Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure system was continuing to shift eastward
across Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas early this morning.
Extending southward from the low was a surface boundary/dryline
stretched north to south across Central Oklahoma. At the same time
a cold front/secondary boundary was trailing the low across the
Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. Out ahead of the dryline...a narrow
surface instability axis with dewpoints around 60 degrees
interacting with this boundary was creating scattered convection
quickly moving eastward into Southeast Oklahoma. Latest radar
images were showing a slight weakening trend as this convection
begins to outrun the eastward push of the instability axis along
the dryline. Additional showers/convection were occurring across
Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas associated with the low itself.
Steep mid level lapse rates could allow for marginally severe hail
to be possible with all of this activity...though the strong
0-6km wind sheer of 80+KTs was helping to keep some updrafts from
sustaining themselves.

The showers/convection will continue to push across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning as the dryline and
low pressure system move east through the region. The majority of
the activity looks to be north and east of the CWA shortly after
12z this morning...with any remaining activity across far
Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas through the morning
hours.

By this afternoon...the low is progged to move into Southern
Missouri with the associated cold front moving into Northeast
Oklahoma mid morning and through the CWA this afternoon. Behind
the cold front...gusty northwesterly winds 25-35 mph and drier air
are forecast to spread across the CWA. Also behind the
front...cloud cover wrapping back around the low should begin to
push back into the CWA from northwest to southeast. This will help
to keep temperatures in the 50s near the Kansas border to the low
70s near the Red River. The warmer temperatures and drier air
across Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas will increase
fire weather conditions with limited fire dangers possible over
Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas.

Late this afternoon into tonight...a weak impulse within the
upper level trof axis should quickly move through the region and
exit by Tuesday morning. This additional impulse will continue the
cloud cover and could develop some light rain showers for parts
of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Breezy
northwesterly winds along with the cloud cover should help to keep
low temps in the 40s for most locations tonight.

Cloud cover is forecast to taper off from west to east Tuesday
afternoon/evening with mostly clear skies and light winds going
into Wednesday morning. This should be the coldest morning of the
week with lows in the 30s for most locations. The normal cold
spots could fall near/just below the freezing mark. These cooler
conditions will be short lived as a ridge of high pressure pushes
back into the region for the second half of the week with a return
of southerly winds and warmer temperatures. Southerly winds look
to become gusty into Friday which will again help to increase fire
weather concerns over the CWA.

Late in the week and into the weekend...latest model solutions
continue to disagree on timing/location details of another wave
moving into the Plains. For now will continue with persistence of
previous forecasts and carry low chance pops at the far end of the
forecast period for the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  41  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   71  45  58  36 /  20  20  10   0
MLC   67  43  59  36 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   57  40  57  30 /  20  30  10   0
FYV   67  40  52  30 /  30  30  10   0
BYV   64  40  51  32 /  70  30  10   0
MKO   65  42  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   61  40  53  32 /  60  30  10   0
F10   63  41  58  36 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   73  45  60  39 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated severe storms are approaching northeast Oklahoma early
Monday morning.  These storms will continue eastward posing
a risk of large hail through the early morning hours.

A second region of storm development early Monday morning is
possible further south over south central into southeast Oklahoma.
Conditions over this region are more supportive of severe weather
potential.  Should storms develop over this region they may
obtain supercell characteristics as they move eastward.  Large
hail and locally damaging winds will be possible.  The storms
would move into a less favorable environment over western
Arkansas but likely maintain some risk of severe weather.
The storms, should they develop, would likely weaken and
move further east by sunrise Monday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong west to northwest winds are expected on Monday behind the
departing storm system. These winds will promote rapid wildfire
spread conditions across the region especially for areas along and
south of Interstate 40. The risk will be lessened in areas which
receive a good amount of rain this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will gradually trend warmer through the upcoming
week. Above normal temperatures by late week along with increasing
southerly winds will raise fire weather concerns for both
Thursday and Friday. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives next
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
305 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ARZ001-OKZ058-062-063-067-068-190845-
Benton AR-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Wagoner OK-Mayes OK-
305 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON...DELAWARE...
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...EAST CENTRAL WAGONER AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 304 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Locust Grove, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bella Vista...                    Jay...
Grove...                          Gravette...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
Spavinaw...                       Maysville...
Honey Creek State Park...         Rose...
Spavinaw State Park...            Leach...
Chloeta...                        Dodge...
Cayuga...                         Tiff City...
Lake Eucha State Park...          Zena...
Murphy...

LAT...LON 3675 9461 3650 9462 3650 9439 3647 9436
      3601 9525 3614 9535 3678 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 224DEG 51KT 3614 9523

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     HAIL             LOCUST GROVE            36.20N 95.17W
03/19/2018  E0.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

OKZ068-070>072-190845-
Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-McIntosh OK-
317 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...
NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH...SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 316 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Warner, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Warner...                         Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Braggs...
Rentiesville...                   Cookson...
Greenleaf State Park...           Pumpkin Center...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...      Keefeton...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 266 and
281.

LAT...LON 3537 9541 3549 9553 3589 9513 3569 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 227DEG 50KT 3548 9538

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

OKZ074>076-190915-
Haskell OK-Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
335 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...EASTERN
LATIMER AND NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 335 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast of
Yanush, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wister...                         Howe...
Red Oak...                        Fanshawe...
Lake Wister State Park...         Bengal...
Yanush...                         Milton...
Summerfield...

LAT...LON 3468 9529 3473 9537 3521 9487 3496 9462
      3468 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 229DEG 46KT 3474 9527

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

OKZ068-069-190915-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
342 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 342 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Pumpkin Center, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Dime to nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Westville...
Cookson...                        Eldon...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Pumpkin Center...
Baron...                          Maryetta...

LAT...LON 3614 9477 3593 9452 3590 9452 3564 9500
      3564 9507 3567 9513 3576 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 227DEG 50KT 3571 9503

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
349 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

OKZ058-063-190915-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
349 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 348 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Honey Creek
State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Honey Creek State Park...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...

LAT...LON 3655 9462 3645 9478 3658 9494 3686 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 226DEG 49KT 3657 9479