Wind Advisory 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

017 
WWUS71 KPHI 131728
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1228 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131830-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1800Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
1228 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Wind Advisory.

Wind gusts have dropped below advisory levels, therefore the Wind
Advisory has been cancelled. However, winds will still gust 30 to
40 mph through this afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
631 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was moving northeastward across our region early
this morning and it was pulling a strong cold front to the east
in its wake. The low is forecast to reach Canada's Maritime
Provinces around midday. Arctic high pressure is anticipated to
build into our region from the west for Sunday and Monday. Weak
low pressure is forecast to approach from the Great Lakes on
Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure off the coast may affect
our weather during the middle of the new week. High pressure is
expected to follow for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure and a strong cold front are crossing NJ and
Delmarva attm. Significant precipitation has already exited the
area. scattered rain/snow showers are possible for the next few
hours. A SPS will be issued for possible black ice across the
area, with the rapidly falling temperatures. Temperatures will
slowly fall after this mornings significant temperature
declines. High will occur early today and by tonight, readings
will have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
High pressure across the Midwest states will continue to push
towards the area tonight. We will still be in the push of colder
air drier air being advected across the area. Skies will be
clear for the most part. A few clouds across the far N/W are
possible. Temperatures will fall well below normal, with single
digits N/W and teens elsewhere. Wind chill values will range
from 0 to -10 up across the highest elevations N/W to the single
digits across Delmarva and metro Philadelphia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday through Monday...As the low pressure continues to move
away, we will see high pressure building into the region. The
pressure gradient will remain fairly tight through at least
midday Sunday before starting to relax. This will help to keep
the winds up across the region. With a northerly flow, cold air
will filter into the area and it will feel markedly colder than
recent days.

High temperatures will remain cold through Sunday and Monday.
Although some moderating of the temps on Monday is expected as
the high shifts to the north of our area and we see more of
return flow develop across our area. Highs on Sunday will remain
in the upper teens across the north to the mid to upper 20s
across the rest of the area. Monday is expected to be around 5
degrees warmer than Sunday.

Conditions through this period are expected to remain dry.

Monday Night Through Friday...

Overview...

A southern stream shortwave skirts by to our south off the
Carolinas Monday night. A trough across the eastern US amplifies
and cuts off Wednesday into Thursday, with large model
disagreement on where this occurs. Meanwhile, high amplitude
ridge over western North America gradually weakens along with a
lack of high latitude blocking over the Davis Strait. These
features, along with additional shortwave energy feeding into
the northeast US, suggest the cut off low will gradually fill
and lift northeast of the Middle Atlantic by Fri.

For sensible weather, an Alberta Clipper gives two
opportunities for precipitation Monday night into Thursday.

Mon night through Tue night...With the approach of the Alberta
Clipper low, the first chance for light wintry precipitation is
possible. The ECMWF keeps a surface ridge to the east in place
longer compared to the GFS. Thus, the GFS begins precip as early
as Mon night while the ECMWF holds off until Tue. The GEFS mean
is more conservative compared to the GFS, with precip beginning
across the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley later Tue night.
We continue to confine precip to the aforementioned areas for
Tue night, becoming more widespread across the remainder of our
region into Wed.

As for precipitation type, a consensus of the guidance
maintains 2-meter temperatures below freezing during this
period. Model soundings indicate temperatures below freezing
through the column, in addition to the mid and upper levels
being saturated with respect to ice. While soundings indicate a
veering low-level wind profile, suggestive of warm air
advection, soundings do not indicate much in the way of a warm
nose. Therefore, expect predominantly snow, with little if any
mixed precip at this point. Given modeled QPF is relatively
light, do not expect more than a dusting to a couple inches of
snowfall potential, with the highest amounts focused northwest
of the fall-line at this time. With sub-freezing temperatures,
this would make roadways slick.

Temperatures near seasonal levels.

Wed thru Fri...Alberta Clipper moving through the lower Great
Lakes with eventual redevelopment further east, but the tough
question is exactly: where? The latest suite of 12Z/12
operational models continue to diverge, with little run to run
consistency. The GFS develops low pressure off the NC coast Wed
night and moves it northeast along the northern wall of the Gulf
Stream, well south of the 40N/70W benchmark, into Thursday. The
UKMET is similar.

