. This ridge
will expand over much of the country Wednesday as the upper low
moves off the southeast coast of the U.S. By Friday, a strong upper
low pressure moves into the Rockies, moving slowly southeast
Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday will move
east of the area Thursday. Low pressure in the Plains Friday will
bring a warm front across Arkansas and the associated cold front
through the state Friday night. As instability increases, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night and will
be greatest Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be close to
normal through much of the period but below normal by Sunday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...GOUDSWARD

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
533 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-252245-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
533 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight

A cold front will continue to move into Arkansas from the
northwest this evening and eventually push through the rest of
the state tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
accompany the front. A few storms could become severe with large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.

.Spotter activation is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Unsettled weather will return to the region later in the week as a
new storm system affects Arkansas. Thunderstorm chances are in the
forecast, but the potential for any severe weather remains uncertain
at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
932 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ041-042-250315-
Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
932 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms just east of Mount Ida, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Pine...                  Meyers...
Lofton...                         Royal...
Silver...                         Crystal Springs Landing...
Sunshine...                       Pearcy...
Hurricane Grove...                Crystal Springs...
Washita...                        Hempwallace...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central, western and southwestern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 9358 3460 9314 3439 9325 3440 9341
      3439 9341 3445 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 285DEG 18KT 3454 9356

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
955 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ037-040-041-250345-
Polk AR-Scott AR-Montgomery AR-
955 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 955 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beauchamp, or 9 miles north of Mena, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Y City...                         Boles...
Parks...                          Needmore...
Cedar Creek...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
western and central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3481 9425 3484 9371 3475 9371 3474 9370
      3465 9370 3467 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 269DEG 34KT 3472 9420

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1003 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ024-033-250400-
White AR-Cleburne AR-
1003 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE AND CENTRAL
WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heber Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Searcy...                         Heber Springs...
Judsonia...                       Kensett...
Pangburn...                       Crosby...
Steprock...                       Letona...
Albion...                         Clay...
Providence...                     Dewey...
Sidon...                          Hopewell in Cleburne County...
Pickens in White County...        Armstrong Springs...
Sunnydale...                      Plainview in White County...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3537 9212 3553 9206 3544 9157 3520 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 287DEG 23KT 3542 9200

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1004 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BEE BRANCH        35.46N 92.41W
03/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          AR   PUBLIC

&&

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ023-024-031-032-250345-
Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-Conway AR-Cleburne AR-
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN CONWAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1005 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Claude, or 7 miles southwest of Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heber Springs...                  Clinton...
Greers Ferry...                   Quitman...
Damascus...                       Fairbanks...
Whipple...                        Sugar Loaf Recreation Area...
Claude...                         Choctaw...
Bee Branch...                     Beverage Town...
Austin in Conway County...        Southside in Van Buren County...
Morganton...                      Scotland...
Culpepper...                      Eden Isle...
Formosa...                        Enders...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3553 9201 3536 9209 3536 9211 3532 9211
      3528 9213 3546 9265 3560 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 285DEG 25KT 3550 9254

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1010 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ041-052-250400-
Pike AR-Montgomery AR-
1010 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIKE AND SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1010 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albert Pike Recreation Area, or 13 miles southwest of Mount Ida,
moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood...                       Norman...
Black Springs...                  Fancyhill...
Salem in Pike County...           Hopper...
Welsh...                          Caddo Gap...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central, western and southwestern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 9385 3446 9340 3443 9341 3434 9343
      3434 9348 3429 9348 3434 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 278DEG 24KT 3440 9378

46