Gale Warning 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

753 
FZAK62 PAFC 110039
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111400-
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low at 55N 174W moves to 59N 177W at 997 mb for Tue 
afternoon. Its front moves into the Eastern Bering and dissipates 
Mon afternoon. A 984 mb North Pacific low moves to 51N 163W at 948
mb by Tue afternoon. Its front moves across the Eastern Aleutians 
and Alaska Peninsula through Tue afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal
to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 PM AKST Sun Nov 10 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

059 
FZAK62 PAFC 111242
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120300-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low near 57N 172W moves to 60N 180 at 989 mb Mon night
then to 59N 176E at 1002 mb Tue night. A 949 mb North Pacific low
moves to 48N 165W Mon night then to 50N 159W at 952 mb Tue night.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal
to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-120300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt becoming NE up to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Sat Nov 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level high over most of Alaska, centered around
the Canadian border near Eagle. This high is slowly moving
eastward. Surface high pressure is also over the state, with
generally offshore low level flow. Skies are generally clear over
Southcentral and the Lower Kuskokwim valley, except for some
patches of stratus. There is an upper level low near the eastern
Aleutians. A weak front associated with this low stretches from
Kodiak Island through the Kuskokwim Delta. Cloudy conditions and
just a few showers are occurring with this feature. There is an
eastward moving front over the southwest Bering and
western/central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through Monday
afternoon. There are just some slight differences in the handling
of lows in the Gulf and Bering Sea on Monday. Forecast confidence
is above normal except near normal for precipitation type along
the lower Kuskokwim and Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are most likely, but forecast confidence is
rather low due to the persistence of fog in the area. There
remains a chance of LIFR conditions in fog tonight through early
Sunday morning. Light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Ridging which extends from the Yukon Territory and into the
interior as well as Southcentral has resulted in predominately
sunny skies and areas of fog. This ridge is going to hover over
the interior the next two days. With the ridging in place, expect
fierce radiational cooling once the sun goes down and for the
temperatures to nose dive. Fog has been detected in the Copper
River Basin and over Turnagain Arm. The expectation is that the
pattern is stagnant enough where the fog potential will linger in
some of the valleys. All the while over the AKPEN and near Kodiak,
weak shortwave energy will push into the western portion of the
area of responsibility. Some of these clouds will push up Cook
Inlet along with light showers but will not make it to Anchorage.
There is above average confidence that Anchorage will remain dry
the next 72 hrs. The primary forecast challenge for the Anchorage
Metro Area and Mat-Su Valleys will be whether or not fog forms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Arctic high pressure over interior Alaska will maintain northeast
winds and cold surface conditions in the Kuskokwim Valley and
Delta tonight. With warm southerly flow aloft, this is a favorable
setup for freezing rain... but any precipitation should generally
be light/intermittent thus there isn't a huge concern with ice
accumulation. In the Bristol Bay area, temperatures are generally
above freezing in low lying areas. By midday Sunday, expect a
transition to south/southeast flow in Southwest AK as a low
crosses north of the AKPEN...thus highs will trend 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today. The potential for precipitation will
persist Sunday night into Monday morning as a shortwave tracks
from the AKPEN northward. Then expect the Southwest Mainland to
trend drier Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

South winds along the mainland coast will ramp up to small craft
advisory level as a low tracks north of the AKPEN. Meanwhile, a
front traversing the western Aleutians shifting eastward is
bringing a swath of precipitation and increased north winds,
likely reaching gales over the central Aleutians Sunday morning as
a closed low forms. This low will weaken and push northward
Monday. Tuesday, the remnants of a tropical storm will approach
the Aleutians from the south. Expect gales, with a swath of
embedded storm force winds likely.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended marine forecast on Tuesday evening,
attention will be focused on a storm force low over the North
Pacific, with the strong gale force front moving as far north as
the Eastern Aleutians and southeast Bering Sea This low will
remain in place and weaken through Wednesday. Thereafter, a
wintery pattern will develop over the Bering as the first strong
push of arctic air develops a widespread area of strong offshore
gale force winds centered over the eastern Bering Sea and Bering
Strait. This pattern will likely last through the end of the work
week as the storm track then shifts into the Gulf of Alaska. This
looks to be a rather stormy pattern for the Gulf of Alaska toward
the end of the period Thu-Sat with a series of lows/fronts moving
toward the Gulf Coast as a strong Pacific jet pattern develops.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Tuesday, there will be a
storm force low over the North Pacific with a gale force low
impacting the Eastern Aleutians. Farther north, a strong arctic
trough will be digging south across the Brooks Range. In between,
the mainland of Alaska will be sandwiched in between weak high
pressure which will help to keep the southern Mainland dry. By
Wednesday, the pattern will switch to a much more stormy pattern
as the deep storm force low eventually surges a warm front into
the Gulf of Alaska, with another barrage of wet and warm weather
for Southcentral as the arctic trough digs into the Bering Sea.
This stormy pattern looks to last through the work week as the
North Pacific firehose jet pattern establishes itself. With a
closer proximity to the arctic air, Southwest Alaska may see
better chances for snow as the warm fronts roll into the Gulf of
Alaska and assault Southcentral with continued warm anomalies.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 170 173 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA