Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

610 
WWUS85 KPIH 250452
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018


IDZ427-250600-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180725T0500Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427...

The National Weather Service in Pocatello has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. 

Scattered thunderstorms have diminished acrosss the area therefore
the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
922 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.UPDATE...

Increased thunderstorm chances for this afternoon and evening,
mainly near the Montana border where satellite is already showing
developing thunderheads. But also seeing cumulus development along
the highlands that border the Magic Valley. Hi-res models are
showing convection developing along the Montana border this
afternoon as well as the Magic Valley. Models then extend the
convection into the Snake Plain and eastern highlands late this
afternoon and into the early evening. Coverage is a little
concerning, especially for fire weather concerns. For example, the
HRRR is very robust with convection while the 3km NAM not nearly
as aggressive and some of the WRF solutions are more of a
compromise of the two. So, we may need to issue a short notice red
flag warning if satellite/radar trends start showing scattered
versus isolated tstorm development. No updates to temps.

Valle

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. A rather stationary pattern
has set up for the northern Great Basin. Troughing in central Canada
will allow weak impulses to move through western Montana,
providing enough moisture on this side of the Continental Divide
to trigger light showers and thunderstorms. The main focus for
this stream of moist and unstable air is actually western Wyoming
more than us. The other stream of moist and unstable air continues
to flow from Utah and Nevada, and, as it has been for about a
week, generates showers and thunderstorms along the Idaho-Utah
border. Today, it looks like it may be able to bring those
thunderstorms to the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River
plain. All the cloud cover does not appear to be affecting the
temperatures, and Pocatello is getting close to set a record
number of consecutive days of reaching 90F or warmer. In fact, the
pattern is so stagnant, that it should extend this streak to the
end of the month, making it 28 days. Wind continues fairly weak
except for afternoon gustiness in the Snake River plain.

LONG TERM...Fri through Mon night. There is a temporary drying
out of the northern stream mentioned above, leaving the central
Idaho mountains and the Idaho-Montana border dry for Sat and Sun,
but otherwise a very weak threat of showers and thunderstorms on
the other days. The southern stream continues unabated. Basically,
carbon-copy days of what we have been experiencing continues-very
likely to the end of the month. Very little rainfall, but only
slightly warmer than normal. Messick

Another difficult day in trying to determine
thunderstorm placement today. Consensus from high resolution
model runs puts best chances at KBYI terminal early afternoon,
spreading northeast toward KPIH by late afternoon. There is a
small possibility that some of the development along the Divide
later today could shift toward KIDA and KDIJ as well during the
late afternoon and early evening. Will carry VCTS at these
terminals during the periods most likely affected. KSUN appears to
be spared by most solutions so will cautiously leave all mention
of TS out of that terminal today. Storms today will have potential
to produce 40kt gusts. DMH

FIRE WEATHER...Moisture spreading across the region today will help
to fuel thunderstorm development. 427/411 and the eastern half of
476 the highest risk areas early afternoon, with activity spreading
toward 413 and 410. Cannot rule out fringe development in
surrounding zones as well. Gusty winds over 40 mph the most likely
threat. Despite dry surface air, moisture content rather high so
brief heavy rainfall likely with the isolated coverage of the
storms. A few storms remain possible Wednesday, but drier conditions
expected for the rest of the week. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&