Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

441 
WWAK62 PAFC 101553
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
753 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

AKZ153-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
753 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR LIGHTNING, which is in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to
1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...South to west 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph 
  in storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 39 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the 
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late 
  afternoon and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be 
  during the evening, but some storms may last through the 
  overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ162-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
753 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR LIGHTNING, which is in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to
1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* Location...Inland portions of Bristol Bay, especially near the 
  Nushagak Hills and Ahklun Mountains.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...South to west 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph 
  in storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent.

* Temperatures...In the upper 70s to lower 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along and near the 
  mountains in the mid to late afternoon and become more 
  widespread during the evening. A few storms may last through 
  the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
753 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR LIGHTNING, which is in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to
1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...4.

* Winds...West 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent.

* Temperatures...In the upper 70s to mid 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in 
  the mid to late afternoon and drift westward over the valleys 
  during the evening. A few storms may last through the 
  overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

595 
WWAK62 PAFC 101925
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1125 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

AKZ155-110900-
/O.EXB.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190710T1925Z-190711T0900Z/
1125 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR LIGHTNING, which is in effect until 1 AM AKDT
Thursday.

* Location...Kuskokwim Delta.

* Lightning Activity Level...3.

* Winds...West 8 to 15 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 48 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Ahklun Mountains
  and track westward across the Kuskokwim Delta. The bulk of
  activity will be during the late afternoon through evening
  hours, though a few storms may last through the overnight 
  hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire
  starts.

$$

AKZ153-111130-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190712T0800Z/
1125 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 40 percent today and 58 percent
  Thursday.

* Temperatures...In the 80s today and 70s on Thursday.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the 
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late 
  afternoon and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be 
  during the evening, but some storms may last through the 
  overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-111130-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190712T0800Z/
1125 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHTNING FOR WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE...

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent today and 56 on Thursday.

* Temperatures...In the mid 70s to mid 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in
  the afternoon and drift westward over the valleys during the 
  evening. A few storms may last through the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ162-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.190711T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
1125 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY...

* Location...Inland portions of Bristol Bay, especially near the 
  Nushagak Hills and Ahklun Mountains.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent.

* Temperatures...In the upper 70s to mid 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along and near the 
  mountains in the mid to late afternoon and become more 
  widespread during the evening. A few storms may last through 
  the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

900 
WWAK62 PAFC 110027
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

AKZ153-111630-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
427 PM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 40 percent today and 56 percent 
  Thursday.

* Temperatures...In the 80s today and 70s on Thursday.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the 
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late 
  afternoon and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be 
  during the evening, but some storms may last through the 
  overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-111630-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
427 PM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent today and 60 on 
  Thursday.

* Temperatures...In the mid 70s to mid 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in 
  the afternoon and drift westward over the valleys during the 
  evening. A few storms may last through the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ155-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
427 PM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY
FOR LIGHTNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* Location...Kuskokwim Delta.

* Lightning Activity Level...3.

* Winds...West 8 to 15 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 48 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Ahklun Mountains 
  and track westward across the Kuskokwim Delta. The bulk of 
  activity will be during the late afternoon through evening 
  hours, though a few storms may last through the overnight 
  hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

$$

AKZ162-110900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
427 PM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY
FOR LIGHTNING FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY...

* Location...Inland portions of Bristol Bay, especially near the 
  Nushagak Hills and Ahklun Mountains.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 42 percent.

* Temperatures...In the upper 70s to mid 80s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along and near the 
  mountains in the mid to late afternoon and become more 
  widespread during the evening. A few storms may last through 
  the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

503 
WWAK62 PAFC 110847
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1247 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

AKZ155-111000-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
1247 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

The Red Flag Warning has expired.

$$

AKZ162-111000-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190711T0900Z/
1247 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY...

The Red Flag Warning has expired.

$$

AKZ153-120100-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
1247 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 50 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late afternoon
  and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be during the
  evening.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-120100-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
1247 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 45 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in 
  the afternoon and drift westward over the valleys during the 
  evening. A few storms may last through the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

821 
WWAK62 PAFC 111539
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
739 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

AKZ153-120745-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
739 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 50 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the 
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late 
  afternoon and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be 
  during the evening.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-120745-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
739 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 45 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in 
  the afternoon and drift westward over the valleys during the 
  evening. A few storms may last through the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

366 
WWAK62 PAFC 120001
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

AKZ153-120900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
401 PM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 50 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the mountains in the 
  mid afternoon and move over the valley during the late 
  afternoon and evening hours. The bulk of activity will be 
  during the evening.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ163-120900-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
401 PM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
LIGHTNING FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* Location...Western Alaska Range.

* Lightning Activity Level...3 to 4.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with local gusts to 20 mph in 
  storms.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 45 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Timing...Thunderstorms will develop along the Alaska Range in 
  the afternoon and drift westward over the valleys during the 
  evening. A few storms may last through the overnight hours.

* Impacts...Ample lightning could lead to numerous new fire 
  starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

060 
WWAK62 PAFC 120851
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1251 AM AKDT Fri Jul 12 2019

AKZ153-121000-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
1251 AM AKDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL HAS EXPIRED FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...

The Red Flag Warning has expired.

$$

AKZ163-121000-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190712T0900Z/
1251 AM AKDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

The Red Flag Warning has expired.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level high that has been the dominant feature for the last
few weeks continues to slide to the northeast. The center of the
upper level high is over the Seward Peninsula, with the ridge
extending southwestward across much of Southern Alaska. This is
causing northeasterly upper level winds over the area. A
vertically stacked low exists across the western Aleutians keeping
showers on and off showers a staple from Cold Bay to Shemya.

