Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

463 
WHUS71 KPHI 052326
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
626 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

ANZ431-061100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-181106T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.181106T1500Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
626 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small 
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 10:00 AM until 6:00 PM 
Tuesday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* LOCATION...Lower Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with 
  gusts up to 30 knots from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday 
  afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-061100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.181106T1500Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
626 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...Upper Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with
  gusts up to 30 knots from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
  afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-061100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
626 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots this evening
  becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots overnight. South to southwest
  winds on Tuesday increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
  30 knots. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
  on Tuesday night. Seas 4 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Iovino

240 
WHUS71 KPHI 060222
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
922 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

ANZ450>455-061400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
922 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots 
  becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots overnight. South to southwest 
  winds on Tuesday increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 
  30 knots. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots on
  Tuesday night. Seas 4 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-061400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.181106T1500Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
922 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with
  gusts up to 30 knots from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
  afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Iovino

694 
WHUS71 KPHI 060847
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
347 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

ANZ450>452-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
347 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots,
  becoming south to southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30
  knots later this morning and afternoon. West winds 10 to 15
  knots with gusts up to 25 knots tonight. Seas 4 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
347 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15
  to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt later this morning and
  afternoon. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
  tonight. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.181106T1500Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
347 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Winds becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt with 
  gusts up to 30 kt later this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 
  feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

564 
WHUS71 KPHI 061411
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

ANZ450>452-070300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
911 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of northern New Jersey.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-070300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
911 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of southern New Jersey 
  and Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-062300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.181106T1500Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
911 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

158 
WHUS71 KPHI 061727
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

ANZ450>452-070700-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of northern New Jersey.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-070700-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of southern New Jersey 
  and Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-062300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

977 
WHUS71 KPHI 062016
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

ANZ430-431-062130-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-181106T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
316 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

Wind gusts have diminished to less than 25 kt, therefore, the
Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

ANZ450>452-071100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
316 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of northern New Jersey.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-071100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
316 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of southern New Jersey 
  and Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

391 
WHUS71 KPHI 070849
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

ANZ453>455-071000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
349 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

Wind gusts have diminished to less than 25 knots and seas have 
fallen below 5 feet, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been 
cancelled.

$$

ANZ450>452-071500-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
349 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of northern New Jersey.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

073 
WHUS71 KPHI 071432
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
932 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

ANZ450>452-071545-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-181107T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
932 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

Wind gusts are expected to remain below 25 knots today, with 3 to
5 foot seas. The Small Craft Advisory has therefore been
cancelled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will approach the area from the south
this morning, before lifting northward along the Delaware and
New Jersey coasts through the afternoon and evening. An
associated warm front will slowly lift northward tonight into
Tuesday morning, before a cold front sweeps across the area
Tuesday afternoon and offshore by Tuesday evening. West to
northwesterly flow will develop Tuesday night and continue
through Thursday as low pressure will remain across eastern
Canada and high pressure noses in from the west. High pressure
will move into New England Thursday night, before a low pressure
and frontal system move across the area Friday. High pressure
then is expected to build in later in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low over the Carolinas will move northward along a warm
front this morning and up the coast this afternoon. Associated
rain continues to make its way northward. Expect the rain to
overspread the region through this morning and then continue
through the afternoon today as the surface low pushes up along
the coast.

Rain may become heavy at times as the low makes it way
northward. The guidance shows a slug of moderate to heavy
rainfall crossing through the region this afternoon but continue
to differ on exactly where we can expect the heaviest rain to
fall. The 00Z runs of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF in general show a good
amount falling across Delmarva and southern New Jersey while the
hi-res models seem to show a good amount moving through eastern
Pennsylvania. Amounts up to 2 inches are currently in the
forecast but could see some higher amounts as the low level jet
and best isentropic lift move over the region this afternoon.

Additionally, winds will become gusty through this afternoon,
especially closer to the coast, as the pressure gradient wraps
up.

The continued easterly flow will keep temperatures on the
cooler side, especially the further inland you go. 40s in the
northwestern zones with 50s across much of the region and 60s
towards the coast and across southern Delaware/southeastern
Maryland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The surface low along the coast will push to our north tonight.
Most of the precipitation will wane but some scattered showers
will remain possible through the overnight, especially across
the northern half of the forecast area. Drizzle and fog will
also remain possible through the overnight. In general, it
doesn't look like it will be a great night across the Mid-
Atlantic with drizzle and low clouds dominant in the continued
easterly flow.

Temperatures will feel cold although they will remain more mild
due to the extensive cloud cover. Lows will drop into the upper
40s to low to mid 50s across most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast starts off with a potentially active day
Tuesday. A warm front will be lifting across the area during
the morning, while a cold front approaches from the west. North
of the warm front, there will remain cloud cover and light rain
and/or drizzle until the warm front lifts through the area. By
the time warm front lifts across the area, the cold front will
be approaching the area from the west. This may limit
instability for portions of the area across northeast
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, however, areas farther
south may get enough into the warm sector for some instability
to develop. Even without instability, there will be pretty large
shear values (50-60+ knots) with 60-70 knot mid level winds.
This would present a low CAPE/high shear environment capable of
producing a low topped squall line with damaging winds possible.
The SPC has portions of southeast Pennsylvania, southern New
Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland outlined in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms, while the rest of the area is outlined in
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Due to the warm front
lifting across the area, we will need to keep a watch for
rotating storms Tuesday as well.

There is also the potential for heavy rainfall on Tuesday as PW
values increase to 1.5-1.75 inches across the area. The good
news it the storms should have enough forward progress as the
front is pretty progressive to prevent a significant flash flood
threat. However, there could be areas of urban/poor drainage
flooding.

