Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tucson, AZ

325 
WGUS75 KTWC 021628
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
928 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

AZC019-021-021636-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-181002T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima-Pinal-
928 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
PINAL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash Flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. However, light rain will continue with heavy flow in 
washes and streams as well as some street flooding. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures. A Flash Flood Watch remains in 
effect for the area until late tonight.

LAT...LON 3251 11227 3251 11221 3268 11220 3268 11216
      3272 11215 3272 11205 3277 11205 3277 11188
      3279 11187 3279 11178 3276 11177 3276 11174
      3273 11173 3243 11198 3237 11230

$$

Meyer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
325 AM MST Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers with occasional thunderstorms into
Tuesday especially west to north of Tucson. Gusty winds should also
occur Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then
mainly dry conditions Thursday into Saturday. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns early next week with gusty winds and
continued below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Light to moderate rain, briefly heavy, continued
across the western half of Pima county or west of Sells. Currently
have a small stream flood advisory based on report of running
washes and some roads being impassable out by Ajo. The latest NHC
statement on tropical depression Rosa is that the low level
circulation has elongated and that a new center may be forming
near the NE coast of the Baja California peninsula. For this
morning expect activity across western Pima county to diminish.
The rest of the area will see scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms under daytime heating. For now will maintain flash
flood watch out for western Pima county until this evening.

Whats left of Rosa will continue to lift NE away from the area
tonight as upper level low moves toward the California coast.
Can't rule of brief heavy showers, especially north of Tucson
tonight.

As the above mentioned upper low moves into southern California on
Wednesday, it will tap into some left over tropical moisture
hanging off southern Baja and advect it north across the area on
Wednesday. Thus a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across most of the area into Wednesday night.

Conditions start drying out on Thursday but enough residual
moisture around for a slight chance of showers. Dry Friday as
weak upper level trof passes through. Dry and breezy Saturday.

A much stronger/colder Pacific weather system will drop into the
Great Basin late the weekend and hang around through early next
week. This system will bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures,
a chance of valley rain and yes mountain snow showers especially
to the White mountains.

Highs temperature rebound today then be slightly below normal the
rest of the work week into Saturday. Turning cooler Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
Widespread -SHRA and isolated -TSRA developing later this morning
and persisting through much of tonight. Expect MVFR conditions and
occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, cloud decks will lower to 5k-
8k ft AGL. Patchy fog also expected thru 02/15Z. SFC wind sly/sely
at less than 12 kts thru 02/17Z, then SFC wind increasing to 12-17
kts with gusts near 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
occur through tonight, with the highest rainfall chances west of a
Safford to Sierra Vista line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will then persist into Thursday. Dry conditions are expected across
much of the area Friday and Saturday. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns Sunday into Monday mainly from Tucson
eastward. Gusty south winds will occur today, with gusty southwest
winds late in the upcoming weekend and early next week. Otherwise,
20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Will be monitoring some of the washes across western
Pima county, especially the Vamori Wash, which has started to
respond to the rainfall of the past several days.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ501-502-505-506.

&&

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