Gale Warning 7, NWS Milwaukee, WI

280 
WHUS73 KMKX 130227
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
927 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Extended period of high winds and waves is ahead...

.High winds and waves will begin on Friday morning and persist on
Friday night into Saturday.

LMZ643>646-131030-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0040.180413T1200Z-180414T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.180414T0000Z-180414T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
927 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast. Gusts up to 25 knots on Friday, increasing 
  to 40 to 45 knots on Friday night into Saturday. 

* WAVES: Up to 4 to 6 feet on Friday, increasing to 10 feet 
  Friday night, and 15 feet on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

909 
WHUS73 KMKX 130808
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

.Brisk northeast winds and building waves will begin today. Winds
will then become gales for tonight and Saturday while waves become
large. The brisk northerly winds and high waves will then last
into Monday. 

LMZ643>646-131615-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0040.180413T0808Z-180414T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0007.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
308 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

The Gale Warning is now in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM
CDT Saturday. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until
7 PM CDT this evening. 

* WINDS: Northeast 15 to 25 knots today increasing to gales for
  tonight and Saturday. Brisk northerly winds will then continue
  for Sunday and Monday. 
 
* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet this morning building to 4 to 6 feet this
  afternoon, then building to 9 to 12 feet for tonight and
  Saturday. High waves will continue for Sunday and Monday. 
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

236 
WHUS73 KMKX 131426
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-132230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-180414T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
926 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
CDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast 15 to 25 knots today increasing to gales with
  gusts to 40 knots for tonight and Saturday. Brisk northerly 
  winds will then continue for Sunday and Monday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet this morning building to 4 to 6 feet this 
  afternoon, then building to 9 to 13 feet for tonight and 
  Saturday. High waves will continue for Sunday and Monday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

040 
WHUS73 KMKX 132106
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
406 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-140515-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-180414T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0007.180414T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
406 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The Gale Warning is now in effect until 7 AM CDT Sunday. 

* WINDS: Northeast 15 to 25 knots increasing to gales with gusts 
  to 40 knots for tonight and Saturday. Brisk northerly winds will
  then continue for Sunday and Monday. 

* WAVES: 4 to 6 feet this afternoon building to 9 to 13 feet for 
  tonight and Saturday. High waves will continue for Sunday and 
  Monday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

694 
WHUS73 KMKX 140147
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
847 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-141400-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
847 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast 25 to 30 knots increasing to gales with gusts
  to 40 knots for tonight and gusts to 45 knots on Saturday. 
  Brisk northerly winds will then continue for Sunday and Monday. 

* WAVES: 6 to 10 feet this evening building to 10 to 15 feet after
  midnight. 10 to 15 foot waves will continue through Saturday
  evening. Waves will diminish to 4 to 8 feet on Sunday. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

175 
WHUS73 KMKX 140810
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-141615-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
310 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast Gales to 35 knots with Gale gusts to to 45
  knots. Brisk northerly winds will then continue for Sunday and
  Monday. 

* WAVES: 12 to 16 feet through Saturday evening. Waves will
  diminish to 8 to 10 feet on Sunday.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

887 
WHUS73 KMKX 141429
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
929 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-142230-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
929 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast Gales to 35 knots with gusts to to 45 knots. 
  Brisk northerly winds will then continue for Sunday and Monday. 

* WAVES: 12 to 15 feet through this evening. Waves will diminish
  to 8 to 10 feet by late Sunday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

568 
WHUS73 KMKX 141938
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-150345-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
238 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The Gale Warning is now in effect until 10 AM CDT Sunday. 

* WINDS: Northeast Gales to 35 knots with gusts to to 45 knots
  decreasing to Gales to 35 knots later tonight. 

* WAVES: 12 to 14 feet. Waves will diminish to 8 to 10 feet by 
  late Sunday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

106 
WHUS73 KMKX 150141
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
841 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>646-151200-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
841 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast Gales to 35 knots with gusts to to 40 knots
  decreasing to gales to 35 knots overnight.

* WAVES: 12 to 14 feet. Waves will diminish to 8 to 10 feet by 
  late Sunday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

351 
WHUS73 KMKX 150800
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...NORTHEAST GALES THROUGH THE MORNING...

LMZ643-151600-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The Gale Warning is now in effect until 1 PM CDT this afternoon. 

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 30 knots with Gale gusts to 35 knots
  this morning. Northeast to north winds to 30 knots into 
  tonight. 

* WAVES: 9 to 11 feet into tonight. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-151500-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1500Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 30 knots with Gale Gusts to 35 knots
  through mid morning. Northeast to north winds to 30 knots into
  tonight. 

* WAVES: 9 to 11 feet this morning. Waves will diminish to 5 to 7
  feet tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

070 
WHUS73 KMKX 151441
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
941 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

LMZ644>646-152245-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0041.180415T1500Z-180417T1800Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
941 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect until 1 PM CDT Tuesday.
The Gale Warning will expire at 10 AM CDT this morning. 

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 25 knots with Gale Gusts to 35 knots
  through mid morning. Northeast to north winds to 15 to 20 knots
  with gusts of 25 to 30 knots through Tuesday morning. There
  could be a brief lull in winds late evening into early tonight. 

* WAVES: 9 to 11 feet this morning. Waves will diminish to 5 to
  7 feet tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-151800-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
941 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 30 knots with Gale gusts to 35 knots 
  this morning. Northeast to north wind gusts to 30 knots into 
  tonight. 

* WAVES: 9 to 11 feet into through afternoon, subsiding to 5 to 8
  feet this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

504 
WHUS73 KMKX 151756
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...

LMZ643-160200-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180415T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0042.180415T1800Z-180417T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
1256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect until 1 PM CDT Tuesday.
The Gale Warning will expire at 1 PM CDT this afternoon. 

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 30 knots with a few Gale gusts to 35
  knots this afternoon. Northeast to north wind gusts to 30 knots
  into tonight. 

* WAVES: 8 to 11 feet through afternoon, subsiding to 4 to 8 feet
  tonight.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-160200-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-180417T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0042.180415T1800Z-180417T1800Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect until 1 PM CDT Tuesday.

* WINDS: Northeast winds to 25 knots with Gale Gusts to 35 knots 
  through mid morning. Northeast to north winds to 15 to 20 
  knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots through Tuesday morning. 
  There could be a brief lull in winds late evening into early 
  tonight. 

* WAVES: 7 to 9 feet this afternoon, diminishing to 3 to 6 feet 
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1259 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.UPDATE...

Cancelled the dense fog advisory earlier this morning, with
greatly improved visibilities. Adjusted temperatures upward in the
far southeast and downward in the northwest to account for recent
trends. Otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus with bases around 1
to 2 kft will persist along and north of Milwaukee and Madison
this afternoon, as high clouds overspread the entire area. Cloud
bases may rise for a time early this evening, but will lower
overnight, and should be near or below 1 kft by early tomorrow
morning. Rain showers will develop after 10 PM, and persist at
times into Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible, but not
enough confidence to include this in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1006 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018)

UPDATE...

..Period of impactful weather ahead for tonight through the
Weekend...

The primary near-term concern is low clouds and fog pushing
southwest into the area this morning. Pulled the trigger on a
dense fog advisory in the north, where several locations reported
visibilities of 1/4 mile or less. Visibilities are improving
though as low-level mixing rapidly increases. Already seeing gusts
to around 20 knots within the surface layer south of this area,
which should further help to scatter out the low cloud deck with
time.

Will be assessing temperature trends shortly, as some warming
above the current forecast highs is possible before winds turn
onshore this afternoon.

A long duration impactful weather event will begin tonight and
last through the weekend. The anticipated hazards include heavy
rainfall (leading to potential river flooding), a threat of
freezing rain (especially across our north on Saturday), and even
accumulating snow (more likely Saturday night into Sunday). Will
be evaluating new model data this morning to assess all of these
hazards in more detail today.

MARINE...

Issued a Small Craft Advisory through noon today from Port
Washington south given wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. The next
period of gusty winds and higher waves will begin on Friday night
and continue into the weekend. Gale force gusts are possible are
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today and tonight. Fog
ending this morning followed by a mild day, then rain returns
tonight.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Areas of dense fog and stratus under 1 kft
will dissipate through the morning as low pressure moves by and
wly winds develop. Areas of MVFR Cigs will still be possible
later this morning into the early afternoon due to cumulus or
stratocumulus developing via daytime heating. The better chances
for MVFR Cigs would be north of Madison and Milwaukee. Any MVFR
Cigs that do occur will rise to 3.5-4.0 kft during the afternoon.

LLWS will be possible through 14z today due to a wswly 50 kt LLJ.

Showers will then develop tonight with Cigs of 1-3 kft developing
around midnight but falling below 1 kft through the early morning
hours. MVFR Vsbys may occur with the rain at times.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 408 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is medium...

Low pressure over sw WI will track to central Lake MI later this
morning. Increasing sly flow is aiding the decrease of low stratus
and fog nwd. A weak and dry cold frontal passage will shift the
winds to wly shortly after 12z. A mild airmass already in place
and some sunshine expected, will boost temps to lower to middle
60s from Madison to Milwaukee and swd, with 50s to the north.

