Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Lake Charles, LA

666 
WGUS74 KLCH 080042
FFSLCH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
642 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

TXC245-361-080051-
/O.EXP.KLCH.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-181108T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Orange TX-
642 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CST...

Flood waters are receding. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat unless heavy rain redevelops. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2997 9401 3006 9401 3004 9373 3000 9377
      2999 9379 3000 9379 2998 9383 2999 9386
      2997 9384 2997 9386 2996 9386 2993 9387
      2992 9389

$$

Tingler

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
450 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT continuing to make slow but steady progress this afternoon,
and is just now entering the TX Lakes region into Central LA
based on SFC OBS and Visible satellite imagery. Boundary is
expected to continue SWD this evening, reaching near the coast by
around midnight. SCTD/NMRS convection is possible through the
evening, with coverage expected to decrease (though not completely
disappear) thereafter. Some potential for patchy fog during the
evening and overnight hours, primarily I-10 south through
midnight, then a little closer to the coast. Per shallow nature of
the front, very low stratus and BR is likely in the post-frontal
airmass. Temperatures by morning will be around 10 degrees cooler
than this morning, though it will still be quite humid.

The front is expected to continue SWD into the NW Gulf waters THU
morning, but will subsequently stall out roughly from CRP to PTN
within the deep layer W-E oriented flow. Perturbations in this
westerly flow aloft along with elevated MSTR/instability will keep
a risk of isolated/scattered convection in the forecast, with the
area otherwise shrouded in post-frontal cloud cover amid generally
mild afternoon temperatures.

Upper trof digging into the ERN CONUS THU night into FRI will
both sharpen the front and aid in driving it farther offshore, but
also result in increasing rain chances and the arrival of a much
cooler airmass. A brief reprieve in rain expected on SAT, with
rain chances increasing again SAT night into SUN as a shearing out
shortwave ejects east across the SRN Plains. Good rain chances
continue SUN night into MON as a deep upper trof digs into the
CENT/ERN CONUS. A strong cold front is expected late MON into TUE,
which will finally dry us out and could yield our first light
freeze for northern parts of the area.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A light onshore flow will continue this evening ahead of a slow
moving frontal boundary sagging into the area. Patchy fog is
possible over the nearshore Gulf waters and coastal lakes and
bays, with the risk of fog decreasing over the latter after
midnight as the front is forecast to reach near the coast by
that time. The front will then continue slowly south into the
Gulf waters where it is expected to stall out on Thursday. Strong
high pressure building into Southern Plains will finally drive
the front out of the area Thursday night into Friday, with a
strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Elevated offshore
flow will continue through the weekend as a reinforcing high
traverses Eastern U.S., with offshore flow becoming strong again
early next week as a robust surface high drops into the Plains.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  63  49  55 /  40  40  60  70
LCH  64  72  55  58 /  70  30  60  80
LFT  65  74  56  58 /  70  30  50  80
BPT  66  72  55  59 /  50  30  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
422 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
081030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
422 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Areas of fog, possibly dense, will continue through the early
morning hours before dissipating by around 10 AM. Isolated to
scattered showers will increase in coverage through the morning
with scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.
Some of these storms will have the potential to produce frequent
cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Scattered showers will move inland off the gulf of Mexico through
much of the day Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

A stronger cold front will approach and move through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning accompanied by widespread
showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated with this system, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours.

Dry conditions will prevail Friday afternoon through Saturday
with precipitation chances returning late Saturday into Sunday as
a weak upper disturbance moves across the northern gulf. This will
be followed by another strong cold front swinging through the
area late Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-081030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
422 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Areas of fog, possibly dense, will continue across the nearshore
waters before dissipating by around 10 AM. Isolated to scattered
showers will increase in coverage through the morning with
scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Some of
these storms will have the potential to produce frequent cloud to
ground lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Scattered showers will move inland off the gulf of Mexico through
much of the day Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

A stronger cold front will approach and move through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning accompanied by widespread
showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated with this system, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours. Strong offshore flow will
develop in the wake of this front with gusts to gale force
possible along with seas of 8 - 10 feet.

Dry conditions will prevail Friday afternoon through Saturday
with precipitation chances returning late Saturday into Sunday as
a weak upper disturbance moves across the northern gulf. This will
be followed by another strong cold front swinging through the
area late Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1243 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

LAZ041-071915-
Calcasieu-
1243 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISH...

At 1243 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Holmwood, or 8
miles west of Hayes, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holmwood and Bell City.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3011 9313 3015 9312 3019 9300 3016 9300
      3016 9294 3011 9293 3008 9295 3008 9300
      3007 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 257DEG 15KT 3011 9307

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
404 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

LAZ029-072245-
Avoyelles LA-
404 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISH
UNTIL 445 PM CST...

At 404 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Simmesport, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Simmesport, Cottonport, Plaucheville, Dupont, Big Bend and Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 9170 3109 9172 3108 9171 3107 9171
      3105 9172 3099 9178 3098 9180 3091 9180
      3085 9196 3095 9211 3112 9182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 246DEG 14KT 3097 9187

Tingler