Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Duluth, MN

588 
WHUS43 KDLH 060057
CFWDLH

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Duluth MN
757 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019

MNZ037-WIZ001-060200-
/O.CAN.KDLH.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-190906T0100Z/
Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
757 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Duluth has cancelled the Beach
Hazards Statement.

Winds and wave have diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Latest short term hires models are slowing down the arrival of the
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Have adjusted pops and weather
grids accordingly. Other minor changes also made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Mostly clear skies late today into this evening, then increasing
clouds from the west with a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms possible beginning in the predawn hours of Thursday
morning through Thursday evening due to an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough. Any storms that develop will not be severe. Highs
in the 60s today, ranging from the 60s to mid 70s on Thursday as
southerly flow developing ahead of the wave advects in warm air
across east-central MN briefly. Lows tonight and tomorrow night in
the mid 40s to mid 50, which is typical for early September.

On the synoptic scale a northwest flow pattern aloft will result in
a mid-level shortwave trough tracking east across the US/Canada
border over the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest tonight into
Thursday. There is a possibility for a few thunderstorms to develop
on the leading edge of this wave early Thursday morning, most likely
in north-central Minnesota, but any early storm activity will be
isolated and is not anticipated to be severe. Scattered to
widespread showers and perhaps a few isolated storms will then move
across the region on Thursday, with the weak resultant surface low
over central Minnesota by mid-day, into western Wisconsin by the
evening hours. As cool stable air wraps around the low from the
north, the convective showers may transition to more of a stratiform
rain/drizzle Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with
fog/drizzle possible through Thursday night. While the low will be
weak, there will be a window for strong northeast winds across the
head of Lake Superior Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with
a brief bout of gusts to 20-30 knots possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Cool weather this weekend with a low chance for light precipitation
in parts of central Minnesota on Saturday, then widespread rain
showers and perhaps a few storms likely early next week. Highs
generally in the 60s with lows in the 40s to low 50s, though some
lows in the 30s possible Saturday night and Sunday night depending
on cloud cover. There is more than the usual amount of spread across
guidance late weekend into next week, but the general theme of near
to slightly below normal temps and a cloudy/sometimes wet pattern is
the common theme across all guidance, even if there are major
differences in timing.

On the synoptic scale the northwest flow pattern aloft continues
through the first half of the weekend with a mid-level tracking
across the Dakotas and weakening towards the mid-Mississippi River
Valley on Saturday into Sunday. There will be a broad area of
precipitation over the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest from
this wave, but with a strong surface high building in from the
north, this system will just bring a low chance for precipitation to
parts of central/east-central Minnesota on Saturday, then cool and
drier Canadian air moves in from the north due to the high pressure
building in. A mid/upper level longwave ridge builds in late weekend
into early next week ahead of the next trough, though model
differences vary widely on whether there will be a prolonged break
in precip or if the pattern will be more progressive bringing precip
chances back as early as Sunday. At low levels, a broad warm frontal
zone will lift northeastward over the northern Great Plains and
Upper Midwest on Monday into Tuesday leading to widespread showers
and a few storms as well as temperatures warming up to near normal.
Rainfall amounts will be around a half inch to an inch at least, but
perhaps even more depending on how slowly the front moves across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019

VFR conditions will prevail for most areas until around 10 to
12Z, though with pockets of clear skies early, there may be some
patchy fog. Visibilities will be variable though with clouds
moving through the region. Otherwise, skies will become broken to
overcast tonight as an area of low pressure moves in from the
west. This will bring showers and perhaps some thunder mainly
during the morning hours with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible, especially at DLH/BRD. Low clouds with light rain
showers, drizzle, and fog will be likely during the afternoon,
with most guidance suggesting a gradual ceiling decline to MVFR
and eventually IFR by late afternoon at most sites and continuing
through the remainder of the period. Light to calm winds are
expected overnight with south to southeasterly winds developing on
Thursday around 5 to 10 kt, occasionally gusting to around 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

An approaching area of low pressure will lead to a brief period
of strong northeast winds on Thursday as well as showers with a
low chance of thunderstorms. Ahead of the low, weak southwest to
southeast winds around 5 knots or so tonight, then northeast/east
winds ramp up quickly on Thursday, with winds as strong as 15 to
20 knots at the head of the lake on Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for a brief
time. Winds then turn more northerly later Thursday night and
weakening, 5 to 10 knots. Weak southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  62  52  70 /  40  90  70  10
INL  48  62  47  70 /  40  80  20  20
BRD  53  73  54  73 /  40  80  20  10
HYR  46  70  53  71 /  10  80  60  10
ASX  44  68  52  70 /  10  80  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Melde/JS
MARINE...GSF/JJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-052045-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
338 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm in north-
central Minnesota late tonight. Storms will not be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Increasing northeast winds on Thursday may lead to a high risk for
rip currents along the beaches of Minnesota and Wisconsin Points in
the Duluth and Superior area.

There is a chance for a few thunderstorms on Thursday, but storms
are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-052045-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
338 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong northeast winds will quickly develop on Thursday into
Thursday evening at the head of Lake Superior, causing winds as
high as 15 to 20 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed over the nearshore waters from Two Harbors
to Duluth and Duluth to Port Wing Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

In addition, a thunderstorm or two is possible Thursday across
western Lake Superior. Any storms that develop will not be severe.

JJM

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)