Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

HRRR and 12z NAMNEST showing a round of convection forming north
of I-40 in the Mississippi Delta early this afternoon when
convective temps of 86-87F are reached. Later a second round may
skirt across the northern counties tonight as a shortwave moves
into the Ozarks. Severe storms will be possible with each
round...along with 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts. Have increased
PoPs across the northern half of the CWA from noon through
midnight. All other forecast parameters are on track this morning.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

A warm and humid early summer weather pattern will prevail for
the upcoming week. For today, the Midsouth will remain under the
northwest periphery of a weak upper ridge centered over the
Southeast, exposed to weak west/southwest flow aloft. NAM Bufr
soundings depicted surface-based CAPE reaching 3000 J/KG by early
afternoon, accompanied by 850-500mb lapse rates near 7C/KM and
eroded convective inhibition.

Similar to Saturday, the "trigger" for storms may be a subtle
feature borne from upstream storms. Early morning HRRR runs
depict early afternoon storms developing over the delta of east
AR and northwest MS, ahead of a weak shortwave lifting out of the
Arklatex. Inverted-V type soundings suggest a microburst wind
threat and aforementioned steep midlevel lapse rates and CAPE will
be favorable for large hail. As is typical in a weak sheer summer
environment, storm movement and coverage will likely be driven by
mesoscale storm evolution. Slow-moving and/or merging storms may
lead to localized flash flooding, while nearby areas remain dry.
With loss of surface heating, storms should dissipate by
midevening.

Atmosphere will remain favorable for additional storms Monday and
Tuesday, as a weak midlevel wave lifts northwest out of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, weakening the upper ridge. 700mb temps
only prevail around 6-7C through Tuesday, but warm slightly as
the upper ridge amplifies midweek, ahead of height falls over the
western US. Convective temps nonetheless will be attainable in
the mid to late week periods, with scattered storms favoring the
afternoon hours in absence of deep layer shear.

Looking to next weekend, the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models depict a
northern branch trof dropping into the middle and upper MS River
valley, phasing with a southern branch upper low lifting north
from the Gulf of Mexico. While the details have yet to settle out,
the consensus points toward slightly cooler and more rainy
conditions next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION.../18z TAFs/

VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals outside of
thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR vsbys are expected with on station
thunderstorms. Convective coverage should become numerous this
afternoon and evening, therefore have included tempos for
thunderstorms at all locations. Convection should diminish by mid
evening with vsbys improving back to VFR.

Convective chances should again increase late tonight into Monday
morning in association with a shortwave lifting to the northwest
of our area. The best potential should be near KJBR, where tempos
have again been included. Vicinity thunder has been added to KMEM
and KMKL for this time period.

Additional convection can be expected later Monday along residual
outflow boundaries. Coverage is still uncertain therefore
maintained vicinity mention for now along with VFR cigs/vsbys.
This will be refined in later forecasts once confidence in
coverage and timing increases.

Winds should remain light and variable, outside of thunderstorms,
through the period. Severe winds and hail cannot be ruled out this
afternoon through mid evening with the most intense storms.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211845-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1134 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A slight and marginal risk for severe storms are expected this
afternoon and this evening across a large portion of the Midsouth.
Damaging winds...large hail and locally heavy rainfall will all
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered strong and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              36.08N 91.30W
05/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             BLACK ROCK              36.11N 91.11W
05/20/2018  M1.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL RANGED DIME SIZE TO GOLFBALL.

&&

JAB