Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Lincoln, IL

003 
WGUS73 KILX 121458
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
958 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

ILC025-049-121506-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180612T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay-Effingham-
958 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CLAY AND EFFINGHAM COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...

Rainfall has come to an end and the water has stopped rising. Many 
area roads remain flooded. This product has been replaced by an 
Areal Flood Warning through 645 PM. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3861 8870 3891 8870 3891 8881 3922 8880
      3922 8847 3917 8847 3917 8836 3886 8836
      3884 8826 3873 8826 3873 8829 3866 8827
      3863 8830 3860 8826

$$

HJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
405 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Expanded the flash flood watch further north to include Clark,
Edgar, Douglas and Macon counties, and still goes until 1 pm cdt.
A warm front was over central IL/IN near I-72 and helping to
produce an area of showers and thunderstorms over parts of central
and southeast IL, mainly from Macomb to Springfield and Litchfield
east, and tracking slowly ESE. Precipitable water values were 1.5
to 2 inches over CWA this morning, highest over southeast IL. This
was giving some heavy rains and radar estimated 2-5 inches from
I-72 south with locally 4-7 inches from Taylorville to Mattoon
south since Sunday. HRRR model shows this convection becoming more
widely scattered during mid to late morning. But isolated to
scattered convection redevelop this afternoon as airmass gets more
unstable again. SPC day1 outlook has marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening south of I-72.
Some thunderstorms could also have heavy rains and frequent
lightning. Highs today mostly in the mid 80s, with some upper 80s
from Springfield sw where heat indices peak in the mid 90s.

A weak cold front to push southeast into the IL river valley later
this evening and thru rest of central IL overnight, and thru
southeast IL early Wed morning. Still some timing differences
between models with frontal passage, and the 00Z models overall
have trended a bit slower. Will continue at least 20-40% chance
of convection tonight, highest pops in eastern/southeast IL. Lows
in the upper 60s to near 70F tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Isolated convection could linger in far southeast IL Wed morning,
otherwise dry and warm conditions expected on Wed with highs in
the mid 80s. Drier air advects into central IL during Wed as
dewpoints drop into the 50s, while still humid in southeast IL
with dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s/lower 70s most of the day.
Less humid air arrives in southeast IL Wed night as dewpoints slip
into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Lows Wed night in the lower 60s,
with some upper 50s possible north of I-74. 00Z models have
trended drier on Thu with IL being influenced by weak high
pressure moving over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio river valley.
Highs in the mid 80s again with fairly comfortable dewpoints in
the upper 50s/lower 60s across CWA.

A strong upper level ridge to build into IL late this week with
590 dm 500 mb high near MO and mid MS river valley by Saturday,
bringing a heat wave to area for Father's day weekend. Have
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible overnight Thu night
into Friday but most areas should stay dry, and getting very warm
and more humid Friday. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90F Friday
with afternoon heat indices peaking from 92-98F. Dry, hot and
humid conditions expected Sat/Sun with highs in the low to mid 90s
and afternoon heat indices peaking from 97-104F, and may flirt
with heat advisory criteria of 105F. Still hot and humid on Monday
with highs in the lower 90s and afternoon heat index of 97-102F.
Upper level ridge beginning to break down early next work week
with chances of showers/thunderstorms returning from Monday
afternoon on. Highs still in the upper 80s to near 90F next
Tuesday with chances of showers/thunderstorms with more MCS
activity possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

A warm front lifting northward into central IL overnight will
shift ENE winds less than 10 kts to SE and eventually SSW by mid
Tue morning. Weak lift along frontal boundary and moist airmass
will also develop scattered showers and thunderstorms, which
recently have started to appear near PIA and CMI. IFR to MVFR
conditions will be possible overnight into early Tue morning with
this convection along with some low clouds and fog too. Daytime
heating to destabilize airmass again by Tue afternoon with
isolated showers and thunderstorms appearing, though coverage
appears too isolated to pinpoint down in the tafs. Winds to veer
SW at 6-12 kts during Tuesday and diminish to around 5 kts after
sunset Tue.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ047-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
430 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-131100-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Peoria-Schuyler-Stark-Tazewell-
Woodford-
430 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and early this evening
until sunset across the Illinois river valley. Severe storms are
not expected, though an isolated thunderstorm could have gusty
winds, small hail, locally heavy rains and frequent lightning
especially along and southeast of the Illinois river this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight Thursday night and
Friday. There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

Summerlike heat and humidity will return by the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices peaking around 100 degrees from Saturday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-048-131100-
Champaign-De Witt-Logan-McLean-Menard-Piatt-Vermilion-
430 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and this
evening across east central Illinois. Severe storms are not
expected, though an isolated thunderstorm could have gusty winds
and small hail, along with locally heavy rains and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight Thursday night into
Friday. There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

Summerlike heat and humidity will return by the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices peaking in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees from Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ047-049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-131100-
Cass-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Macon-Morgan-Moultrie-Richland-Sangamon-
Scott-Shelby-
430 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will occur today and tonight. Most areas
have received several inches of rain since Sunday, with isolated
amounts from 4 to 7 inches south of I-72. Any excessive rainfall
over saturated ground would rapidly result in runoff, increasing
the flash flood threat. There is a marginal risk of severe storms
this afternoon and early evening until sunset south of I-72, with
hail and damaging winds possible. Locally heavy rains and frequent
lightning will remain a risk too.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight Thursday night
into Friday. There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

Summerlike heat and humidity will return by the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices peaking from 98 to 104 degrees from
Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed south of I-72 from 2 to 8 pm
today.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
522 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST PEORIA             40.67N 89.55W
06/12/2018  M1.80 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NINETY MINUTE RAINFALL TOTAL AT WHOI

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEWTON                  38.99N 88.16W
06/11/2018  M3.19 INCH       JASPER             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
554 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DILLON                  40.47N 89.53W
06/12/2018  M2.30 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL THIS MORNING. FROM WMBD.

&&

BAK