Alert archive / Oregon / Winter Storm Warnings in 2018

Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Medford, OR

November 21, 20185 counties in Oregon; Siskiyou County, California

NWS Medford, OR issued this winter storm warning at Nov 21, 2018, 2:34 PM PST for 5 counties in Oregon; Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Nov 22, 2018, 10:00 AM PST. It was in force for 23 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 21, 2018, 2:34 PM PST (22:34 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 22, 2018, 10:00 AM PST
Expired
Nov 23, 2018, 9:00 AM PST
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Medford, OR

Counties Siskiyou County, CA, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR

The radar

The Medford radar (KMAX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 22, 10:06 AM PSTSNOW 46 Ssw Diamond Lake, OR4 INCHES OF ROADSIDE SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 230 . SLUSH ON ROAD SURFACE.
Nov 22, 3:20 PM PSTHEAVY SNOW 67 E Union Creek, OROBSERVED AT MILEPOST 65 ON HIGHWAY 62. 6 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD.
Nov 22, 3:20 PM PSTSNOW 68 Sse Diamond Lake, ORCORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 8 SSE DIAMOND LAKE. SNOW WAS OBSERVED NEAR MILE MARKER 98 ON HIGHWAY 138, NOT IN THE SNOW ZONE FROM MILEPOSTS 58 TO MILEPOST 100.
Nov 22, 3:20 PM PSTSNOW 68 Sse Diamond Lake, OROBSERVED BETWEEN MILEPOSTS 58 TO 100 ON HIGHWAY 138. 6 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD.
Nov 22, 3:26 PM PSTHEAVY SNOW 97 Wnw Siskiyou Summit, OROBSERVED AT MILEPOST 7.5 ON MT ASHLAND RD. STILL SNOWING. 9 INCHES OF ROADSIDE SNOW.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2018-11-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2018-11-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 155 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2131 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
298 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

868 
WWUS46 KMFR 212234
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

ORZ030-031-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...In the warning area...snow and blowing snow expected with
  wind gusts to 60 mph possible. Localized heavy snow and white
  out conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches. In the advisory
  area...total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with snow and
  blowing snow. Gusts to 45 mph possible.

* WHERE...Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake
  County and Central and Eastern Lake County. Locations in the
  warning area include areas above about 5500 feet including
  Winter Rim and Warner Pass. Locations in the advisory area
  include Modoc Point, Chemult, and some stretches of highway 140
  between Klamath Falls and Lakeview.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 
  AM PST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 AM 
  Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ027-028-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...In the warning area...heavy snow and blowing snow
  expected above 5500 feet with total snow accumulations of 12 to
  18 inches, and localized amounts up to 23 inches near Crater
  Lake. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph will create blowing and drifting
  snow and poor visibility. In the advisory area above 4500 feet,
  total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with localized 
  amounts up to 16 inches.

* WHERE...South Central Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains and
  Southern Oregon Cascades. Locations in the warning area include
  Crater Lake and Highway 62 near Crater Lake. Locations in the 
  advisory area include highway 140 at Lake of the Woods, Crescent
  Lake, and the east side of Willamette Pass. 

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 
  AM PST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 AM 
  Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to 
  impossible. Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 20 
  inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute on Thursday. Damage to 
  trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for significant 
  reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ082-083-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 3
  feet on the higher areas of Mt. Shasta. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  will create blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

* WHERE...South Central Siskiyou County and North Central and 
  Southeast Siskiyou County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to 
  impossible, including during the evening commute on Thursday. 
  Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ085-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Modoc County-
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are
  expected. Wind gusts to 45 mph will create blowing and drifting
  snow and poor visibility.

* WHERE...Modoc County generally above 5500 feet.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Damage 
  to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ029-221200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Klamath Basin-
234 PM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Klamath Basin.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Tree 
  branches could fall. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and
  limited visibilities.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
6 follow-up statements
353 
WWUS46 KMFR 221130
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

ORZ030-031-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
   TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
   MORNING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...In the warning area...snow and blowing snow expected 
  with wind gusts to 60 mph possible. Localized heavy snow and 
  white out conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 
  to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches. In the 
  advisory area...total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with 
  snow and blowing snow. Gusts to 45 mph possible.

* WHERE...Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake 
  County and Central and Eastern Lake County. Locations in the 
  warning area include areas above about 5500 feet including 
  Winter Rim and Warner Pass. Locations in the advisory area 
  include Modoc Point, Chemult, and some stretches of highway 
  140 between Klamath Falls and Lakeview.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 
  AM PST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 AM 
  Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ027-028-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
   TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
   MORNING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...In the warning area...heavy snow and blowing snow 
  expected above 5500 feet with total snow accumulations of 12 
  to 18 inches, and localized amounts up to 23 inches near 
  Crater Lake. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph will create blowing and 
  drifting snow and poor visibility. In the advisory area above 
  4500 feet, total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with 
  localized amounts up to 16 inches.

* WHERE...South Central Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains 
  and Southern Oregon Cascades. Locations in the warning area 
  include Crater Lake and Highway 62 near Crater Lake. Locations 
  in the advisory area include highway 140 at Lake of the Woods, 
  Crescent Lake, and the east side of Willamette Pass.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 
  AM PST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 10 AM 
  Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to 
  impossible. Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
   TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 
  20 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County above 4500 feet.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute on Thursday. Damage to 
  trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for significant 
  reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* See http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ082-083-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
   TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 
  3 feet on the higher areas of Mt. Shasta. Gusts of 45 to 55 
  mph will create blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

* WHERE...South Central Siskiyou County and North Central and 
  Southeast Siskiyou County above 5000 feet.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to 
  impossible, including during the evening commute on Thursday. 
  Damage to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* See http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ085-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Modoc County-
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
   MORNING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 
  12 inches, are expected. Wind gusts to 45 mph will create 
  blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

* WHERE...Modoc County generally above 5500 feet.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Damage 
  to trees and power lines is likely. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ029-230000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.181122T1800Z-181123T1200Z/
Klamath Basin-
330 AM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
   MORNING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Klamath Basin.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Tree 
  branches could fall. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
879 
WWUS46 KMFR 222315
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

ORZ030-031-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...In the warning area...snow and blowing snow expected with
  wind gusts to 60 mph possible. Localized heavy snow and white
  out conditions possible. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches. In the advisory
  area...additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with snow
  and blowing snow. Gusts to 45 mph possible.

* WHERE...Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake 
  County and Central and Eastern Lake County. Locations in the 
  warning area include areas above about 5500 feet including 
  Winter Rim and Warner Pass. Locations in the advisory area 
  include Modoc Point, Chemult, and some stretches of highway 
  140 between Klamath Falls and Lakeview.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM PST Friday. For
  the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority
  of the snow will occur through 8 PM PST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, mainly
  during this evening. Damage to trees and power lines is likely.
  Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ027-028-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...In the warning area...heavy snow and blowing snow above 
  5500 feet, with additional snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches.
  In the advisory area above 4500 feet, additional snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...South Central Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains 
  and Southern Oregon Cascades. Locations in the warning area 
  include Crater Lake and Highway 62 near Crater Lake. Locations 
  in the advisory area include highway 140 at Lake of the Woods, 
  Crescent Lake, and the east side of Willamette Pass.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM PST Friday. For
  the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority
  of the snow will occur through 8 PM PST this evening. Snow
  levels will rise as the next batch of moderate to heavy
  precipitation arrives early Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Damage to trees and 
  power lines is likely. Be prepared for significant reductions 
  in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ080-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of 2 to
  4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Western Siskiyou County, above 4500 feet.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority of the snow will occur
  through 6 PM PST this evening. Snow levels will rise as the next
  batch of moderate to heavy precipitation arrives early Friday
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Damage to trees and 
  power lines is likely. Be prepared for significant reductions 
  in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ082-083-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 5000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 2 
  feet on the higher areas of Mt. Shasta. Gusts of 45 to 55 
  mph will create blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

* WHERE...South Central Siskiyou County and North Central and 
  Southeast Siskiyou County above 5000 feet.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority of the snow and the
  strongest winds will occur through 7 PM PST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Damage to trees and 
  power lines is likely. Be prepared for significant reductions 
  in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

CAZ085-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Modoc County-
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Additional wet snow
  accumulations of up to 2 inches, with localized amounts up to 8
  inches, are expected. Wind gusts to 45 mph will create blowing 
  and drifting snow and poor visibility. 

* WHERE...Modoc County, above 5500 feet.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority of the snow will occur
  between 4 PM and 10 PM PST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Tree branches could 
  fall. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

ORZ029-231200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Klamath Basin-
315 PM PST Thu Nov 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to 2 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Klamath Basin. A snow level around 5000 feet will fall
  to around 4500 feet this evening with snow at foothill locations
  and near Bly.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Friday. A majority of the snow will occur
  through 7 PM PST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Tree branches could 
  fall. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
850 
WWUS46 KMFR 231142
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

ORZ030-031-231400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1400Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to two
  inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches, in the advisory
  area are expected. 

* WHERE...Highway 97 to include Chemult.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 AM PST early 
  this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See weather.gov/medford/cams for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

CAZ080-231245-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Western Siskiyou County-
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING ABOVE 4500 FEET...

Snow levels are rising to above 6000 feet today.

$$

CAZ082-083-231245-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING ABOVE 5000 FEET...

Snow levels are rising to above 6000 feet today.

$$

ORZ029-231245-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Klamath Basin-
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow levels are rising to above 6000 feet today.

$$

ORZ027-028-231400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1400Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches in the warning area are expected before snow levels rise
  to above 6000 feet.

* WHERE...Mainly at elevations from Diamond Lake and higher...to
  include Crater Lake.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST early this morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  occurring and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

CAZ085-231245-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1200Z/
Modoc County-
342 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snow levels are rising to above 6000 feet today. 

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
202 
WWUS46 KMFR 231152
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
352 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

ORZ027-028-231400-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1400Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
352 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING ABOVE 5500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 5500 feet. Wet snow above 4500 feet. 
  Above 5500 feet, additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches are expected. Above 4500 feet, additional wet snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lake of the Woods at Highway 140...Diamond Lake
  area...Crater Lake. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST early this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Snow
  levels should rise above 6000 feet later this morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  occurring and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ030-031-231400-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1400Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
352 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to two
  inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches, in the advisory
  area are expected. 

* WHERE...Highway 97 north of Sand Creek to include Chemult.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 AM PST early 
  this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow levels should rise above 6000 feet later this
  morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See weather.gov/medford/cams for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
173 
WWUS46 KMFR 231306
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
506 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

ORZ027-028-231700-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
506 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
MORNING ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow above 5500 feet. Wet snow above 4500 feet.
  Above 5500 feet, additional wet snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches are expected. Above 4500 feet, additional wet snow
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Dead Indian Memorial Highway...Highway 140 at Lake of
  the Woods...Diamond Lake area...Crater Lake. 

* WHEN...Until 9 AM PST this morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute. Tree branches could fall.
  Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Snow levels should rise to 6000 feet later this morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  occurring and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ030-031-231700-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the city of Chemult
506 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to 2 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Highway 97 from Sand Creek northward to include 
  Chemult...Bly Mountain and Quartz Mountain on Highway 140.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM PST this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow levels should rise above 6000 feet later this
  morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford
545 
WWUS46 KMFR 231659
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
859 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

ORZ027-028-231800-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, 
and Diamond Lake
859 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will expire
at 9 AM PST. Lingering light snow and mixed precipitation will 
taper off during the remainder of the morning while snow levels
rise from around 5000 feet to around 6000 feet.

$$

ORZ030-031-231800-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181123T1700Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the city of Chemult
859 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...

