Alert archive / New York / Blizzard Warnings in 2019
Blizzard Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this blizzard warning at Feb 23, 2019, 11:55 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Feb 24, 2019, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 25 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2019, 11:55 AM EST (16:55 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 24, 2019, 6:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 25, 2019, 6:44 PM EST
- In force
- 25 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 5:14 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | Highmarket, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 25, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.7 | 8 N Redfield, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 25, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 E Osceola, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 25, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6 | Lowville, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 25, 12:00 PM EST | SNOW 10 | 3 Ssw Redfield, NY |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1057 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
038 WWUS41 KBUF 231655 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ006>008-240100- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-240100- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-240100- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
10 follow-up statements
170 WWUS41 KBUF 232351 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ006>008-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-241000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 651 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock/JJR
381 WWUS41 KBUF 240852 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 NYZ006>008-241700- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 352 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-241700- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 352 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-241700- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 352 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow and brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
881 WWUS41 KBUF 241647 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1147 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 NYZ006>008-250100- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1147 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-250100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 1147 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 75 mph will produce significant blowing snow with brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-250100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.190224T2000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 1147 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce significant blowing and drifting snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
355 WWUS41 KBUF 242358 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 NYZ006>008-251000- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 658 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...Through 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-250900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 658 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 65 to 70 mph will produce significant blowing snow with brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...Through 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-251000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 658 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce significant blowing and drifting snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...Through 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JJR
544 WWUS41 KBUF 250250 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 950 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 NYZ006>008-251100- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 950 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...Through 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ010-011-250900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 950 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will produce significant blowing snow with brief whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...Through 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-251100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 950 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will produce significant blowing and drifting snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...Through 1 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JJR
841 WWUS41 KBUF 250826 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 326 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 NYZ010-011-250930- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 326 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Lake effect snow has now pushed to the south of Northern Erie and Genesee Counties. $$ NYZ006>008-251630- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 326 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ004-005-251630- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.190225T2100Z-190226T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 326 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will create blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-251630- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 326 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will create significant blowing and drifting snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
486 WWUS41 KBUF 251323 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 823 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 NYZ007-251430- /O.CAN.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 823 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... An organized lake effect snow band has moved south of Jefferson county. Scattered lake effect snow showers will persist through the morning with periods of blowing snow. $$ NYZ006-008-252100- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville 823 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-251800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 823 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting snow and brief whiteouts. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.190225T2100Z-190226T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 823 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will create blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
594 WWUS41 KBUF 251800 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 100 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 NYZ012-019-020-085-251900- /O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 100 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... Multiple, narrow lake effect bands will persist through the afternoon hours as they drift south and weaken. Snowfall rates of less than an inch per hour are expected through the afternoon. Additional accumulation of 1-2 inches can be expected in most persistent bands. $$ NYZ006-008-252100- /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville 100 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ004-005-260200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.190225T2100Z-190226T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 100 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will create blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
122 WWUS41 KBUF 251925 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 225 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 NYZ006-008-260300- /O.EXT.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/ Oswego-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville 225 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. && $$ NYZ004-005-260330- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.190225T2100Z-190226T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 225 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will create blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
994 WWUS41 KBUF 252344 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 644 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 NYZ006-260900- /O.CAN.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 644 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the southern third of the county, with little elsewhere. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ008-260045- /O.CAN.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 644 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... Snow and winds have both diminished across the area...therefore the blizzard warning has been cancelled. $$ NYZ004-005-260900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 644 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JJR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Feb 23, 8:48 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 8:48 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
848 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift eastward into New England today, which will
maintain dry weather for most of the day. A strong storm system will
then track across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Canada tonight
and Sunday. This system will spread rain showers across our area
tonight, with its powerful trailing cold front then crossing the
area on Sunday and ushering in an extended period of widespread
damaging winds that will last through Sunday night. Meanwhile,
colder air behind the front will result in snow and blowing snow,
especially east of Lake Ontario on Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue to drift east across New England
today. A very dense cirrus shield is spreading northeast across the
eastern Great Lakes this morning ahead of this system. These cirrus
clouds are opaque enough to block the sun, so expect a cloudy day
across the region today. A light rain shower can't be ruled out
across the Western Southern Tier late this afternoon, but by and
large it will be dry today. Temperatures will also rise today, aided
by an increasing southerly downslope flow near the Lake Erie
shoreline. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s, except
upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and across parts of the Western
Southern Tier.
