Alert archive / New York / Frost Advisories in 2019

Frost Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

October 4, 201910 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this frost advisory at Oct 4, 2019, 3:31 AM EDT for 10 counties in New York. It took effect at Oct 5, 2019, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2019, 3:31 AM EDT (07:31 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 5, 2019, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 5, 2019, 9:00 AM EDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 142 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

795 
WWUS71 KBUF 040731
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

NYZ007-008-041545-
/O.UPG.KBUF.FZ.A.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
331 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected away
  from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-041545-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
331 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-041545-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
331 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
232 
WWUS71 KBUF 041417
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

NYZ007-008-042230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1017 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected 
  away from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-042230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
1017 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-042230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1017 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
779 
WWUS71 KBUF 041743
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

NYZ007-008-050145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected away
  from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-050145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-050145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
303 
WWUS71 KBUF 042219
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
619 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

NYZ007-008-050630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
619 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected 
  away from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-050630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
619 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-050630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
619 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
430 
WWUS71 KBUF 050251
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

NYZ007-008-051100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1051 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected 
  away from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-051100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
1051 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-051100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1051 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
073 
WWUS71 KBUF 050824
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

NYZ007-008-051300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s expected 
  away from Lake Ontario.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ021-051300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the lower 30s expected.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-051300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation away from the lakeshores.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Erie, Genesee, 
  Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

TMA
782 
WWUS71 KBUF 051250
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
850 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

NYZ007-008-051400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
850 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will continue to warm through the morning, ending the
threat of freezing temperatures.

$$

NYZ021-051400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
850 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will continue to warm through the morning, ending the
threat of freezing temperatures.

$$

NYZ004>006-010>014-019-020-085-051400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-191005T1300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
850 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will continue to warm through the morning, ending the
threat of frost.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Oct 4, 1:19 AM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 1:19 AM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be damp on the cool side overnight into Friday morning...as
a weak area of low pressure will move from Pennsylvania to the East
coast. High pressure over the Upper Great lakes Friday morning will
then slowly move across the region late Friday and Friday night.
This will set the stage for dry but chilly weather for the first
half of the weekend when there will also be the risk for early
morning frost.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
It will remain overcast and damp overnight...as a weak surface low
along the Pennsylvania-New York border will track to the east along
a nearly stationary frontal boundary. There will be enough lift
associated with the passing wave to generate some light rain and
drizzle...although the bulk of the forcing will come from a
moist upslope flow.

A look at this past evenings sounding shows why the bulk of the
precipitation is falling as patchy LIGHT rain and drizzle.
While the lowest 6000 feet of the environment is nearly
saturated...a deep dry layer lies above. This prevents the
microphysics of coalescence to allow for the drizzle to grow
into true rain drops.

On Friday, there will be slow improvement as high pressure and
anticyclonic low-level flow begins to build into region. Plenty of
low-level moisture will remain and with H85 temps only 0-1C there
may be some lake response for some showers. Eventually though the
high will begin to win out, leading to drier weather in the
afternoon. Clouds will be slow to decrease, though they will
begin to clear off toward evening. The clouds will and upslope
flow will hold down high temps into the low to mid 50s most
areas. For reference, normal high temps are in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will cross our region Friday night, allowing
temperatures to plummet under clear skies and light winds. The core
of the cold air aloft will be located over our eastern zones and
here is where we'll keep the freeze watch going. Temperatures will
approach freezing in the cold Southern Tier spots...but we're not
expecting several hours of sub-freezing temperatures over a
widespread area...and thus will hold off on any freeze headlines at
this time. Across the Lake Plain lows will drop off into the 30s,
and widespread frost is likely away from the shoreline.

Saturday a pleasant day is expected as the surface high exits to our
east and a southerly return flow develops. Under mostly sunny skies
afternoon temperatures will rebound back into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Saturday night we will see clouds increase from the west...these
ahead of a large Midwest storm system. The low center of this system
will track from MN Saturday night to north of Lake Superior Sunday
and then onto Hudson Bay. A cold front will approach our region
Saturday night and this will bring a return to light shower chances
across mainly WNY.

Sunday as the front continues to slow and push into our region rain
showers will become possible over the entire region. The moisture
thins a bit Sunday over our region, and not until Sunday night when
a surface wave brings deeper moisture along the briefly stalled
front will rain showers become more numerous and heavier. Rainfall
could become moderate to briefly heavy Sunday night through the
southern Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region (near the front
itself and deeper moisture) with a period of soaking rain possible.
Farther to the west and north rainfall will not be as much.

This front and ribbon of deeper moisture will continue to push
eastward Monday, though rainfall chances will continue through the
day as a shortwave trough of low pressure tracks across the Great
Lakes region. Air temperatures Monday behind the front will be about
5 degrees cooler than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the main frontal zone will be to our east by Monday night...
its parent mid/upper level trough will still have to cross our
region. Cooler air and a temporary increase in moisture attendant to
this feature should support some additional scattered light
showers...with some lake enhancement possible downwind of the lakes.
Otherwise it will be a cooler night...with lows ranging through the
40s areawide.

By Tuesday morning this system should be mainly east of our area...
with the medium range guidance then coming into much better
agreement on deep-layer ridging and much drier air building from the
Upper Great Lakes to New England through the balance of the period.
This should result in a return to fair dry weather for the Tuesday-
Thursday period...while the combination of increasing subsidence
aloft and a developing southerly return flow on the backside of the
surface ridge support a steady warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.
Under this regime...daytime highs initially in the upper 50s to
lower 60s on Tuesday should climb back to the mid to upper 60s by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR to MVFR cigs will remain in place across the region tonight...as
a wealth of low level moisture will remain trapped beneath a
pronounced subsidence inversion. Weak synoptic lift from a passing
surface wave will combine with an upslope flow to generate some
light rain over the region as well.

Conditions will grudgingly improve during the day Friday when drier
air in the mid levels will slowly entrain into our stratus deck.
MVFR to IFR cigs will thus improve to VFR by mid-late afternoon...
first across the Eastern Lake Ontario and lastly across the Southern
Tier.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have dropped off considerably across the Lower Great Lakes.
The only small craft advisories that are in place are for winds that
will freshen on Lake Ontario later tonight and early Friday.

As a large surface high from the Upper Mississippi Valley builds
across the Great Lakes region Friday afternoon and night...winds and
waves will once again drop off. Light winds with negligible waves
can then be anticipated as we start the upcoming weekend. East to
southwest winds will then freshen throughout the region Saturday
afternoon and night...with moderate to occasional fresh southerlies
will then be in place for Sunday. While winds will be close to small
craft advisory levels at that time...the highest waves will be
confined mainly to Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA
NEAR TERM...HSK/JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK/RSH
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 4:34 AM EDT, 22 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-040845-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Much cooler air will move into the region late this week. Frost is
possible Friday night and early Saturday morning across much of the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-040845-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Much cooler air will move into the region late this week. Frost and
below freezing temperatures are possible Friday night and early
Saturday morning across much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-040845-
Jefferson-Lewis-
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-040845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 3:31 AM EDTFreeze WarningBUFAllegany, Jefferson, Lewis29 hr

Nearby

Frost Advisories in New York, 2019Every frost advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.