Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Smoke from the wildfire east of KPHX will continue to spread eastward
across NM overnight. Visibilities may drop below 5 miles in FU across
portions of west central and central NM, to include ABQ. Cigs,
especially around KGUP, could also drop into the MVFR category as
they did briefly earlier. West to southwest breezes will continue at
mountain top level overnight, before increasing and spreading to
lower elevations Friday mid-morning. Gust between 30 and 35kts will
be possible, especially along and east of the central mountain chain
through the afternoon. Winds at lower elevations will decrease by
02Z.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry condtions are expected to continue on Friday. Winds will
strengthen on Friday as a storm system begins to approach the state.
Temperatures will cool considerably this weekend to well below normal
values as the storm system crosses the central Rockies. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast for far
northern and northeastern New Mexico this weekend. The storm system
will exit the region by early Monday and temperatures will begin to
warm back up to near normal by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry conditions currently ongoing over the forecast area are
expected to continue into Friday. Winds will strengthen on Friday
across the state as westerly flow shifts southwesterly in response to
an upper level trough approaching from the west. These hot, dry, and
windy conditions have prompted a Fire Weather Watch to be issued for
areas along and south of I-40. The strongest winds will be felt
along and east of the central mountain chain, especially across
northeastern New Mexico where winds could approach Wind Advisory
criteria. As the aforementioned trough begins to cross the central
Rockies late Friday, it will send a backdoor cold front through
northeast NM. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected late
Friday/early Saturday, but breezy and cooler conditions will be
possible behind the front.

Temperatures will cool substantially this weekend as the trough
continues to deepen and slowly cross the Rockies. Both the GFS and
ECMWF put a strong trough of about 567 dm over southwest Colorado by
12Z Sunday. As this unseasonably storm system makes its way across
the Rockies, temperatures will cool substantially with high
temperatures forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. As this
system is only expected to clip northern NM, not much in the way of
precipitation is expected aside from a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across far north and northeast portions of the state
Saturday and Sunday.

The trough will eject over the Great Plains by early Monday, and a
ridge will then begin to build over the area. Models are in fairly
good agreement about a moisture surge under the ridge across the east
by mid-week as low-level winds turn southerly. Convection could
develop in response to this although confidence is low at this point.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 DUE TO STRONG
WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...

Friday still appears to be a scattered to potentially widespread
critical fire weather day for portions of northern and central NM.
Tonight’s humidity recoveries will be poor in much of central NM,
and and fairly modest either direction in west central and east
central parts of the state. This will help set the stage for
critical conditions Friday. While temperatures will warm during the
afternoon, readings in parts of western NM will be a few degrees
below average. Nonetheless, temperature readings in the upper 70’s
to low 90’s will be complemented by steep lapse rates and high
Haines indices and humidity will plummet into the single digits on a
widespread basis. In addition, the southwesterlies aloft will
strengthen over NM through the day, and the deepening lee-side
surface low will induce a stout surface gradient. Deep mixing will
transport these strong winds surface-ward with strongest speeds in
the northeast highlands where gusts will approach 50 mph. The Fire
Weather Watch will remain intact as is.

Conditions for marginal for critical fire weather will likely shift
to the east central plains on Saturday with overall less wind and
cooler temperatures. A backdoor cold front will have entered into
the northeastern part of the forecast area early Saturday morning,
and this could mitigate the threat for critical conditions in the
northeast.

Breezy conditions will still linger on Sunday as a secondary upper
trough and associated front move through. Mostly dry conditions will
be retained with cooler temperatures. Into next week, temperatures
will creep back toward average as a ridge aloft swells over NM.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ105>109.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
340 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019

NMZ501>540-210945-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
340 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very warm temperatures are expected over the region today. Persons
with prolonged exposure outdoors should stay hydrated and stay aware
for potential heat related illnesses.

Smoke from wildfires in Arizona will move into the region today.
While widespread dense smoke is generally not expected, sensitive
populations should monitor conditions for potential air quality
alerts from local health authorities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through evening
for areas along and south of I-40 where low humidities combined with
strong winds and unstable conditions may create critical fire
weather conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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