Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Missoula, MT

552 
WWUS85 KMSO 101556
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
956 AM MDT Mon Sep 10 2018

MTZ111-110200-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0007.180910T2000Z-180911T0200Z/
East Beaverhead-
956 AM MDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area: Fire Zone 111 (East Beaverhead). 

* Southwest 20 to 25 mph in the valleys with 30 to 35 mph winds on
  the ridges. Exposed ridges could see slightly higher than 35 
  mph. 

* Minimum humidities in the mid and low teens.

* A dry cold front will move across western Montana causing 
  southwest winds to increase in a dry air mass ahead of the 
  front. 

&&

$$

566 
WWUS85 KMSO 110145
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
745 PM MDT Mon Sep 10 2018

MTZ111-110245-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180911T0200Z/
East Beaverhead-
745 PM MDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Affected area: Fire Zone 111 (East Beaverhead).

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT Mon Sep 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...Radar is already showing some showers moving into
northwest Montana this morning. The moisture and shortwave with
this cold front are moving northeast into Canada, so only
northwest Montana is expected to get some showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms today. However, the surface cold front will move all
across the region today causing gusty winds, with many locations
in western Montana expected to gust over 20 mph this afternoon.

Tuesday the trough sitting over northwest Washington broadens and
deepens into Northwest Montana causing some showers and isolated
thunderstorms. We don't expect a lot of rain with these showers,
just some cooler temperatures and light rain.

A large upper level trough will continue to dig south out of
British Columbia and across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.
Various waves of energetic lift rotating through the base of this
trough will initiate widespread showers and afternoon
thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies from Wednesday through
at least Friday. While overall precipitation totals are expected
to be somewhat light, just about everyone seems to have a chance
for some rain. And it's still possible that the models are under
forecasting the overall atmospheric moisture profile and thus more
rain could occur than what is being forecast.

The ECMWF suggests that the large trough could remain in place
over the region through the weekend. But this is largely dependent
upon how quickly Hurricane Florence gets absorbed into the
westerlies and departs the east coast. Overall the models are in
good agreement from the middle of this week through next weekend
and thus confidence is above average for the extended forecast
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front moving across the region today is causing
some showers in northwest Montana and gusty southwest winds to
develop at area terminals today. Gusty winds will start to
increase around noon local, or 18Z and then start to drop off this
evening around 02Z for most terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening East Beaverhead.

ID...&&