Tornado Warning 19, NWS La Crosse, WI

378 
WWUS53 KARX 201432
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
932 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC053-063-081-201500-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190720T1500Z/
La Crosse WI-Jackson WI-Monroe WI-
932 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LA CROSSE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE
COUNTIES...
    
At 932 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cataract, or 11 miles northwest of Sparta, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Cataract around 940 AM CDT.
  Fort Mc Coy around 950 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Melrose, Four Corners, County Roads I And I I, Highways 27 And 71,
The North Flowage, The Cataract Lookout Point and Highway 162 And
County T.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4404 9107 4414 9106 4416 9060 4400 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 276DEG 33KT 4408 9093 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JSB

737 
WWUS53 KARX 201441
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
941 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC053-201450-
/O.CAN.KARX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190720T1500Z/
Jackson WI-
941 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4400 9060 4403 9099 4407 9099 4407 9097
      4412 9097 4413 9098 4415 9095 4416 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 273DEG 37KT 4408 9080 

$$

WIC063-081-201500-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190720T1500Z/
La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-
941 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LA CROSSE AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...
    
At 940 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Cataract, or 9 miles north of Sparta, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Fort Mc Coy around 950 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include The
Cataract Lookout Point, Highway 162 And County T, Four Corners,
County Roads I And I I, Highways 27 And 71 and The North Flowage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 9060 4403 9099 4407 9099 4407 9097
      4412 9097 4413 9098 4415 9095 4416 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 273DEG 37KT 4408 9080 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JSB

133 
WWUS53 KARX 201458
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
958 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC063-081-201508-
/O.EXP.KARX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190720T1500Z/
La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-
958 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LA CROSSE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONROE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. Addiitional strong 
to severe thunderstorms will occur over the next few hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4400 9060 4403 9099 4407 9099 4407 9097
      4412 9097 4413 9098 4415 9095 4416 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 273DEG 37KT 4407 9055 

$$

Batzek

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Early morning surface analysis reveals a couple weak surface lows,
one over eastern Wyoming and one near Marquette. A nearly stationary
front stretches between the two lows, draped across the northern
portion of our CWA. A pool of oppressive dewpoints lingers south of
the front, with early morning readings still in the upper 70s to
lower 80s generally along and south of I-90. Temperatures south of
the front early this morning are still in the low to mid 80s in the
Mississippi and Wisconsin River valleys. Record warmest low
temperatures for July 20 are 78 degrees for La Crosse (1926) and 76
for Rochester (2011). While we're certainly on track to setting new
records early this morning, there's a decent chance we'll cool
sufficiently behind the front this evening to keep the current
calendar day records safely in place. It'll be another toasty, humid
day south of the front, across mainly northeast IA and far southwest
WI where highs will be near 90 and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s.
Will keep excessive heat warning as is in this area. Northerly flow
will offer some relief north of the front with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

A robust low level jet over the Plains was feeding an MCS over
western South Dakota early this morning. Current suite of convective
allowing models generally wants to bring this decaying MCS into our
neck of the woods towards midday, with only isolated pop up showers
and storms this morning. By midday the low levels are expected to
warm sufficiently to mostly erode any capping. The airmass south of
the front will remain sufficiently juiced to promote MLCAPEs of 1500
to 4000+ J/kg, highest south of I-90. Moisture transport will be
considerably weaker than Friday evening, but with this kind of
instability it won't take much forcing to pop showers and storms
heading into the afternoon hours as the decaying MCS approaches, and
the front will certainly lend additional support. Latest CAMs paint
fairly widespread convection crossing mainly the northern 2/3 of our
CWA from late morning through the afternoon. Not as much deep layer
bulk shear to work with as Friday evening, but 30-45 knots in the
0-3km layer should support some organized storms (HREF shows some
respectable updraft helicity). CAMs show potential for some discrete
cells popping up along the front initially before activity gets
swallowed up by the incoming MCS, perhaps morphing into some linear
segments. Damaging winds will be the main threat. Isolated large
hail and perhaps a brief tornado are also possible if updrafts can
become sufficiently organized.

From a hydro standpoint, the good news is this afternoon convection
looks fairly progressive, but the bad news is the vast majority of
our CWA has already been worked over by heavy rainfall over the last
several days and doesn't need any more at the present time. PWATs
will be in excess of 2 inches with deep warm cloud depths, so heavy
downpours are likely. Still too much uncertainty with regard to
convective evolution to warrant issuing a flash flood watch at this
time, but day shift may need to consider a short term watch based on
how the MCS evolves upstream this morning.

An incoming shortwave will nudge the front southward heading into
this evening, with perhaps another round of convection developing
along it after this afternoon's activity departs. Not as much
instability or shear with this potential later round, but heavy
downpours will remain a concern through late evening before activity
exits to our south overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

By Sunday, continued light northerly surface flow will drop dew
points into the 55-65 degree range, bringing welcome relief from the
oppressive heat and humidity. Passage of the upper trough Sunday
night looks like it will be dry with not enough moisture to
generate any precip. Highly amplified northwest flow aloft through
mid week will reinforce the dry and seasonably mild trend through
late week.  The next chance for rain looks like it will not be until
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Several rounds of storms will affect area TAF sites today through
tonight. The first round is expected only to brush RST, but later
rounds midday and this afternoon are expected to impact LSE and
RST directly.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ054-
     061.

MN...None.
IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kurz
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...DMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

IAZ008>010-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-
055-210830-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-
Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Richland-
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to move through the area today from
late morning into the afternoon. A few of these storms could
become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and torrential rainfall. Localized flash
flooding could result in areas that see repeated heavy rainfall.
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible this evening.
While the severe threat will be lower with these storms, heavy
rainfall will remain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed today. Rainfall and flooding
reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-061-210830-
Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Grant-
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to move through the area today from
late morning into the afternoon. A few of these storms could
become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and torrential rainfall. Localized flash
flooding could result in areas that see repeated heavy rainfall.
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible this evening.
While the severe threat will be lower with these storms, heavy
rainfall will remain possible.

An excessive heat warning remains in effect today. Afternoon heat
indices will top out between 100 and 105 degrees. Heat-related
illnesses may occur with prolonged exposure to the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed today. Rainfall and flooding
reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MNZ086-087-201145-
Olmsted-Dodge-
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OLMSTED AND
NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 618 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mantorville,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Dodge Center, Mantorville, Kasson, Byron, Oronoco,
Wasioja, Douglas, Concord, Eden, Danesville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4420 9275 4419 9250 4406 9237 4397 9282
      4410 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1118Z 240DEG 29KT 4410 9273

Batzek

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
651 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MNZ079-086>088-WIZ032-033-201400-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
Alma, Arcadia, and Whitehall
651 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Scattered thunderstorms will move across portions of southeast
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. Primary hazards will
be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, hail, and lightning. Be alert for
flooding, especially where storms repeat over the same area. Move
indoors when storms approach your location.

Batzek

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
913 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW STEWARTVILLE      43.90N 92.50W
07/20/2019  M74 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KRST ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

LAWRENCE