Tonight, low pressure will rapidly strengthen as it tracks from the
mid-western state and across Lake Michigan. A deep mid-level
southwesterly flow will place our region with a broad but
diffuse warm air advection this evening. This may result in
some light rain showers, but the steadier precipitation won't
arrive until late in the night with the approach of the
shortwave and a diffulent flow in the upper levels. Even so,
model consensus suggests precipitation amounts will be light
tonight, averaging between a tenth and a third of an inch. This
is because the strongest warm air advection will pass to our
south. A period of elevated instability late tonight may bring a
few rumbles of thunder to portions of the Southern Tier.
Temperatures will be close to freezing at the onset of precipitation
across portions of the Western Southern Tier and North Country. For
the Western Southern Tier, the NAM appears to be running colder than
most other guidance but with increasing southerly winds
temperatures are likely to be just above freezing at the onset.
If not, precipitation would be freezing rain since there will
already be a warm layer in place aloft. The potential for mixed
precipitation is greater across the North Country, where it
probably will be below freezing in some spots when precipitation
starts late tonight. However there thermal profiles suggest a
mix of snow and sleet at the onset, with a potential for some
freezing rain just before the warm surface air arrives. At this
point, confidence was not there to issue an advisory with the
risk for freezing rain limited.
Although this will be small compared to the main wind event, it does
appear that downslope regions across Chautauqua County will reach
advisory criteria late tonight with gusts to 50 mph. NAM/GFS
guidance show a 40-50 kt flow below the inversion at 2kft which is
likely to mix down partially across the Chautauqua Ridge and near
the lakeshore.
Under strong warm air advection temperatures will be rising
through the night. By daybreak Sunday temperatures will be in
the 40s across most of the area, with readings pushing 50 across
the lake plains due to downsloping.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A high impact weather event will unfold this period, with
unseasonable warmth to start, followed by widespread damaging winds,
only to end with lake effect snow with possible blizzard-like
conditions.
To start Sunday mild air will be flowing across the region, this
ahead of a surface low that will be around 978 mb over northern lake
Michigan. An area of rain will be exiting the North Country Sunday
morning, with scattered showers found farther westward over WNY.
This surface low will track across the SOO region Sunday morning,
while pushing a cold front across our region late Sunday morning and
early afternoon. The passage of this frontal boundary (with perhaps
a line of convective showers) will commence the very strong winds
that will ramp up through the afternoon hours. The 00Z models
continue the consistent track of the deepening surface low across
the SOO and into southern Canada along with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ,
though they all tend to favor about a 6-hr later time frame for when
the surface low bottoms out around 971 mb. This will delay the onset
of the stronger winds a few hours across our region. We will
maintain the wind headlines and lakeshore flood headlines as is.
This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 mb
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 mb) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours or early afternoon hours and continuing through
Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon
behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow
dipping below 1K feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75
mph downwind of Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. This period
just behind the cold front is when we could see these 75 mph wind
gusts.
Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning
hours peaking well into the 50s across western New York. A few 60
degree readings are possible in the Genesee Valley within this
anomalous weather pattern. These temperatures will not be near
record values (record maximum temperatures were set for this date
just two years ago, with several stations recording all-time
February highs in the 70s). Temperatures across western New York
will begin to fall by noontime as the surface cold front crosses the
region. Additional rainfall Sunday will be on the order of a tenth
or two.
Behind the cold front Sunday evening winds will continue from the
southwest-west direction with continued gusts 60 mph and greater.
What will also make this wind event concerning will be the prolonged
period of damaging winds, with gusts over 60 mph possible for about
a 12 hour period. This lengthy period of winds battering the region
could increase the severity of this wind event. Strong winds will
persist into Sunday night, this will be more of a west to west-
northwest direction as the surface low tracks across southern
Quebec.
