Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

227 
WWUS41 KRNK 111938
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A complex storm system will develop over the southeastern US
today then begin moving northeast tonight and Monday, eventually
toward the North Carolina coast later in the day Monday. While
there remain some uncertainties, confidence is increasing that
this storm has the potential to bring moderate to heavy snow to
much of the forecast area, especially near and west of the Blue
Ridge, Sunday night through Monday morning.

NCZ002-121000-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180312T0400Z-180313T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WS.W.0002.180312T0400Z-180313T0400Z/
Alleghany NC-
Including the city of Sparta
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Snow may mix with sleet early
  Monday morning. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Alleghany NC County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. The
  Monday morning commute will be significantly impacted.  Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010>020-022>024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-121000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0002.180312T0400Z-180313T0400Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Bland, Pearisburg,
Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop,
Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, 
Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, 
Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, 
and Rainelle
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Snow is expected to begin after
  midnight and fall heaviest in the morning hours. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 8
  inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West 
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Monday. Be prepared 
  for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ020-121000-
/O.EXA.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180312T0400Z-180313T0400Z/
Yadkin-
Including the city of Yadkinville
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snow may mix with sleet early Monday
  morning. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yadkin County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  Monday morning commute will be significantly impacted. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ003>006-019-VAZ007-009-032-043>047-058-059-121000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180312T0400Z-180313T0400Z/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Patrick-
Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Stuart, Martinsville, Danville, 
Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snow may mix with sleet at times in the
  upper NC Piedmont. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest 
  Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  Monday morning commute will be significantly impacted. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Loconto

482 
WWUS41 KRNK 120849
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
449 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Several Inches of Snow Still Expected Today...

A complex storm system was developing across the southeastern U.S.
This storm system will increase in strength and move northeast
toward the North Carolina coast later in the day Monday. The first
area of snow was moving through much of the forecast area this
morning and additional snow, some moderate to heavy at times, will
move across the region throughout the day and into the evening.
Thus Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect through midnight for all of the forecast area, which
includes northwest and north central North Carolina, southwest,
south central, and west central Virginia, along with southeast
West Virginia.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ010>020-022>024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
122100-
/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Bland, 
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, 
Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
449 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet. Additional snow and some sleet 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Total snow and 
  sleet accumulations of 4-6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West 
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ007-009-032-043>047-058-059-122100-
/O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-
Patrick-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Stuart, Martinsville, 
Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
449 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet. Additional snow and sleet 
  accumulations of up to two inches, with localized amounts up to 
  4 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest 
  Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

RAB

419 
WWUS41 KRNK 121832
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Accumulating snows possible in the east this evening and 
western upslope areas tonight into Wednesday morning...

Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will deepen this 
evening and lift northeast along the East Coast tonight into
Tuesday. Drier air is moving into western areas tonight, however 
northwest flow will create upslope mountain snow showers. 


WVZ508-130245-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180313T0000Z-180314T1200Z/
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times. Additional snow accumulations of
  two to five inches, with localized higher amounts are expected.

* WHERE...Western Greenbrier County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ002-VAZ010>020-022>024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-121945-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Alleghany NC-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The heaviest snow has ended this afternoon. Drivers should use
caution this evening into tonight with many roadway remaining snow
covered and slick.  

$$

VAZ007-009-121945-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Tazewell-Smyth-
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The heaviest snow has ended this afternoon. Drivers should use
caution this evening into tonight with many roadway remaining snow
covered and slick.  


$$

NCZ001-018-130245-
/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Ashe-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson and Boone
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet. Additional snow and some sleet 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Total snow and 
  sleet accumulations of 4-6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West 
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-043>047-058-059-130245-
/O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, 
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Stuart, Martinsville, Danville, 
Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville
232 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet. Additional snow and sleet 
  accumulations of up to two inches, with localized amounts up 
  to 4 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest 
  Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

350 
WWUS41 KRNK 122327
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Accumulating Snow Expected in the Western Mountains Tonight 
into Wednesday morning...
...Black Ice Likely Tonight...

Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will deepen this 
evening and lift northeast along the East Coast tonight into 
Tuesday. 

NCZ001-018-130730-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180312T2327Z-180313T1400Z/
Ashe-Watauga-
Including the cities of West Jefferson and Boone
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are
  expected. Black ice tonight as temperatures drop below freezing.  

* WHERE...Ashe and Watauga Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute on Tuesday. Tree branches could fall
  due to the combination of heavy wet snow and increasing
  northwest wind. Snow that melted today will refreeze overnight.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ032-043>047-058-059-130030-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-180313T0400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has ended across the foothills and piedmont of Virginia.
Melted snow will refreeze overnight as temperatures drop below
freezing. Be prepared for areas of black ice overnight and during
the morning commute, especially on untreated roads and sidewalks. 

$$

WVZ508-130730-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.180312T2327Z-180314T1200Z/
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Western Greenbrier County.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to 
  impossible, including during the morning commute on Tuesday. 
  Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ004>006-130730-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-
Including the cities of Eden and Yanceyville
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Black Ice. 

* WHERE...Stokes, Rockingham and Caswell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow has
  ended across the piedmont of North Carolina. Melted snow will 
  refreeze overnight as temperatures drop below freezing. Be 
  prepared for areas of black ice overnight and during the morning
  commute, especially on untreated roads and sidewalks. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1252 AM EST Sun Mar 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing winter storm across the southeast U.S. Sunday will
move into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night
and Monday bringing a more significant threat of snow to much
of the area. Cold high pressure will build over the area by
Wednesday and continue through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1010 PM EST Saturday...

Cloud cover keeping temperatures milder late this evening and
dew points generally above freezing across the forecast area,
but into the 20s across northern VA and even some teens across
far nrn VA, nrn WV, MD and PA. That air mass will ooze down
from the north and northeast toward morning and into Sunday, but
still remains uncertain if higher dew points air will push back
north before much of the precip moves in across the area with
the first of the waves of lift over the weak wedge toward on
Sunday. This will be one of the keys as to how soon precip can
change to snow late Sunday. In the meantime, tonight should
remain dry although a few isolated rain showers could slide
into northwestern and north central NC toward dawn but it seems
models have been a little too agressive with that across nrn GA
so far this evening. Otherwise cloudy and bumped the low temps
up a degree or too, as did the highs for Sunday given that most
of the showers will not impact much of the forecast area until
late.

Previous forecast as of 645 PM EST Saturday...

With cloud cover likely hanging tough tonight - exception being
some limited erosion/breaks along or north of I-64, but mostly
before midnight - opted to raise temperatures up areawide a
couple degrees through 1 AM. Region is essentially stuck between
warm front over the I-40 corridor to our south and dry ridge of
high pressure now extending into the northern/central VA area
into northern WV. 18z NAM/GFS solutions suggest any breaks in
clouds before midnight are short-lived and will fill back in
toward the pre- dawn hours. These guidance as well as MOS also
show low-level drying/lowered dewpoints and modest cool
advection as trajectories come from a north to north-northeast
direction as ridge builds over a greater part of central VA.
Best chance of any showers is really in northern NC closer to
the warm front and more after midnight, but even then PoPs are
no higher than low Chance. Overall mostly cloudy conditions
should predominate with lows between the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Previous discussion issued at 200 PM follows...

Transition period for the next 24 hours or so as an upper level
disturbance drops from the upper Great Plains southward toward
the Tennessee Valley with low pressure forecast to develop over
the southeast and take aim at the forecast area mainly Sunday
night. In the meantime we will remain within a rather diffuse
weather pattern with weak high pressure to the north and the
developing system over the southeast providing plenty of
residual cloudiness along with cool temperatures. Temperature
range will be dampened by persistent cloudiness tonight and
Sunday with lows upper 20s to mid-30s tonight and mid-30s to low
40s Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

An upper level low will track from the northern Rockies today,
over the north-central plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley
tonight, then to the Tennessee Valley Sunday night. The closed
low is expected to become an open trough as it moves over the
Carolinas on Monday. While this system is moving southeast over
the US, a weak surface high pressure is expected to wedge south
across the Carolinas Sunday night and erode during the day
Monday. Models have been consistent with these features over the
past couple of day. Where they differ is where surface wave(s)
develop and which becomes the dominate low going into Monday.
The GFS/NAM has a weak surface wave developing west of the
southern Appalachians and along the western edge of the wedge
tracking north. This wave will bring warmer air into the area,
especially over the wedge which could result in a wintry mix of
snow and sleet. Most models, including the GFS, have a wave that
develops along the southern end of the wedge (SC/GA). Models
have this southern wave become the dominate low moving off the
coast Monday afternoon/evening. If this wave develops that far
south, most of the area will remain cold with precipitation type
being either rain and/or snow. One other difference between
models is where phasing of the northern stream (closed low) and
the southern stream (surface waves) begins to take shape. The
GFS/NAM is further west, which could lead to a deformation zone
tracking over the area. The ECM phases the two streams off the
coast Monday afternoon.