The Winter Weather Advisory will expire at 9 AM PST. Lingering 
light snow and mixed precipitation will taper off during the 
remainder of the morning while snow levels rise from around 5000 
feet to around 6000 feet.

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 21, 9:16 AM PST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 9:16 AM PST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
916 AM PST Wed Nov 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...KMAX-88D radar reveals rain progressing well
through the west side and latest observations reveal a quarter to
a half inch of rain has fallen across the coast region through 9
am. Very light and spotty amounts inland of I-5 so far with just a
dusting of snow above about 6000 feet at Crater Lake and Mt.
Ashland. The cold front will push across the Rogue Valley and
eastward between about 2 and 6 pm with an associated increase in
rain expected and lowering snow levels. The forecast has things
pretty well in hand and no major shifts in the forecast are
planned early on today. Thanksgiving wind event looks on track
with vigorous short wave moving into the Oregon coast and
associated surface low to track across Newport by noon or so.
Initial thoughts are that high wind watches will be upgraded to
warnings with some additional advisories possible. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION...For the 21/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will persist
through early this morning for most areas ahead of an incoming
front. Cigs will gradually lower to MVFR from west to east as the
front makes it's way inland later this morning. IFR conditions are
expected during periods of heavy rain, especially along the coast
and in the Umpqua Basin. Gusty south to southeast winds ahead of
the front will continue across the higher terrain, east of the
Cascades, the Shasta Valley and the southern end of the Rogue
Valley. These gusty winds will downslope off the Siskiyous,
maintaining VFR conditions in the Rogue Valley, including KMFR,
and likely holding off any precipitation until late this
afternoon. Winds will ease tonight, but another stronger front is
expected by early Thursday morning. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday 21 November 2018...Active
weather is expected through Saturday, with periods of heavy rain,
strong southerly winds and choppy wind driven seas combined with
moderate swell. The first in a series of fronts is moving through
the waters this morning, and southerly winds have increased in
response to this front. Seas will peak later this morning with
very steep hazardous seas expected mainly beyond 5 nm from shore,
and continued steep small craft advisory level conditions
elsewhere.

Another, stronger front is expected Thursday, and models continue to
show sustained gales developing over much of the waters. While we're
pretty confident in widespread gales with isolated areas of storm
force gusts, the latest model runs are showing a brief period of
possible sustained storm force winds developing in the coastal jet.
This is the first run to show this, so have decided to maintain the
watch for now and let the next shift see how the 12z model runs
handle this before upgrading. Regardless, conditions will be quite
hazardous Thursday morning and afternoon with very steep wind driven
seas of 14 to 16 feet peaking Thursday afternoon and evening.

Winds will diminish briefly Thursday night before another quick
moving system moves through the waters early Friday morning,
bringing another round of high-end small craft winds. Winds will
diminish thereafter through the weekend, but seas will remain
elevated through Saturday due to a mix of southwest and west-
northwest swell combined with wind chop. A break in the weather is
expected Saturday into Sunday, with gradually improving conditions
expected. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM PST Wed Nov 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in. A long wave trough axis will
move to 140W later today and southwest flow aloft is increasing
along the west coast. Short waves diving down the backside of the
trough will slow its progress. Those short waves will eject from
the trough and move onshore today into Friday. This will make for
a wet and occasionally windy pattern during this interval.

First up, a front that will move onshore today. Precipitation is
now starting along the coast, and will spread inland through
today. Most of the CWA will see significant, but not excessive,
precipitation from this system Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Given the low antecedent streamflows, flooding is not expected.

Winds have increased along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and
over the west side ridges. They will increase soon over the east
side and the Rogue Valley as well. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for portions of these areas.

