Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
938 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

.UPDATE...

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms has been extended
southward across parts of SE Alabama and the western FL Panhandle
by the SPC. The main threat will be isolated damaging winds as a
line of strong thunderstorms moves southeastward into our area.
Instability will increase to around 1000 J/kg by early afternoon
in these areas, with 0-6 km bulk shear remaining near or above 40
kts. While low level shear and helicity will slowly decrease
throughout the day, values could be sufficient to support an
isolated tornado in our far northwestern areas, especially along
any surface boundaries that develop. Despite mostly cloudy to
overcast skies, high temperatures should reach the lower to mid
70s across most of our area under increasing southerly flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [651 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cold front will push southeastward and move into our CWA this
afternoon and evening. As this occurs, rain chances will increase
with the best chances (50% or greater) along and west of a line
from around Tifton, GA to Panama City. Scattered thunderstorms
are also expected and a few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out, especially for our northwest zones where instability
and shear will be highest. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk
area just to the northwest of our CWA. Highs will be in the middle
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

For tonight, a cold front will be bisecting the area to start the
overnight hours with scattered showers. Instability will be lower
than today, so any remaining thunderstorms are expected to weaken
around sunset. Fairly high dewpoints in the mid 60s advecting over
cooler shelf waters in the mid 50s may allow for some advection
fog to spread inland across portions of the Florida panhandle and
big bend ahead of the front. Any fog that occurs will gradually
end from west to east through the overnight hours as the cold
front pushes through the area. Overnight lows will generally range
from the mid 40s across the northwest portions of the area behind
the front to around 60 across the southeast big bend ahead of the
front.

For Thursday, expect dry conditions behind the front with highs
ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Overnight
lows Thursday night are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid
50s.

For Friday, a surface high will slide rapidly eastward off the
northeast coast with easterly surface flow bringing some low level
moisture back into the area. Scattered showers are possible across
the area with highs ranging from the lower 60s across the north
to mid 70s across the southeast big bend.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

An active period is expected with the subtropical jet making an
appearance in our weather this weekend into early next week. This
has not happened much this winter with the La Nina in place, and
this pattern is our chance to put a dent in the drought conditions
across the area. A series of subtle upper level disturbances
embedded within the subtropical jet will affect our region this
weekend with fairly high rain chances across the area. Some
thunderstorms are possible as well, but the lack of a well defined
surface low and stronger wind fields in any of the guidance is
expected to preclude a robust severe weather threat. Temperatures
will be above average with deep layer southwest flow.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

MVFR/IFR CIGS will prevail today. Winds will be southerly
10 to 15 kts with occasional higher gusts. Mostly light rain
and some scattered thunderstorms will spread from east to west
across the region ahead of a cold front.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds today will become northerly tonight behind a cold
front with exercise caution conditions possible west of
Apalachicola late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to become easterly on Friday and then southerly this
weekend with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely again
this weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Several chances of rain will occur over the next several days,
which could gradually improve the moderate to severe drought
conditions across the area by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  53  69  54  70 /  30  50  10  10  30
Panama City   71  51  65  54  67 /  60  40  10  10  20
Dothan        73  45  65  47  63 / 100  40   0  10  40
Albany        74  47  65  46  62 /  80  60  10  10  50
Valdosta      75  53  65  52  67 /  40  50  10  10  30
Cross City    77  60  72  55  75 /  10  20  10  10  20
Apalachicola  70  55  66  55  66 /  30  50  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Lahr
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD