Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

481 
FZAK52 PAFG 160041
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-161515-
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 mb near St Matthew Island will move to near Anadyr as a 1003
mb low by 3pm Wed. A weather front stretching from the Chukchi 
Sea south to the Bering Strait and then to the Yukon Delta will 
remain quasi-stationary weaken in place through Thu.

$$

PKZ200-161515-
Norton Sound-
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing rain. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-161515-
Dall Point to Wales-
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Snow. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-161515-
Kotzebue Sound-
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-161515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
341 PM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 19

743 
FZAK52 PAFG 161319
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-170345-
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr will weaken to 1006 mb and 
drift northwestward over Chukotka by this afternoon. A weather 
front stretching south from Wrangel Island across the Chukchi Sea
south to the Bering Strait and then to the Yukon Delta will 
remain quasi-stationary weaken in place through tonight. A 1006 
mb low will develop south of Wrangel Island by Thursday afternoon 
with a weather front extending south across the Chukchi and Bering
Seas.

$$

PKZ200-170345-
Norton Sound-
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-170345-
Dall Point to Wales-
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt becoming NW. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-170345-
Kotzebue Sound-
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-170345-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
419 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 19

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air has now moved over all over Alaska Except for the North
Slope and the Yukon Flats. Blizzard conditions along the Arctic
Coast will persist into Tue, and then decrease Tue PM except for
zone 204 where Blizzard will last into Wed or Thu. A storm moving
north along the West Coast will bring Snow, blowing and and
freezing rain to zones 211 213 214 and 215 tonight into Tue am.
Conditions will remain warmer than normal through the week.

Aloft...
A long wave trough over the Bering Sea and NW Pacific will persist
through Wed then retrograde late in the week as the ridge over
Western Canada and Eastern Ak builds over mainland AK by midweek,
then persists through the weekend. This will keep conditions dry
and warmer than normal over most of northern AK through the end of
the week. This will also keep strong inversions over the Interior
through the week.

A short wave moving north over the West Coast tonight will bring
precip and winds with it that will be addressed below.

A second short wave over NW Canada will move over NE AK tue night
and Wed then persist through the end of the week. This will bring
some flurries to NE AK Tue night into Thu.

Surface...
Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
move over the Beaufort Sea Wed and then persist into Thu. A 1004
mb low 150 NM northwest of Point Hope will move northwest tonight.
A surface low pressure trough that stretches from this low to
Point Lay to Demarcation Point will move to Wainwright to
Demarcation Point by 3am Wed and then weaken through Thu. These
features have combined to produce east winds 30-40 kt along and
north of the trough along with blizzard conditions. Winds and
blowing snow will taper off south of the trough.

A 1030 mb High over the SE Interior will weaken slowly through
Wed. This is causing east winds at Delta Junction and at Eagle
that will persist into Wed and possible Thu.

A 964 mb low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the Central
Bering Sea as a 989 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to near Anadyr as a
1003 mb low by 3pm Wed.

A weather front stretching from the Chukchi Sea south to the
Bering Strait then to Bristol Bay will remain quasi- stationary
through Tue and then weaken in place through Wed. A frontal wave
over the YK Delta will move to near St Lawrence Island tonight and
then into the Western Chukchi Sea Tue. Snow, blowing snow, east
winds gusting to 40 mph, and even a chance of freezing rain is
moving northwest with the frontal wave tonight over zones 214 215
213 211. These conditions will diminish Tue south of the wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
Thu. Looks like models all in agreement on ridge building mainland
AK this week, with weak low developing over NE AK second half of
the week.

At the surface at 18z, all models verify about 8 mb too weak on
the low near Point Hope. This is causing winds along the North
Slope to be 3-5 kt stronger than models indicate today through
tonight. Models also verify about 4 mb too weak on the high over
the SE Interior, and thus winds at Eagle and Delta Junction are
about 5 kt stronger than models indicate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB JAN 19