All models have a strong mid level fetch of moisture from the
Gulf and low level fetch from the Atlantic. Initially,
isentropic and orographical lift will be the main producer of
precipitation. On the back-end, lift will be provided by the
deformation zone (if one comes over the region). Liquid
precipitation amounts can range from a half an inch to two
inches (0.50-2.00). The higher end of the range will be along
the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.

Along with all the uncertainty list above, precipitation type
and winter mix amounts will also be difficult to forecast. The
environment and surface temperatures (upper 20s to mid 30s)
support either a wet snow or a cold rain, some areas could see
both. If a stronger warm nose is introduced Monday, then sleet
could play a role in reducing snow amounts. In a worse case
scenario where precipitation is all snow, the area could see 3
inches over the piedmont to foot across the mountains. Since
profiles and surface temperatures are so close to the freezing
mark, this event could turn out to be a white rain or all rain
event with zero accumulation of snow. After looking at all the
model data, analogs and climatology, we believe snowfall amounts
will range from 1-2 inches over the piedmont to 1-3 inches in
the foothills. The mountains will see a range of 2-5 inches with
localize higher amounts along the Blue Ridge and higher ridge
tops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Monday's system will move off the coast during the evening.
Another upper system will wobble over the Great Lakes-Toronto
area into Tuesday. This system is expected to move off the New
England coast Wednesday with the upper level trough axis
pivoting over the region Wednesday. Until this trough moves
east, upslope snow showers and mountain flurries are likely
Monday night into Wednesday evening. High pressure will build
over the region Thursday, keeping the area dry into Saturday
morning. An approaching cold front will bring rain into the area
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...

Broken to overcast skies the remainder of the night with
VFR/MVFR ceilings. There have been some brief breaks and for
KBLF and KLWB this could result in brief periods of IFR fog,
but don't think this will last very long as clouds will
generally thicken as the night progresses. Bases will range from
2500 to 7000 ft, with best chance MVFR in the Appalachians and
southern Blue Ridge mainly affecting KBLF and KLWB. Winds light
overnight but should pick from the NE primarily at KLYH in the
5 to 10 kt range as surface high pressure to the north nudges
down along the Blue Ridge.

Sunday will feature a gradual deterioration in flight
categories toward widespread MVFR as warm front attempts to make
its way north. Models continue to show the lower ceilings and
light showers will be very slow to move north out of North
Carolina during the day and may not reach locations such as
KBLF, KBCB, and KROA until after 00Z. After that time IFR
conditions more likely and certainly will be the case at most
TAF sites by 04Z to 06Z. The exceptions would be KLWB and KLYH
which may not get to IFR until Monday morning. IFR conditions
will not just be due to lowering ceilings but the spread of more
steady precip and then changing to snow between about 02Z to
06Z in the mountains. Other locations will remain rain through
this TAF period.

Moderate confidence on ceilings, visbys and winds through the
06z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

As an upper level wave deepens west of the Appalachians by
Monday morning and an associated surface low develops to our
south and then southeast along the coast during the day Monday,
most locations will see accumulations of snow lasting through
midday on Monday in the mountains, and as long as late afternoon
farther east at KLYH and KDAN. Significant accumulations of
heavy wet snow are likely in the mountains, which will certainly
impact flying conditions and runway usability during the heart
of the accumulations Monday morning and lingering into the
afternoon. Snowfall amounts of at least 4 inches are possible
from KBLF to KBCB to KROA, and may approach that at KLWB and
KLYH. Perhaps a couple inches at KDAN by later on Monday.

Conditions should begin to improve from west to east by midday
Monday and then by late afternoon and evening across the
Piedmont. VFR should return to the Piedmont by Monday night and
may do so in the west as well, although MVFR may be more likely
with upslope clouds at KBLF and KLWB.

Upslope snow showers will return later Tuesday in the west and
likely cause sub-VFR conditions at least at KBLF, KLWB, and at
times for KBCB and these conditions could last in NW flow
through at least Wednesday if not into Thursday with brisk NW
winds.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 345 PM EST Saturday...

The Mount Jefferson NWR will remain off the air until at least
Monday awaiting repair to equipment that was damaged by a power
outage during last week;s high wind event.

In addition, the Richlands NWR is also off the air. The problems
here stem from telephone line problems between our office and
the transmitter. The telephone company has been notified.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...AL/PC/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AL/PC/SK
EQUIPMENT...RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
329 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-112030-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
329 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Snow is expected Sunday night and Monday, potentially enough to
warrant a Winter Weather Advisory for this area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
112030-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
329 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS