Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cold high pressure has settled over the state and mid 30s along
with possibility of patchy frost are forecast once again for coldest
northern locations for the first time in awhile. U30s are forecast
as well over a larger inland coverage southward to Okeechobee county
with optimal cooling. Higher dewpoint readings ascd with earlier
onshore sea breeze have manifest along the immediate Space/Treasure
Coasts and expected overnight readings along the immediate coast in
these areas will be adjusted upward to around 40 degrees or higher
the remainder of the night.

The afternoon sea breeze made progress to inland locations by
sunset, however it was quite dry for the whole area this afternoon
with a few brush fires cropping up in the dry afternoon conditions.
A repeat is expected again on Thursday with very low humidity once
again.

...prev disc...
The main forecast problem is frost potential in the pre-dawn hours.
MOS shows a rather large temperature/dew point spread then, but
that guidance is for wide open airports. Noticed that a few wind
protected spots around the Ocala National Forest had much lower
dew point depressions this morning, and boundary layer winds will
be lighter Thu morning. Therefore, have included mention of patchy
frost for north Lake and interior Volusia counties where min
temps in the mid-upper 30s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...Winds should drop off to 10-15 knots.  Seas should
continue near 6 feet in the Gulf Stream, so will retain an exercise
caution statement there.  A high pressure ridge will build across
the peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico on Thu, diminishing winds
below 10 knots with seas subsiding to 3-4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thu...A high pressure ridge will build across the area from the Gulf
of Mexico.  This will diminish winds below 10 mph, but very low RH
will occur in the afternoon, with some interior spots likely
having minimum values 15-20 percent. Coastal sections will have a
sea breeze develop, but the very dry air mass will still allow for
some duration of RH below 35 percent there too. ERC values in
the Upper 30s and higher in some spots will likely require
issuance of a Warning for a portion of the region early on Thursday.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None
AM...None.

&&

JP/JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
826 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-151230-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
826 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Winds will continue to diminish through tonight, but seas will
remain elevated near 6 feet in the Gulf Stream waters. Small craft
should exercise caution if in the offshore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Rainfall forecast remains near zero until late into the weekend,
therefore fire weather concerns will continue. Critically low
relative humidity tomorrow will contribute to additional
vegetative drying and a Very High fire weather risk. A northeast
swell across the local marine waters will promote an elevated rip
current threat at area beaches through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Smith