A weak sfc ridge will settle over Lake MI this afternoon with a
lake breeze to develop. Synoptically, the winds over all of S WI
will become ely as well due to cyclogenesis over the central high
plains. The low will move into the Middle MO River Valley tnt with
a strong stationary front extending ewd across N IL. Sly flow
over the front into S WI will provide warm, moist advection and
frontogenesis tonight. Showers are expected by middle to late
evening in the south, reaching central WI toward midnight or
afterward. Expected rainfall tonight ranges from 0.10-0.20 inches.

Friday and Friday night - Confidence...Medium
Sustained southerly 850 millibar flow impinging on nearly
east/west oriented baroclinic zone will result in rounds of rain,
heavy at times. 200-330 millibar jet dynamics will be at play as
well aiding in vertical motion field. Thermal field suggests
predominant precip type will be liquid however some concern for
freezing rain evolves later Friday night in the northern cwa as
the sustained surface/925 wind field reinforces colder temps to
become concerned in the far north. Have very high pops with decent
qpf numbers with high theta-e air streaming northward into a
region where vertical motion will be prolonged and efficient.

Saturday and Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
This is a period of concern as low level thermal regime as
potential exists for some ice accumulation. The elevated warm
layer lingers is pronounced across the area. However the
surface/925 temps remain cold with a strong northeast wind field
in this layer. The 2 meter temps show a milder solution on the GFS
however the NAM and ECMWF show a colder and more worrisome
scenario for our area. Potential is higher for freezing rain in
the latter case. WPC shows 0.10 to 0.25 in of ice cwa wide and
hard to argue with that at this point. However still a few days
away here and details likely to change. It will all depend on
these surface temps. But suffice to say that some ice accumulation
is possible. The lake temps are still cold, but in the mid 30s to
around 40 so that would help keep lakeshore/some eastern locales
mild enough to lessen concern for ice there. At this time expect
much of the area to be at or above freezing for much of the day on
Saturday with increasing freezing rain potential Saturday evening
as boundary layer cools and elevated warm layer lingers. As the
night wears on the warm layer eases from northwest to southeast
with mixed precipitation in the southeast and more in the way of
snow showing up in the northwest half of the cwa.

Sunday and Sunday night - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 low lifts off to the northeast and will bring in cold
air advection changing any lingering mixed precipitation to snow.
The ECMWF, once the more robust solution qpf-wise shows less than
the GFS now. has trended more towards the GFS with respect to the
qpf numbers. So a few inches seem reasonable within the colder
side of this system.

Monday and Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Cold high pressure will bring drier conditions this period.
Cyclonic flow eases for Tuesday with an easing of the chilly low
level thermal trough.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Low
Another system is proggd to affect the area. The GFS shows a
glancing shot of some light rain while the ECMWF is indicating a
system that has a more southern track with rain and or snow a
possibility.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Areas of fog and stratus under 1 kft will
continue to move nwd through S WI this morning. Areas of MVFR Cigs
will be possible later this morning into the early afternoon due
to cumulus or stratocumulus developing via daytime heating. The
better chances for MVFR Cigs would be north of Madison and
Milwaukee. Any MVFR Cigs that do occur will rise to 3.5-4.0 kft
during the afternoon.

LLWS will be possible through 14z today due to a wswly 50 kt LLJ.

Showers will then develop tonight with Cigs of 1-3 kft developing
around midnight but falling below 1 kft through the early morning
hours. MVFR Vsbys may occur with the rain at times.

MARINE...As low pressure moves from sw WI to central Lake MI
through the morning, gusty swly winds will develop but may not
reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Will hold off on an advisory
at this time but will monitor wind gusts.

A persistent period of brisk and gusty nely winds and high waves
will then develop on Fri and last through the weekend. The winds
may reach gale force Fri nt and remain possible through the
weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LMZ644>646.

&&

Update...SPM
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Gehring

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1013 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131515-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1013 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

A long duration rainfall is setting up for this weekend. Total
rainfall could be between 2 and 3 inches. This may cause some
rivers to rise and potentially approach flood stage later in the
weekend.

Accumulating snowfall is possible Saturday night through Sunday
night.

There is also the potential for some freezing rain from late
Saturday into Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-131515-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1013 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A small craft advisory is in effect through 1 pm for gusty
southwest winds.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

Higher winds and waves are likely later Friday through Monday as
strong low pressure slowly moves through the region. Gale force
gusts are possible.

www.weather.gov/mkx