Wind Advisory 12, NWS Las Vegas, NV

331 
WWUS75 KVEF 152140
NPWVEF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
240 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018

CAZ523-160545-
/O.CON.KVEF.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-180316T0600Z/
Western Mojave Desert-
Including Barstow, Daggett, and Fort Irwin
240 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Winds are expected to peak between now and 9 PM. Winds
  will begin to decrease after 9 PM.
 
* WINDS...West winds gusting 35 to 45 MPH, strongest around the 
  Barstow area. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds can create hazardous driving conditions 
  due to crosswinds and reduced visibility with blowing dust. 
  Loose or unsecured objects and temporary structures may be 
  damaged or displaced. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Secure any loose objects or temporary structures. Motorists
should be prepared for strong winds and blowing dust. Check road
and weather conditions before departure.

&&

$$

565 
WWUS75 KVEF 160537
NPWVEF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1037 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018

CAZ523-160645-
/O.EXP.KVEF.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-180316T0600Z/
Western Mojave Desert-
Including Barstow, Daggett, and Fort Irwin
1037 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

Winds had subsided in the Barstow-Daggett area this evening, so
the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

Morgan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
101 AM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will continue moving across the
region tonight and early Thursday bringing gusty winds through this
evening. Scattered showers will brush southern Nevada overnight and
early Thursday morning before the system pulls away to the east.
Another weather system will move across the region Saturday
providing continued cool and breezy conditions along with scattered
snow showers across the Southern Sierra and Central Nevada.
&&

.UPDATE...Quick update before the main package this morning to
increase precipitation chances across the southern 1/2 of the
forecast area. A plume of low/mid level moisture and precipitation
was moving east through SE California just west of San Bernardino
County as of 1 AM. This area is expected to weaken as it moves over
the desert, however light precipitation will be possible as it
traverses the region. Snow levels will fall to between 4000-5000
feet as this precipitation moves through, which could result in some
light snow in the higher terrain of San Bernardino County,
especially near Mountain Pass on I-15. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV UPDATE...745 PM PDT Wed Mar 14 2018.
Mid level flow was gaining more of a westerly component over far
southern Nevada this evening, setting the stage for mountain wave
development off the Spring Mountains. Several stations from 8000
feet all the way down to Red Rock Canyon were reporting gusts over
45 mph. Primary concern is whether winds will relax before the
Advisory expires at 11 PM. No update planned at this time; will
continue to monitor.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
220 PM PDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

A progressive pattern will bring two Pacific Systems across our
region through Saturday, the first tonight and early Thursday and
the next one enters the picture late Friday and Saturday. The main
widespread impacts of these systems will be gusty winds.
Additionally scattered showers can be expected...similar to those we
are seeing across south central Nevada and northwest Arizona.

Winds were responding about as expected this afternoon as the
leading edge of the West Coast trough pushes across our area. Winds
will decrease later this evening but breezy to windy conditions will
persist overnight into Thursday morning across Clark, San Bernardino
and Mohave counties as the axis moves overhead and shortwave energy
swings through the base of the trough. Cold pool instability and
dynamic forcing generated by vorticity advection will produce
showers across portions of central and northeast Clark and Mohave
counties between 12Z and 18Z Thursday then coverage will decrease
fairly quickly Thursday afternoon.

Generally dry west to southwest flow will then develop over the
region Thursday night and Friday between systems. Attention then
turns to the closed low forecast to be centered over northern
California Friday afternoon. There is good model agreement that this
system will open up as energy swings through the base of the system
across southern Nevada on Saturday. Snow showers will be intercepted
largely by the Sierra and several inches of snow will be possible
over the higher eastern Slopes late Friday and Saturday. Significant
accumulations will likely be confined above 8000 feet. Snow levels
will be between 4000 and 5000 feet. This will result in scattered
snow showers across Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln counties, but
accumulations look light...generally a trace to a couple inches. A
belt of southwest-west winds will set up over the Mojave Desert
zones with gusts generally 25-35 mph much of the day.

Near normal temperatures today will drop several degrees by Thursday
then hold through Saturday with only a few degrees variation each
day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

IMPACT CONFIDENCE: Confidence falls below normal next week as models
continue to struggle to come to a consensus with important details.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Ridging will likely result in a break in the
action during the Sunday through Monday night timeframe. As has been
the case the last several weeks, models really begin to diverge
toward the end of the long term period. The 00z operational runs of
the GFS and ECMWF indicate some sort of moisture laden trough/low
moving toward the region by Tuesday or Wednesday. The ensemble GFS
also shows good agreement in this outcome. However the latest ECMWF
ensemble is less excited about this potential, indicating that such
a system would weaken and lift north. For now, have indicated some
slight chance to chance PoPs moving from west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south to southwest winds to around
35 kts will continue through about 03Z. Expect winds to diminish
some overnight, but still remain gusty to around 25kts before
finally dropping to about 15kts by Thursday morning. Sct to bkn VFR
CIGs will continue into Thursday. Lower confidence on the wind
forecast for Thursday as a weak front pushes through. Expect winds
to shift west at some point early in the afternoon but exact time is
uncertain. Also some question about how strong winds will get early
Thursday as some models have gusty winds over 25kts returning while
other guidance is lighter.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty winds will persist through evening before
diminishing early tonight. Precipitation  through early this evening
will be mainly confined to the Sierra, but showers and even isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across Esmeralda, central Nye, and
Lincoln Counties as well as northern Mohave County. Southwest winds
Thursday morning should pick back up but will not be as strong as
what we saw today. Expect winds to eventually shift west with a weak
front Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

Prev Update...Morgan
Short Term...Adair
Long Term...Wolcott
Aviation...Wolf

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