Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Las Vegas, NV

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WGUS75 KVEF 162247
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
347 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZC015-162256-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-180717T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
347 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended over the Hualapai Mountains. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3511 11378 3495 11372 3492 11397 3508 11394

$$

Morgan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
219 PM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures and humid conditions will
continue across the region through mid week. Isolated thunderstorm
chances will continue Tuesday across the higher terrain of
southern Nevada and southeast California. A better chance exists
across at least the southern half of Mohave County.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

Ridge continues to extend eastward this afternoon across the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. Under the ridge, convection
associated with diurnal, terrain driven circulations has initiated
mainly across Clark, Mohave, and Lincoln Counties. A weak short wave
riding the top of the is aiding convection across Lincoln County,
but most updrafts have been shallow in nature and largely suppressed
by high pressure aloft. The more interesting spot is Mohave County.
There, outflow-dominant cluster of thunderstorm are quickly
progressing westward. These storms will move southeastward at around
10-15 mph. With more than enough available moisture, these storms
can produce heavy rainfall, with rain rates up to two inches per
hour. Severe winds may also be possible as storms move into southern
Mohave County where effective shear increases to 20-30 knots.
Thunderstorm activity should decrease with the loss of diurnal
heating this evening. The only particular areas that may see
thunderstorms this evening are Lincoln and Mohave Counties where
dynamic and outflow storm generation will aid convection after
heating is lost. Elsewhere, dry and warm conditions are expected
through the evening and overnight.

Tuesday, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across
southern Mohave County and spread westward in to San Bernardino
County as an inverted trough influences the southern portion of
the forecast area. Further north, diurnal, terrain driven and some
outflow- dominant thunderstorms will be favored (similar to
Monday). Outside of convection, soggy afternoon high temperatures
will top out 3-5 degrees above July normals.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

Models are fairly similar to previous runs with the easterly
wave, showing it crossing the Gulf of California Wednesday
morning. This should set up some southeast flow directed into our
CWA by afternoon, so increasing PoPs on Wednesday still look good.
Still not sure how far northwest the moisture will push by the
afternoon, so stuck with the previous forecast for now. By THU the
easterly wave will be off the SoCal coast with high pressure
overhead. The combination of an influx of moisture from the wave
and vorticity pulses rounding the base of high pressure will allow
for scattered thunderstorms THU afternoon and evening. Similar to
previous model runs, light southerly flow, ample instability and
DCAPE should set up across much of the region THU. The main
threats for storms that develop will be flooding and strong
outflows capable of producing strong to severe winds. As the
easterly wave slowly moves further west and into the Pacific, an
upper level trough over NW Canada and the NW Pacific will help
nudge the ridge overhead eastward, eventually moving it over New
Mexico and Texas by Sunday. The eastward propagation of the high
should result in some mid-level dry air off the SoCal coast to
filter in across southwestern portions of our CWA by FRI. However,
lingering low level moisture combined with daytime heating will
still allow for thunderstorms to develop mainly along higher
terrain through the weekend. Beyond SUN, models begin to differ in
the placement of the high, but overall they seem to be trending
toward bringing in dry air which would limit storm development
MON.

Besides storm chances, expect light winds less than 10 mph,
temperatures near normal for mid July and partly sunny to partly
cloudy skies.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Outside of convective influence, light,
variable winds below 10 knots will continue across the terminal
through the afternoon. Probability of outflow affecting the terminal
this afternoon/evening is low. Similar conditions are expected
Tuesday. CIGs should remain above 10k feet.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the
higher terrain will continue through the afternoon and wane this
evening. Convection may persist later into the evening across Lincoln
and southern Mohave Counties. Outside of thunderstorm influences,
winds will follow diurnal trends with speeds of 5-15 knots. CIGs at
or above 10k feet; CIGs may drop to 5-7 k feet with convection
developing near terminals.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIAVTION...Boothe
LONG TERM..............Morgan/Kryston

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