Wild fire smoke continues to choke much of the state. A dense
smoke advisory for the Western Kenai Peninsula from the Swan Lake
Fire will continue through at least Thursday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in very good agreement through the short and mid range.
Differences are not apparent synoptically until Thursday afternoon
as differences in the placement of the northern Pacific Jet start
to give differing surface low feature placement south of the
Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for the most
part. Smoke from the Swan Lake Fire will continue to be the only
weather concern, with the lowest visibilities expected in the
mornings, with periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Today's forecast will continue to revolve around thunderstorm
chances, marine layer influence, and smoke. Ridging aloft has
moved far enough to the west to allow for convection to develop.
However, there are no shortwaves in the flow, so any activity will
remain both isolated and over higher terrain. Mainly centered on the
Talkeetna Mountains through portions of the Chugach. Steering
flow from the NE could bring any storm off the terrain tonight as
opposed to yesterday. The marine layer sitting in the Gulf of
Alaska will try to turn the corner, up into Cook Inlet tonight.
Currently it's struggling in the drier air, but likely once the
low-levels cool down it will make further progress. The result
will be moister at the surface and cooler overnight low
temperatures. If it makes it further north into Anchorage and the
Susitna Valley it will suppress daytime temperature. The drawback
to this is it will also trap more smoke from the Swan Lake Fire
(or any other for that matter...the state is covered in smoke), in
the very stable marine air and surface-based inversion.
Wednesday's evening thunderstorms should both remain confined to
the higher terrain, then move eastward toward the Copper River
Basin. Expect thunderstorms to expand in coverage, especially away
from the terrain on Thursday. The exception to this would be the
Cook Inlet region where the marine layer should keep things more
on the stable side. Overall expect a cooling trend in coming days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southcentral: Red Flag warning has been issued for the Copper
River Basin after coordination with the GACC met. Expect
thunderstorms to favor the terrain on Wednesday, then become more
widespread across the Basin on Thursday. The low-levels remain
fairly dry in this pattern, which means dry thunderstorms will be
possible.

Tonight's activity will remain isolated to the Talkeetna mountains
and portions of the Chugach. With no forcing, the terrain should
be the only focus. There is a slight bit of steering flow today,
so anything that forms could drift off the terrain to the
southwest. The marine layer will try to make a push up the Inlet
tonight and Wednesday night. Overall, it should make for cooler
temperatures and higher daytime relative humidities as well as
limiting convective activity at the surface.

Southwest: Today will be the last of the very hot and dry days as
the upper level ridge gradually shifts off to the west over the
next couple days. The capping inversion will weaken and allow the
realization of much of the potential energy. Thus, expect an
increase in showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. The
most unstable day looks to be Wednesday, with widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms expected across much of interior Southwest
Alaska. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the high amount of
expected lightning and resultant potential for new fire starts.
Conditions will stabilize a bit on Thursday due to more cloud
cover and cooler temperatures, leading to a decrease in
thunderstorm coverage. This trend looks to continue as we head to
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The ridge that has been over mainland Alaska is continuing to
weaken, leading to a slight shift in the overall pattern across
Southwest Alaska. Showers and thunderstorm activity continues to
increase over the next few days across interior locations,
especially from the Alaska Range westward across the Kuskokwim
Valley and Nushagak Hills and on over to the Ahklun Mountains.
Increased precipitation and lightning will return with thunderstorm
development. The overall storm motion will keep these storms over
the interior locations. Coastal areas will remain mostly dry,
with areas of fog, which onshore flow should bring inland each
night.

Areas of smoke and haze will persist, especially in the upper
atmosphere. Onshore surface flow will bring "cleaner" air in off
the Bering Sea while the overall flow should keep the worst of of
smoke north of the Kuskokwim Mountains. Thus, do not expect a
repeat of this morning's dense smoke across the Kuskokwim Delta.
Of course, there could be some visibility reductions due to the
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A low over the western Aleutians retreats westward and remains
stationary through Thursday, which will continue to have a few
small crafts associated with it. The frontal boundary between this
low and the weakening ridge over the mainland will slide slightly
eastward toward the southwest coast. A second low will move
eastward south of the Aleutian chain, which could bring increased
winds to the central Aleutians. However, there is model uncertainty
with the low track, but the overall impact will remain the same.
Fog and stratus continue to persist over much of the region through
Thursday, with reduced visibility likely over the central and
western Bering/Aleutians.

&&

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Friday through Sunday)

Benign conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend. Small
craft winds are expected over the central Aleutians Friday as a
North Pacific low moves into the Bering. Winds and waves across
the Gulf should remain below small craft conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Friday through Tuesday)

The persistent upper level ridge of high pressure that has
brought the heat to southern Alaska will eventually dissipate and
depart the region to the northwest by the end of the work-week.
This will allow several upper level waves associated with an
Arctic trough over the northern part of the state to propagate
southward over the weekend. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
over the Bering allows several upper level waves to lift over
southwest Alaska. This translates into a more active weather
pattern across the southern part of the state, as well as more
seasonable temperatures through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB/AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKDT Tue Jul 9 2019

AKZ101-111-121-125-141-145-112315-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-
Western Prince William Sound-Copper River Basin-Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, Chickaloon, Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
Cooper Landing, Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, Moose Pass,
Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, Slana, Talkeetna, Willow,
and Cantwell
303 PM AKDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...

Many rivers across southcentral continue to be at or near bankfull
stages due to the warm weather and glacial melt.

The Kenai River below Skilak Lake is at minor flood stage with
water in yards and in one garage.

Elevated water levels persist for Eagle River. For those near or
attempting to cross Eagle River as part of the Crow Pass Trail, be
prepared for very high and swift water.

Along the Richardson Highway, the Klutina and Tazlina Rivers
remain near bankfull stages.

Water levels across the region should decrease with a change to
cooler temperatures over the next few days.