Tornado Warning 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 410 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

Message of the day: Flooding remains the main concern, with rain
chances continuing this afternoon. Severe weather is also still a
concern, but mainly in central/eastern MO this afternoon, with a
chance for severe weather in northeast KS/northwest MO around
sunset.

Currently, a strong low pressure system, centered over southwest KS,
is working its way through the Plains, bringing showers and storms
across our area. The main concern has been and continues to be
flash flooding. We have received an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall mainly near the MO/KS border since 7 AM this morning,
with up to an additional three quarters of an inch possible for
the rest of the day. Central MO hasn't seen as much rain since 7
AM this morning yet, but an additional 1-2 inches is possible
before all is said and done tonight. Due to numerous roadways
closed from flooding and the fact that rain is expected to
continue over the next few hours in most areas, have extended the
areal flood warnings until 3 AM to allow time for the water to
subside. Additional flood warnings will be issued in other places
if necessary. The flash flood watch is still in effect until 7 PM
tonight and will likely be allowed to expire at this time as flash
flooding concerns should diminish after this time.

As for the severe weather threat, a warm front has been slowly
working its way north through KS and MO, and is currently from
about Miami County, KS over to Jefferson County, MO. This and the
squall line in central MO will be the focus for the first round of
possible severe weather. Environmentally speaking, we have high
deep layer shear (75 kts) and low CAPE (500 J/kg), with dew points
in the low 60s, and unimpressive lapse rates. Our 0-3 km shear
and 0-3 km SRH is about 50 kts and roughly 500 m2/s2. While we
don't have much instability to work with, the strong shear poses a
concern; therefore, the main threat is a couple of quickly
developing tornadoes over the next few hours in central MO. As a
result, a tornado watch has been issued until 10 PM for Randolph,
Howard, and Cooper counties in MO. We will also be looking out for
damaging straight-line winds up to 65 mph. As for hail, can't
completely rule it out, but the risk is low for Randolph, Howard,
and Cooper counties in MO. This area of storms is expected to move
east, and be out of our area shortly after sunset.

An additional round of severe weather is also possible from the KC
Metro, north of the MO River, and northward west of I-35, from
around sunset through about midnight. This will be associated with
the center of the low pressure system moving through the area.
Deep layer shear is strong (around 55 kts) with decent CAPE (1500
J/kg) and mid-level lapse rates. Low-level shear and helicity are
about 30 kts and 200 m2/s2. Therefore, hail up to quarter-sized
and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible and can't rule out
the possibility of a tornado or two.

After tonight, the low pressure system will move into MN, leaving us
in southerly flow both at the surface and aloft. We will remain dry
during the day Wednesday, but a shortwave trough and another warm
front will move into the area, giving us storm chances Wednesday
night into Thursday. A few storms could be strong to severe.
On/off storm chances will continue into the holiday weekend as
shortwave troughs round an upper level high pressure centered over
the southeast U.S.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with the
exception of the first hour to two hours. A line of storms has
developed in eastern KS with tracks to the north-northeast. On
this path they would mainly affect STJ and MCI. Have added a brief
-TSRA mention to the KMCI forecast. Will monitor STJ and amend as
 needed.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ007-008-
     013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
418 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-220930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
418 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms are expected this morning into the
afternoon. Severe weather in the form of large hail, damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Flash flooding will be
possible in the strongest activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Active weather will continue late in the workweek into the weekend as
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms occur. River flooding
will be ongoing.

Blair

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TORNADO          5 NE MUSCOTAH           39.60N 95.44W
05/21/2019                   ATCHISON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.
            RELAYED FROM NWS TOP.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
754 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TORNADO          4 SW HURON              39.61N 95.41W
05/21/2019                   ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ACTIVE TORNADO AT 310TH AN EDWARDS RD.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
755 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW EDGERTON          38.85N 95.05W
05/21/2019  E50 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
756 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MOZ020-021-028-029-220130-
Platte MO-Buchanan MO-Clinton MO-Clay MO-
756 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY...CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Trimble, or 7 miles north of Smithville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Smithville, Plattsburg, Gower, Stewartsville, Trimble,
Edgerton, Osborn, Easton, Turney and Ridgely.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 51 and
53.

LAT...LON 3975 9464 3975 9423 3974 9421 3972 9421
      3939 9459 3951 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 224DEG 31KT 3949 9459

PP