Gale Warning 252, NWS Juneau, AK

925 
FZAK52 PAJK 271245
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-280645-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Winds over the Gulf will continue to ease through Friday morning,
but seas will remain very high. Another storm force front will 
move across the eastern gulf through Friday evening, followed by a
wind shift to the SW. 

$$

PKZ041-280645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the morning, then becoming SE
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. W swell early in the morning.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. SW swell. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-280645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. W swell early in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-280645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. W swell early in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-280645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. SW swell early in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt late. Gusts to 55 kt out
of interior bays and passes. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-280645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
345 AM AKST Fri Dec 27 2019

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the morning, then
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. SW swell early in
the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Thu Dec 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...The formidable front responsible for the most recent
round of high winds, rain, and snow is finally departing the
panhandle. Behind the departing front, showers will linger in some
areas, and a pressure gradient perpendicular to the coast will
provide the impetus to help sustain strong winds and maintain
gusty conditions, but these will diminish through the overnight
hours as the gradient turns increasingly parallel to the coast.
The first half of Friday will continue this trend, with some small
craft advisory level winds lingering in a few inner channels, but
otherwise little more than a chance of rain in some areas serving
as the primary weather concern for Southeast Alaska.

This brief reprieve from busy weather will soon come to an end as
another low begins to wind up in the Gulf. Model guidance is
beginning to come into good agreement that another strong front
takes aim on the region late on Friday. While not quite as intense
as the past event, it will definitely brings its own host of
weather related issues. A round of gales will begin to move in on
the Coastal waters and then into multiple inner channels Friday
afternoon. In some coastal waters, these gales are expected to
further intensify and reach storm force, particularly as the
pressure gradient tightens Friday night. On land, this will likely
translate to several strong wind headlines at various locations,
Also prior to the front moving north, NAEFS ensembles indicates a
decent amount of p-wat setting up for us likely due to previously
mentioned southerly flow. Given this, the potential for some
healthy precip totals looks possible. Because of substantial WAA
associated with this system, snow near sea level in the central
and southern panhandle does not appear likely at this time, but
normal spots like the northern highways and Hyder look like they
could see yet another round of heavy snow.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday to Thursday as of 9 pm Wednesday / The
parade of lows and frontal bands continue marching across the gulf
and through Southeast Alaska panhandle. A broad flat topped ridge
over the Pacific off the west coast of the CONUS is keeping a
long southwest flow from the central Pacific across the gulf. As
a result all of the trough and front moving along the main Jet
stream, move right through the region.

As it they typically seem to, the models have fairly good
agreement on the major systems, although some of the timing and
strengths and tracks are slightly different. With the smaller wave
caught in the mainstream flow, the timing of those are even more
chaotic comparing model solutions. The stronger systems will have
the much stronger winds with them so there will be a bout or two
of the gusty winds along the frontal boundaries. A quick look at
the mid to long range solutions, shows the stronger front should
be impacting the area late Sunday.

With no really cold air source to bring in cold air to Southeast
Alaska expect temperatures to remain fairly steady in the
highs/lows forecast into the middle of next week. This limits the
possibility of now to near the border on the Haines and Klondike
Highways.

Forecast confidence is average across the extended time range.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
915 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 AM     SNOW             8 NNE SKAGWAY           59.56N 135.23W
12/26/2019  E8.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FELL IN THE PAST 24
            HOURS AT 8 MILE.

0854 AM     SNOW             WHITE PASS              59.63N 135.16W
12/26/2019  E6.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOT REPORTED 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH 3 FOOT DRIFTS OVER
            THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0900 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.92N 130.03W
12/26/2019  M9.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER SAID SNOW STOPPED AROUND 8AM. MEASURED 9.6
            INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING.

&&

CMOORE