These scenarios would have little impact on our region, with
the storm system remaining well offshore. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
is much further west, developing low pressure east of the
Virginia Capes Wed night, then northward through Cape Cod on
Thu. It's expansive precip shield on the western side of the
system (a bit of a model bias at times) is also suspect.
Nevertheless, this solution has greater impacts on our region in
terms of wintry weather.

The respective ensembles are similar, the GEFS further east and
the EPS further west. But there is a lot of spread noted in the
mid- level height fields of both the GEFS and EPS regarding the
placement of the cutoff low, which translates into uncertainty
with the location of the attendant surface system, e.g., storm
track. WPC favors a blend of the GEFS and EPS ensembles, which
places emphasis on more extensive redevelopment further north
and east of our region, which would limit impacts.

This scenario would favor a return to generally fair weather
Thursday into Friday, and we continue that thinking with this
forecast, with caveat that confidence is on the lower side given
the uncertainty. Therefore, impactful weather is still
possible, and we advise paying attention to future forecasts.

Otherwise, it will be unseasonably cold Wednesday into Friday,
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru dawn...Winds shifting to W/NW and gusting up to 25 knots.
MVFR conditions will improve to VFR in a few hours behind the
front. Sct rain/snow showers psbl.

Today...Improving to VFR from NW to SE. Gusty NW winds 15 to 25
knots

Tonight...VFR. Mostly SKC. Mostly NW winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...
Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 to
15 knots, becoming more northerly overnight. Confidence: High.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light north to
northeast winds. Increasing mid-high clouds late. Confidence:
Moderate.

Monday night...Periods of light snow and IFR conditions are
possible late, mainly at ABE and RDG. Light northwest winds.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Periods of light snow and IFR
conditions are possible across all the terminals, with the
greatest potential in terms of intensity and duration at ABE and
RDG. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Overall, lower confidence
prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will be moving NE of the waters today. A
strong cold front will cross the area this morning. Winds which
are mostly srly early this morning will abruptly change to north
or northeast behind the front. Later on, winds will become
Northwest at 15 to 25 knots. Showers this morning, then fair
weather.

Outlook...
Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 to
15 knots, becoming more northerly overnight. Confidence: High.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light north to
northeast winds. Increasing mid-high clouds late. Confidence:
Moderate.

Monday night...Periods of light snow and IFR conditions are
possible late, mainly at ABE and RDG. Light northwest winds.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Periods of light snow and IFR
conditions are possible across all the terminals, with the
greatest potential in terms of intensity and duration at ABE and
RDG. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Overall, lower confidence
prevails.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Meola/O'Hara
Marine...Meola/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
806 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-141315-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
806 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Any standing water will freeze later this morning and this afternoon
as temperatures plummet to below freezing. Travel with caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Some accumulating snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-141315-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
806 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-132100-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
612 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...

A strong cold front has passed through our region. Temperatures
will be below freezing through the weekend in northern New Jersey,
and in the Pocono Region, the Lehigh Valley and Berks County in
Pennsylvania.

Runoff and standing water from the recent rain will continue to
freeze on roads, walkways and parking lots. If you will be going
out over the weekend be prepared for icy conditions.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>024-026-027-
PAZ070-071-101>106-132100-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Rehoboth Beach, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House,
Ocean City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
612 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...

A strong cold front has passed through southeastern Pennsylvania,
central and southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern
Maryland. Temperatures will fall below freezing this morning in
our region and they should remain there through the weekend.

Runoff and standing water from the recent rain will freeze on
roads, walkways and parking lots. If you will be going out over
the weekend be prepared for icy conditions.

Iovino

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     FREEZING RAIN    POCONO MOUNTAINS AIRPOR 41.14N  75.38W
01/13/2018  M0.02 INCH       MONROE             PA   ASOS/AWOS

            RADIAL ICE MEASUREMENT. FZRA REPORTED FROM 354-412 AM
            BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO IP AND SN.

0601 AM     FREEZING RAIN    SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
01/13/2018  M0.00 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS/AWOS

            RADIAL MEASUREMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800074
EVENT NUMBER PHI1800075

JRK