Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Grand Forks, ND

768 
WWUS53 KFGF 120651
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
151 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

NDC091-120700-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-190712T0715Z/
Steele ND-
151 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4719 9748 4736 9719 4729 9685 4702 9682
      4701 9684 4700 9682 4698 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 290DEG 33KT 4725 9718 

$$

NDC017-097-120715-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-190712T0715Z/
Cass ND-Traill ND-
151 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES...

At 150 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hunter, or 30
miles northwest of Fargo, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Kelso around 200 AM CDT.
  Grandin around 205 AM CDT.
  Gardner around 210 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include West
Argusville.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 76 and 98.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4719 9748 4736 9719 4729 9685 4702 9682
      4701 9684 4700 9682 4698 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 290DEG 33KT 4725 9718 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

VG

409 
WWUS53 KFGF 120715
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
215 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

NDC017-097-120724-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-190712T0715Z/
Cass ND-Traill ND-
215 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS AND
SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4719 9748 4736 9719 4729 9685 4702 9682
      4701 9684 4700 9682 4698 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 312DEG 23KT 4714 9706 

$$

VG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Updrafts are struggling to develop or maintain with strong CAP in
place and limited organized/large scale forcing over our CWA
(still further north with main shortwave). Cold front is still
approaching from the west and may help initiate isolated
activity, but with coverage already low (and failure for cold
pool driven MCS to develop) CAMs are struggling run-run to reflect
lack of any thunderstorm coverage locally. Elevated instability
in the 1500 J/KG based on sounding analysis and deep layer shear
is still in place across our northeast, so if an updraft were to
develop and hold together isolated hail/wind threat can't be ruled
out, but overall severe threat appears to be decreasing. Trended
PoPs down, but still may be running too high considering
radar/satellite trends upstream (we may stay dry tonight for most
locations).

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Minor adjustments to sky/wx otherwise forecast is still on track
for increasing thunderstorm chances/possible thunderstorm
cluster/MCS this evening (favored timing 2-4Z north 4-7Z central
valley), with weakening trend as it shift east-southeast. Still
low consensus on any initiation further southwest with strong
CINh still in place. Activity already initiating over Manitoba
with organized cells drifting east-southeast. This lines up with
timing of most CAMs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Main question of the day will be timing and coverage of convection
mainly across the north and its evolution. An upcoming mesoscale
discussion will provide a more in depth look at the event for the
evening into the overnight. A quick glance of parameters and
surface features depicts a SFC low pressure centered over the
Manitoba lakes and a trailing cold front stretching to the SW
into NW ND. Bulk shear values tonight along with steep mid level
lapse rates and moderate instability will create the potential for
supercellular storm mode. CAMs continue to depict initiation in
the 00 to 02Z time frame along the international border with
expansion to the SE into the overnight. Main hazards will include
hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts to 75mph and even a possible
tornado or two.

Showers and storms will move out the MN lakes and trees area
before dawn with light north winds expected for Friday. Friday
afternoon temps will climb to around 80 with mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

There are not any major threats to identify for the upcoming
extended forecast period, at least not at this point in time. Heat
indices may briefly approach 100 over the extreme SW forecast
area on Sun.

The main 500 mb pattern from Saturday into next week will remain
zonal flow along the US/Canadian border. Seasonably warm and humid
weather for the period, typical for mid July. In the westerly flow
aloft, there will be several 500 mb short waves and with this some
chances for thunderstorms as they move through. Due to various model
timing differences in these waves, using a model blend gives chances
for thunderstorms most days. A weak upper wave could bolster thunder
chances Sat night with perhaps another increased risk presenting the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period with light
winds less than 10kt shifting to the north-northwest as a cold
front moves through the region. We still can't rule out a shower
or thunderstorm north of Highway 200 tonight, but confidence is
greatly diminished across most of the region. KTVF and KBJI have
best chance, but even then confidence in thunderstorms within
vicinity of the terminals is now too low to introduce VCTS
(limited mention to VCSH).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-
121215-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Chances for off and on thunderstorms exist from Friday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-121215-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast North
Dakota and northwest MInnesota this evening. The main hazards
will be large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts up
to 75 mph. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Chances for off and on thunderstorms exist from Friday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
132 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

MNZ002-003-NDZ029-030-039-120715-
Clay MN-Norman MN-Steele ND-Traill ND-Cass ND-
132 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN
NORMAN...NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHERN TRAILL AND SOUTHEASTERN STEELE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 131 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blanchard, or 38 miles northwest of Fargo, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Blanchard around 135 AM CDT.
  Kelso around 145 AM CDT.
  Grandin around 150 AM CDT.
  Halstad and Gardner around 155 AM CDT.
  Hendrum around 200 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include West Argusville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4728 9770 4747 9740 4727 9635 4694 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 287DEG 43KT 4734 9729

VG