Winds will eventually begin to decrease later Sunday night as the
surface low begins to fill across Canada. By Monday morning the last
areas to drop below high wind warning criteria will likely be along
the southern Lake Ontario shoreline, and the hill tops of Wyoming
County and the Bristol Hills.
The 850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of snow
will form to the east and then southeast of the Lakes.
On Lake Erie...there will likely be slivers of open water, in
addition to latent heat flux through thin or broken ice waters. This
in addition to upstream moisture for Lake Huron will bring lake
effect snow, and upslope snows to the Niagara Frontier and the So.
Tier...with greatest snow accumulations through Monday across the
Boston Hills and Ski Country. Here 3 to 5 inches of snow will
fall...though measuring this snow will be quite difficult as strong
winds will create blowing and drifting to the snow. These winds,
combined with cellular bursts of snow will create white-out
conditions at times. Will add this potential to the HWO, as
headlines may be needed in the future to account for the snow and
poor visibilities.
On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect
snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon.
This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario,
though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County,
as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are
expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall
enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind
convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario
will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of
lake snow.
While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to
potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and
Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like
conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing
snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to
northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow
across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly
begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night.
However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state.
Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s,
with temperatures 12Z Monday morning some 20 to 30F degrees cooler
than where they were 24 hours prior.
Monday the surface low will continue to fill as it tracks across
southern Quebec and towards the Canadian Maritimes and as the upper
level low becomes vertically stacked overhead. While there will
still be a few lingering wind gusts to 60 mph early in the day, all
areas should be below 45 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Surface high pressure will build towards the region Monday night and
this will further reduce wind speeds across the region. It will be
cold Monday night with temperatures dropping to the low single
digits east of Lake Ontario and lower teens to single digits across
WNY. This surface high pressure will also bring in a drier airmass,
one that will begin to weaken lingering bands of snow to the
southeast of Lake Ontario.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday surface high pressure should be passing overhead. This
feature and its associated dry air will end lake effect snow to the
southeast of Lake Ontario through the morning hours, while providing
a dry day elsewhere.
Tuesday night and Wednesday would be the time period for the
next system, but models continue to be at odds on where and even
if this system will materialize. The GFS and several ensemble
members continue to bring one through the region while the ECMWF
has been steadfast in keeping surface high pressure over the
region. The origins of the model discrepancies may be due to a
developing rex block over the Pacific Northwest with poor
downstream model handling.
Confidence may be slightly higher, at least for the lack of
precipitation for the end of the week, assuming a surface ridge
either continues or rebuilds. Temperatures however still quite
uncertain with no clear signal on whether we'll see arctic flow
(ECMWF) or warmer air within a zonal flow (GFS).
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure across eastern New York state will drift east into New
England. There still are some lingering stratus with cloud bases
near 3k feet east of Lake Ontario and these will gradually dissipate
by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect general VFR conditions today as
the high slowly departs eastward across New England. A dense shield
of high cirrus will continue to overspread the region.
Rain will move in from the southwest this evening, with
conditions lowering to MVFR with or shortly after the arrival
of the rain. LLWS is possible late tonight as winds aloft
increase, but do not readily mix to the surface. Downsloping
will keep most sites in the MVFR flight category late tonight,
except across the western Southern Tier where IFR conditions
will prevail.
Outlook...
Sunday...Strong winds developing, otherwise MVFR/IFR with
rain showers.
Sunday night...Continued strong winds, otherwise MVFR/IFR
with rain showers changing to snow showers.
Monday...VFR/MVFR in scattered snow showers. Local IFR in
heavier lake effect snow and blowing snow.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR in scattered snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will slide east onto New England today with generally
light winds prevailing.
A powerful storm system will then track through the Central Great
Lakes and into Southern Canada tonight through Sunday night. Model
consensus continues to show 925mb winds of 60-70 knots in a post-
frontal cold air advection regime. Based on this, have upgraded to
storm warnings across the lakes, with gales on the Niagara River.
