Tornado Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

356 
WWUS52 KTBW 101513
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1113 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

FLC075-101523-
/O.EXP.KTBW.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181010T1515Z/
Levy FL-
1113 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1115 AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northern
Florida.

LAT...LON 2929 8316 2932 8314 2932 8312 2934 8310
      2935 8306 2936 8306 2937 8307 2940 8302
      2942 8303 2943 8302 2942 8291 2909 8296
      2908 8297 2910 8314 2917 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 182DEG 38KT 2929 8308 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
The outer rain bands of Michael are moving across the coastal
waters and affecting coastal counties at this time. More scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop with
daytime heating today with wind gusts to tropical storm force
possible in the stronger convection. Otherwise mostly cloudy,
breezy, and humid conditions are expected. Main impact will
continue to be storm surge with an isolated tornado/waterspout
possible, especially across the coastal waters and Nature Coast.
Overall the current forecast is on track and no adjustments needed
at this time.

&&

AVIATION...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected into early tonight with some
occasional IFR conditions in convection. Conditions will then
slowly improve overnight into Thursday morning. Breezy southerly
winds at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts will continue into this
evening then winds will diminish tonight.

&&

MARINE...
Tropical storm conditions will be possible across the Gulf waters
from Venice northward, with hurricane conditions possible over the
offshore waters adjacent to the Nature Coast into this evening.
Extremely hazardous seas are expected across the entire region.
Winds will gradually diminish tonight and Thursday as Michael
moves farther away from the region, but seas will take longer to
subside. High pressure will build back over the area late in the
week with lighter winds and seas returning.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 514 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The center of extremely dangerous Major Hurricane Michael is located
about 250 miles west of the NWS TBW office this morning and our
thoughts remain with those directly in the path of this storm.
Locally, we have been dealing with higher than normal water levels,
as expected, but not much else other than cloudiness, breezy
conditions, and a few gusty showers. Very surreal for us with such a
dangerous storm just to our west.

The overall forecast philosophy has not changed much for today and
into Thursday, with the main impact still expected to be storm
surge. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible as well, especially
for our northern counties. Winds today will gradually turn southerly
and then southwest and then west into Thursday as Michael rapidly
pulls away from the region. Rain bands currently over our coastal
waters will persist, with some of them moving over land through the
day. Generally, off and on rainfall with gusty winds into the
tropical storm-force range can be expected along with abundant
cloudiness. Rain chances will linger into the first part of Thursday,
but then drier air will work into the region from the north behind
Michael.

Surface high pressure over the plains region will shift eastward
Friday into the weekend, with some drier air actually looking to
make it over the region. Dew points on Saturday are currently
forecast to be in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. High
temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80s, but it at least
should feel a bit nicer outside. This is short-lived, with dew
points going back up Sunday and into next week. Really no
significant synoptic features to speak of into early next week, as
high pressure aloft builds over the region. Rain chances will be on
the lower side, but still expecting some isolated to scattered
activity.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. A typical distribution of scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected. No significant fog is anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  80  88  75 /  80  70  60  10
FMY  88  79  87  76 /  50  40  60  30
GIF  89  78  90  73 /  60  50  50  10
SRQ  86  81  86  76 /  80  60  70  20
BKV  87  80  89  72 /  70  70  50  10
SPG  87  80  88  77 /  80  70  60  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Pasco-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
PREV DISCUSSION...05/Carlisle and 11/McKaughan
UPPER AIR...19/Hurt
RADAR...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
953 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     WATER SPOUT      1 W SARASOTA            27.34N 82.57W
10/10/2018                   GMZ853             FL   PUBLIC

            WATER SPOUT REPORTED NEAR CITY ISLAND IN SARASOTA BAY.

&&

JHUBBARD