The front will be moving offshore by Tuesday evening, bring dry
weather behind it. The dry weather will continue into
Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday as west to northwest
flow develops across the area low pressure will remain across
eastern Canada and high pressure noses in from the west. This
high pressure will quickly move across the area later Thursday
into Thursday night, before lifting into New England Thursday
night into Friday.

On Friday, a double barreled storm system will affect the
northeast, with one low moving across the Great Lakes region and
a stronger low moving near the coastal portions of Delaware and
New Jersey. In between the two lows will be an occluded frontal
boundary that will lift across the area. This will bring a
period of increasing showers Friday into Friday evening. If the
showers begin early enough early Friday morning, temperatures
may be cold enough across the higher elevations of northeast
Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey for some snow to occur
before changing to rain.

The low will move into New England Friday night, however, there
could remain some wrap around showers on the backside of the
low across the northeastern Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey. Temperatures may cool enough during the overnight if
showers hold on long enough for some snow to occur for the
higher elevations.

Dry weather is expected Saturday into Saturday night as high
pressure builds in from the west later Saturday into Saturday
night. There is disagreement between the models for Sunday with
a cold front being depicted by the GFS, and the Canadian and
ECMWF showing high pressure across the area. We will have a
slight chance across portions of eastern Pennsylvania and
northwestern New Jersey for the potential of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR conditions will continue to deteriorate into this
afternoon in -SHRA. Conditions will lower IFR, remaining down
through the entirety of the day. East to northeast winds around
10 knots with some gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Mainly IFR conditions will continue through tonight.
Rain will become more scattered and remains light, with fog and
drizzle possible. Easterly winds drop off overnight, becoming
light and variable.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...IFR conditions expected through the morning with low
clouds and drizzle. Conditions may improve briefly as a warm
front lifts across the area, before showers increase during the
day and a line of strong showers or thunderstorms move across
the area during the afternoon and lower conditions again as a
cold front moves across the area. East to southeast winds
expected ahead of the warm front, becoming south to southwest
behind the warm front, then west behind the cold front. Winds
may gust 20-30 knots for some areas during the afternoon,
especially with the stronger line of showers or thunderstorms.
Low Level Wind Shear will also likely be a concern Tuesday with
40-50 knot winds near 2,000 feet.

Tuesday night...VFR conditions expected behind the cold front.
Westerly winds around 10 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots
possible at times.

Wednesday-Thursday night...VFR conditions expected. West winds
Wednesday, becoming northwest Wednesday night and Thursday, then
north to northeast Thursday night. Winds may gust 15-20 knots
at times, especially during the daytime hours.

Friday...VFR early, lowering to MVFR or IFR during the day with
increasing showers. Easterly winds may gust 15-20 knots at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning in effect for the Delaware Bay and southern New
Jersey and Delaware coastal waters through this afternoon. Gale
Warning in effect for the northern New Jersey coastal waters
from this afternoon through this evening.

Model soundings show a solid layer of gale force winds just
above the surface across the area waters today. Although lapse
rates aren't very strong, with the winds only a few hundred feet
above the surface, expect them to mix down to the surface for
at least several hours today. Strongest winds will be this
morning across the southern waters and then shift to the
northern waters this afternoon. Once the gale gusts have died
down, there may be a couple of hours of SCA gusts. However,
winds will diminish fairly quickly as we head into this evening.

Seas will continue to build today, becoming around 5 to 7 feet
on the ocean.

With seas remaining up through the night, a SCA will be needed
once the gale has been taken down.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory levels conditions expected. Gale
force gusts may be possible, but an inversion above the surface
may keep the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the
surface. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms expected during
the afternoon which have a greater chance of mixing down the
strong winds

Tuesday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to
continue into the overnight hours with gusty winds around 25
knots and seas around 5 feet.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions may
continue for at least the northern waters.

Thursday-Thursday night...Conditions expected to be below
advisory levels.

Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to develop
during the day with increasing winds and seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an easterly flow today, then redeveloping Tuesday, water
levels are forecast to increase close to or above minor flood
levels with the high tide cycle this evening and also on
Tuesday. Another factor is the new moon on Wednesday, so
astronomical tides will be higher already. Some locations may
increase enough to exceed 0.3 feet above minor flood levels and
require an advisory. Areas along Delaware Bay and the tidal
Delaware River are particularly vulnerable.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450-451.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Meola/MPS
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/Meola
Marine...Robertson/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-PAZ101>104-061015-
Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of heavy rain is possible this morning into this afternoon
which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas where
flooding occurred Friday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday which could lead to
localized flooding, especially in areas where flooding occurred
Friday night.

There is also a slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. The
primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

DEZ001>004-NJZ016>019-021>025-027-PAZ070-071-061015-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of heavy rain is possible this morning into this afternoon
which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas where
flooding occurred Friday night.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday which could lead to
localized flooding, especially in areas where flooding occurred
Friday night.

There is also a slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. The
primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide Tuesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ012>015-020-026-PAZ106-061015-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-Lower Bucks-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of heavy rain is possible this morning into this afternoon
which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas where
flooding occurred Friday night.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday which could lead to
localized flooding, especially in areas where flooding occurred
Friday night.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms on Tuesday. The
primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide Tuesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-105-061015-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Upper Bucks-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of heavy rain is possible this morning into this afternoon
which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas where
flooding occurred Friday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday which could lead to
localized flooding, especially in areas where flooding occurred
Friday night.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms on Tuesday. The
primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ430-431-452>455-061015-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Some storms on Tuesday will be capable of producing wind gusts above
34 knots.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ450-451-061015-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
504 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Some storms on Tuesday will be capable of producing wind gusts above
34 knots.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.