Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Northern Indiana

818 
WGUS73 KIWX 010124
FFSIWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

INC169-010330-
/O.CON.KIWX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180801T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wabash IN-
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTY...

At 920 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain was diminishing 
across the warned area but up to four inches of rain may have 
fallen. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
South side of Wabash, Richvalley, and rural areas just north of 
Mississinewa Reservoir.  

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is 
harder to recognize the dangers of flooding and washed out roads.


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8594 4079 8594 4080 8590 4079 8583
      4076 8579 4071 8584 4069 8587

$$

NWS

871 
WGUS53 KIWX 010241
FFWIWX
INC169-010730-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180801T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana  has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Wabash County in north central Indiana...

* Until 330 AM EDT.

* At 1040 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area with up to 4 inches of rainfall occurring this 
  evening. Flash flooding is already occurring. Roads are reported 
  flooded along Millcreek near 400 S and Cooper Road. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Wabash and Richvalley. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8594 4079 8594 4080 8590 4079 8583
      4076 8579 4071 8584 4069 8587

$$

PBM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Rain will continue through the evening hours with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Isolated heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible east of Interstate 69. Quieter weather is anticipated for
the rest of the week with heat and humidity building by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Main focus of forecast is on precip/thunder chances this
evening and overnight. Closed mid/upper level circulation will begin
to open and lift NE as 100+ kt upper level jet streak rounds the
base of the trough and lifts into the eastern Great Lakes. This will
send surface low pressure tracking through Ohio...just SE of our
CWA. Strong 850-700mb deformation/fgen signal just NW of this
surface low track. Meanwhile...12Z KILN soundings indicates a very
moist environment with PW values of 1.74 inches and saturation
throughout the column with moist adiabatic lapse rates. 850-700mb
specific humidities also climb above 9 g/kg in most of our eastern
CWA this evening. Given degree of moisture and ascent with lifting
vort max...raised PoP's and QPF for the evening. Best chances for
heavy rain will be along/east of I-69 but most of the area will
likely see at least some shower activity as cold pool aloft moves
overhead and supports some (very marginal) convective instability.
Some locations in our east may end up with around an inch or more
and that could lead to some minor ponding in typical low-lying areas
but don't expect any substantial flood threat. Still anticipate
severe risk to be low as well with only a few hundred J/kg of low
density CAPE and a relative warm layer around 700-800mb on most
forecast soundings. Deep layer speed and directional shear is
obviously quite high but wind speeds in the lower levels are weak.
An isolated wet microburst not entirely impossible east of I-69 but
the threat appears low. Did receive one public report of a funnel
cloud with cell north of Defiance around 18Z. Degree of moisture and
modest 0-1km shear/helicity over Ohio could support some weak and
isolated rotation in the stronger cells through the early evening.
Bulk of the precip should exit by around 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Rest of the forecast is relatively quiet. Some residual showers
possible early Wed before trough axis passes but steadily rising
heights and subsidence should lead to primarily dry conditions late
Wed through Thu. Weak shortwave crosses the Great Lakes late Thu/Fri
but lack of substantial forcing warrants maintaining just low chance
PoP in the NW zones.

Much warmer and more humid conditions return by the weekend as flow
becomes more zonal and thermal ridge is advected east. Highs around
90F possible with dewpoints approaching the low 70s. A stray
afternoon shower/storm is possible but most of the area likely to
remain dry most of the time. Slightly better chances by early/middle
part of next week based on the latest deterministic runs showing
another trough crossing the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

An upper low near St Louis will lift northeast to northern Indiana
during the TAF period. Areas of IFR and MVFR were ahead of this
system, especially in the vicinity of the areas of rain.
Conditions were really fluxuating at the terminals with FWA IFR,
VFR, and MVFR during the past hour. Given the this system lifting
northeast into the area and given the abundance of clouds with
moisture, have included IFR conditions at FWA tonight with mainly
VFR at SBN. Conditions should improve late in the TAF period at
FWA as upper low opens up and lifts north out of the area by early
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Skipper

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

INZ007-009-018-026-027-033-034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-011900-
Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Wells-Adams-Blackford-Jay-Branch-Hillsdale-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today into tonight. A few of
these storms may produce heavy rain and isolated gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032-MIZ077>079-011900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-
Huntington-Grant-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 /155 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today into tonight. Severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-011900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low chance for an afternoon thunderstorm on Wednesday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.