Gale Warning 6, NWS Mobile, AL

689 
WHUS74 KMOB 272006 AAA
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
206 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

GMZ631-632-650-655-280600-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0055.181228T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
206 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Winds 25 to 35 knots

* WAVES/SEAS...Building to 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ670-675-280600-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0055.181228T0000Z-181228T1500Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
206 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Winds 25 to 35 knots

* WAVES/SEAS...Building to 7 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630-633>636-280600-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-181228T0600Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
206 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...Winds 25 to 30 knots

* WAVES/SEAS...Building to 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

205 
WHUS74 KMOB 272051 AAA
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
251 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

GMZ631-632-650-655-280600-
/O.CAN.KMOB.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181228T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0055.181227T2051Z-181228T1200Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
251 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Gale
Warning. 

* WINDS...Winds 18 to 23 knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ670-675-280600-
/O.CAN.KMOB.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181228T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0055.181227T2051Z-181228T1500Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
251 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Gale
Warning. 

* WINDS...Winds 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...7 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630-633>636-272200-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-181228T0600Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
251 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

Small craft should exercise caution through tonight. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
856 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...A wind advisory is now in effect through 6 PM CST this
evening for all locations in Southwest AL, inland Southeast MS
and the Western FL Panhandle. Expect winds at 20 to 25 mph with
frequent gusts to 35 mph through 6 pm this evening. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Patches of light rain will continue shifting
eastward across the area this morning, then will be followed by
showers and storms with heavy rain late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. VFR/MVFR ceilings decrease to IFR/MVFR today with
similar ceilings continuing overnight. Southeast winds 15 to 25
knots become south 10 to 15 knots later tonight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A strong short-wave trof
lifts northward across the Plains today then shears out across the
western Great Lakes tonight.  An associated surface low likewise
moves from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and brings a
trailing cold front to near the lower Mississippi river valley early
this evening, which then progresses slowly to the western periphery
of the forecast area late tonight.  Within a southwest flow regime
aloft, a series of shortwaves move across the region and will bring
precipitation to the area this morning followed by stronger
convection advancing into the area late this afternoon into the
overnight hours.

A 35-40 knot 850 mb jet increases to 40-50 knots this morning, then
gradually becomes southwest and decreases to 30-35 knots overnight.
These higher values result in indicated 0-1 km helicity values of
300-400 m2/s2 today into early this evening then gradually
diminishes overnight as the 850 mb flow becomes more
southwesterly. MLCAPE values and whether or not the convection
becomes surface based remains the key limiting factors. MLCAPE
values increase to 300-500 J/kg over southeast Mississippi and
extreme southwest Alabama by late this afternoon and continues
into early this evening with much lower values further to the
east. MLCAPE values generally near 300 J/kg prevail later tonight.

Model soundings show that convection will tend to remain elevated
due to less than moist adiabatic sfc-3 km lapse rates and compounded
by potentially unfavorable lapse rates within the lowest 1500-2000
ft, the latter of which is a consequence of cool near shore waters
in the 50s.  The exceptions to this may be over interior southeast
Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama during the late afternoon
and early evening hours when daytime heating and the strongest deep
layer lift is expected which may improve lapse rates more than
indicated. SPC currently has a Marginal risk over the western half
of the area along with a Slight risk generally over southeast
Mississippi for this possible improvement in the lapse rates.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the area through
tonight, although the potential for flash flooding really looks
confined to roughly along and west of I-65 where the higher QPF
values are expected.  Will leave to the next shift to reassess any
necessary changes.  A high risk of rip currents continues through
tonight, and a high surf advisory also remains in effect. Considered
the potential for minor coastal flooding, but astronomical tide
values decreasing from now through midday will be a mitigating
factor. /29

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Highly amplified
upper air pattern continues into the short term. Positive tilt
long wave trof to remain positioned from the Plains southwest to
across the Baja Peninsula. Down stream ridging over the southwest
Atlantic. There are indications that a lead mid level
impulse/short wave trof, ejecting northeast out of the parent
trof, moves across the upper Mid-West by late in the day Friday.
This favors a slow eastward frontal passage, causing deeper layer
Gulf moisture axis and ascent to move eastward thru the day over
the central Gulf coast as well. Initially, the higher rain chances
look to remain in place Friday AM, then a decreasing trend in the
western zones Friday afternoon. Considering this and the lower
QPF amounts by Friday afternoon, forecasters have made a small
adjustment to Flash Flood Watch, ending it earlier to Friday AM.
Going into Saturday, more energy ejecting northeast over east TX
and LA causes next round of ascent to operate on zone of deep
moisture for PoPs to become once again likely for much of the
area. Surface front to be aligned over the northern Gulf becomes
quasi-stationary which contributes to forcing. Marginal mid level
lapse rates Saturday looks to be sufficient for the potential of
elevated thunder. Severe weather not expected. /10

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper ridge over the
Bahamas may strengthen enough as to cause the deeper Gulf
moisture, embedded in the higher level southwest flow to shift
northwest a bit. The higher PoPs over the northwest zones to end
the weekend. Next wave of mid level energy ejects northeast across
the MS River Valley, bringing deep layer lift and return to
likely to categorical PoPS Monday. With long wave upper trof axis
remaining west of the area, the passage of a series of mid level
impulses over the central Gulf coast maintains an unsettled
weather pattern into the middle of the next week. Given better
antecedent surface moisture conditions from expected rainfall,
may also be dealing with the formation of night-time fog thru
early in the week. Once we get into the shorter term and a closer
look at higher resolution guidance then, a better assessment of
fog coverage will be gathered. /10

MARINE...A strong southerly flow and hazardous conditions for
small craft prevail through much of tonight then a light to
moderate southwest flow develops on Friday. Will continue with a
small craft advisory for the entire marine area through this
evening then for the open Gulf waters late tonight, and finally
for the 20-60 nm portion until mid Friday morning as winds and
seas gradually subside. A light to moderate east to northeast flow
develops Friday night then becomes southerly by Sunday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Friday morning for
     ALZ051>057-059-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Friday morning for
     FLZ201>204.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Friday morning for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-281530-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

A few severe storms are possible into this afternoon and perhaps
carrying over into the evening, mainly west of a line from Camden
Alabama to Pensacola Florida. Brief strong wind gusts are possible
in and near storms. A brief tornado occurrence cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>057-059-261>264-FLZ201-203-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281530-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

A few severe storms are possible into this afternoon and perhaps
carrying over into the evening, mainly west of a line from Camden
Alabama to Pensacola Florida. Brief strong wind gusts are possible
in and near storms. A brief tornado occurrence cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ058-060-FLZ205-281530-
Crenshaw-Covington-Okaloosa Inland-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Heavy rains will spread slowly west to east over the area late this
afternoon and overnight. Localized flooding is possible over low
lying and urban areas subject to poor drainage from excessive storm
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain could linger into Friday morning, bringing the potential
of localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

FLZ206-281530-
Okaloosa Coastal-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

Heavy rains spread slowly west to east over the area late this
afternoon and overnight. Localized flooding is possible over low
lying and urban areas subject to poor drainage from excessive storm
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

Heavy rain could linger into Friday morning, bringing potential of
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-281530-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ650-655-281530-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ670-675-281530-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.