Winds will gradually diminish late Sunday night into Monday, when
the Storm warning will likely need to be replaced with gales.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain will develop tonight into Sunday. Rainfall
amounts look to be relatively minor with about a quarter to
perhaps a third of an inch expected. Temperatures will rise
tonight into Sunday with Thawing Degree Hours reaching a
threshold where ice begins to move by tonight. Ice thickness is
around 2-3 inches on the Buffalo creeks. Ice of this thickness
typically breaks up rather quickly, resulting in ice flows and
minor jams. Typically, this is not enough ice to cause major ice
jams, but there is some risk that there are larger chunks along
the shores or locked in place. The most susceptible areas to
ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks and Cattaraugus Creek, although
they can happen anywhere.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Powerful winds gusting up to 75 mph will result in significant water
rises in the eastern basins of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Sunday and Sunday night.
Lake Erie...Lakeshore flooding is expected, and this is likely
to be a high end event. Guidance suggests levels on eastern Lake
Erie are likely to reach 11 feet which is about a foot below
the record values of 12.08 on December 2, 1985. As a result,
this may impact some locations which are not typically impacted.
For reference, warning criteria is 8 ft.
In addition, rises will break up ice in place on the lake, and
this will get pushed onto shoreline areas likely causing
damage to the immediate lakeshore, including the Buffalo Harbor
and Buffalo waterfront. Ice chunks may damage structures, and
even get pushed into rivers and creeks flowing into Lake Erie. Ice
will also get pushed across the Niagara River Ice Boom into the
Upper Niagara River likely causing damage along shoreline areas
of the Upper Niagara River.
The highest water levels will be Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening.
Lake Ontario...Significant water rises and high waves are
expected to impact shoreline areas from Oswego county to the
Saint Lawrence River. Ice in place, especially at the northeast
end extending to the Saint Lawrence River will get pushed onto
shoreline areas likely causing damaging. Areas which may be
particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are Sandy
Pond, Black River Bay, Chaumont Bay, and the Thousand Islands
Region of the Saint Lawrence River. Ice blocks will get pushed
onshore, and possibly into rivers and creeks flowing into Lake
Ontario. While Lake Ontario does not respond as dramatically to
a lake seiche, guidance suggests a 1-2 foot rise across the
eastern end of the Lake. This combined with waves which may
reach 25 feet is likely to have a major impact on the immediate
lakeshore.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085.
Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday
for NYZ001-010-019-085.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
NYZ004>008-012>014-020-021.
Lakeshore Flood Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday
for NYZ006-007.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for NYZ006>008.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ019.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
LEZ040-041.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
LOZ030.
Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
LOZ042>044-062>064.
Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
LOZ045-065.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas/Zaff
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...TMA/Apffel
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA/ApffelHazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 4:13 AM EST, 7 hours 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 NYZ004-005-013-014-240915- Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003-240915- Monroe- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-240915- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>044-062>064-240915- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ045-065-240915- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-240915- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-240915- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-240915- Lewis- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-007-240915- Oswego-Jefferson- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Lakeshore Flood Warning. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-020-021-240915- Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Lake effect snow will develop Sunday night and Monday. While snow amounts may never exceed 4 inches, the very strong winds will create significant blowing snow with potential for near zero visibility at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ002-011-240915- Orleans-Genesee- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Lake effect snow will develop Sunday night and Monday. While snow amounts may never exceed 4 inches, the very strong winds will create significant blowing snow with potential for near zero visibility at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-010-085-240915- Niagara-Northern Erie-Southern Erie- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Lakeshore Flood Warning. Lake effect snow will develop Sunday night and Monday. While snow amounts may never exceed 4 inches, the very strong winds will create significant blowing snow with potential for near zero visibility at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-240915- Chautauqua- 413 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. High Wind Warning. Lakeshore Flood Warning. Lake effect snow will develop Sunday night and Monday. While snow amounts may never exceed 4 inches, the very strong winds will create significant blowing snow with potential for near zero visibility at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 3:29 AM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Chautauqua | 27 hr |
| Feb 23, 3:35 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 8 hr |
| Feb 23, 3:37 AM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 48 hr | |
| Feb 23, 3:37 AM EST | Storm Warning | BUF | 59 hr | |
| Feb 23, 11:55 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming | 49 hr |
Nearby
Blizzard Warnings in New York, 2019Every blizzard warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.