As far as snow goes, snow levels will be generally near or above
pass level, with some snow accumulating in the mountains above
about 5500 feet. Snow levels will be a bit lower near Mount
Shasta, but still mostly above 4500 feet.

Today is going to be a big travel day and the winds and
precipitation will impact travelers. Slick roads will be an issue
as this is the first precipitation in quite a while and there
will be oil buildups on the roads.

Second up, the wave on Thursday will be the strongest of the
string, and it will be quickly followed by another Thursday night
into Friday. The associated front will move onshore late Thursday
morning, and Thursday will be a wet and windy day across the
area. The winds will be strongest at the coast and along Highway
101 as well as on Interstate 5 in the Shasta Valley late Wednesday
night through Thursday. The strong winds will spread to the east
side Thursday morning lasting through Thursday night, impacting
most of the roadways there. High Wind Watches are in effect for
the coast, the Shasta Valley, and the east side. Wind advisories
will likely be necessary over some of the remaining portions of
the CWA.

As far as precipitation goes, this will be the first big rainfall
event this fall for southern Oregon and northern California.
Rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches will be common along the coast with
local amounts higher than that in areas that typically have
orographic enhancement, like the Coast Range. The Mt. Shasta area
could see some moderate to heavy rainfall as well. The heaviest
rainfall rates will occur during the day Thursday. There is
concern about precipitation on recent burn scars. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for the Klondike, Chetco Bar, Eclipse, and
Natchez burn scars for Thursday and Friday. Outside of those
areas, no flooding is expected other than minor high small stream
flows.

Several inches of snow will accumulate with the first storm
Thanksgiving Day, which could impact passes near Lake of the
Woods, but the heaviest snow will fall above 5000 feet. There will
be a surge in snow level up above 6000 feet late Thursday night
into Friday as the next storm moves onshore, but heavy snow could
continue up near Crater Lake. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 feet are
possible above 5500 feet through Friday night.

Long term discussion from the Tuesday afternoon AFD...Friday
Night through Tuesday...The Friday system will pass to the east
Friday night, and as a result, winds will taper off and
precipitation will diminish from west to east. By daybreak, some
showers may linger in the area, especially over the Cascades where
some light snow accumulations are possible. For the most part,
the region will be dry as upper level ridging builds in overhead.

An upper level impulse is expected to slide by to our north on
Sunday, but the bulk of the energy and moisture associated with the
system will remain well to our north. There is a possibility for some
rain and high mountain snow, particularly along the coast and into
the Umpqua Basin and Cascades, but amounts should remain light as
the front just grazes by the forecast area.

Until this point, the operational models and their respective
ensembles have been in fairly good agreement, but heading into early
next week, differences in timing, track, and strength of individual
systems make for a rather low confidence forecast. Guidance does
resolve another system arriving in the area Monday night or Tuesday,
and this could be another significant rain and wind producer. Have
kept precipitation chances high through this period as rain seems a
sure thing, but have kept winds modest in response to the wide
spread in guidance. Whatever the timing, the wet and active pattern
is expected to persist through next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for ORZ029>031.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.
     Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
     for ORZ022-024.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     ORZ021-022.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ026.

CA...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for CAZ084-085.
     Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
     for CAZ080.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
     Thursday for PZZ370.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 21, 1:27 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMFRJackson, Josephine3 hr
Nov 21, 2:06 PM PSTGale WarningMFR23 hr
Nov 21, 2:06 PM PSTHazardous Seas WarningMFR56 hr
Nov 21, 2:06 PM PSTStorm WarningMFR23 hr
Nov 21, 2:34 PM PSTWinter Weather AdvisoryMFRDouglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake42 hr
Nov 21, 3:29 PM PSTHigh Wind WarningMFRCoos, Curry, Douglas, Lake37 hr
Nov 21, 3:29 PM PSTWind AdvisoryMFRKlamath, Lake55 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Oregon, 2018Winter Storm Warnings in California, 2018Every winter storm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.