Tornado Warning 16, NWS Wilmington, OH

508 
WWUS51 KILN 010204
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

OHC159-010215-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180801T0215Z/
Union OH-
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
    
At 1003 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near West Mansfield, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Byhalia, Somersville and Essex. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 8325 4049 8326 4037 8345 4043 8353
      4051 8348 4050 8342 4051 8332 4051 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 228DEG 13KT 4045 8344 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Hickman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Several waves of low pressure will ripple northeast along a
slow moving front that will push through the area on Wednesday.
This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until
weak high pressure builds in on Thursday. High temperatures will
remain below normal through Thursday, with warmer readings
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Amplified upper flow pattern with deep H5 trough over the mid ms
valley not making much headway with the deep Bermuda high on
one side and strong western ridge behind it. Weak southerly flow
will keep a moist environment over the region, along with some
weak low level shear with several surface to 925 lows rippling
along the warm frontal boundary and slowly pushing ne as the
trough eventually shears out and rides over the strong ridge to
the SE.

Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon and early
evening still highly dependent on instability, which for now is
confined to the far south with MUCAPE values of about 2k j/kg,
with 0-6km bulk shear in the 35-40kts range. Very weak low level
flow shear, with 150 m2/s2 SRH, but a much weaker 0-1 shear
scenario. Isolated strong to severe storms can't be ruled out,
and with the 925 low rotating along the Ohio/Indiana border as
its lifting north, storms are weakly rotating at this time.
Tornado potential is low, but not a zero threat.

As the area lifts further into the warm sector overnight the
upper trough begins to slacken a bit as it lifts north, but a
secondary and weaker ripple will push toward the region after
06z, allowing the potential for increased convection yet again
late tonight.

In addition, plenty of low level moisture will keep low clouds
present tonight. Overnight lows generally in the mid to upper
60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the deeper trough lifts away from the region, the secondary
weaker shortwave and associated secondary surface boundary pivots
through the area during the day on Wednesday, keeping showers
and thunderstorm potential in, especially the eastern forecast
area. Instability is expected to be marginal at best, so strong
storms unlikely.

With ample cloud cover temperatures on Wednesday to remain below
normal, topping out in the upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period begins with a large H5 ridge off the east coast. This places
the region in broad southerly flow, which allows embedded vort
maxes to ride north up through the Appalachians. Best PoPs
Thursday will be just to the east in the mountains, with the
forecast problem being how far west will the backedge be. This
scenario is complicated by a weak H5 s/w riding east in the nrn
stream across the wrn Great Lakes. Discarded the wet GFS
solution and went with ECMWF/NAM solution with keeps things dry
west of I-71 and low chance poPs to the se.

By Friday, the s/w is a little farther east and starts to interact
with the deeper moisture coming up the west side of the ridge. This
will pull the chance of pcpn a little farther back to the west.

Over the weekend, the ridge flattens allowing the nrn stream to run
through the Great Lakes. Can't rule out a chance of convection each
afternoon in this type of summer like pattern, so kept 20 to 30 PoPs
in the forecast for the weekend. The same pattern holds into Monday.
By Tuesday, the stronger s/w begins to work into the region. The GFS
is the strongest with this feature, with the other Models a little
weaker. Continued with slight chance PoPs that far out.

Slightly below normal highs in the lower 80s are expected Thursday
under the weakening upper trough. Highs in the mid and 80s should be
reached for Friday through Monday. By Tuesday highs should reach,
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure located over southwest Ohio this evening will
move northeast toward southern Ontario tonight. As this occurs,
a weak boundary trailing the low will settle into our region.
Scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, will be near the
northern terminals early on, then we should see a respite. An
embedded disturbance rounding the base of a mid level trough
axis to our west may bring some precipitation to the region
late tonight, but this remain mainly southeast of the terminals.
Otherwise, models suggest that low level moisture near and to
the west of the boundary will result in stratus/stratocumulus
development. We should see ceilings lower into the MVFR
category, and then IFR category for most sites toward 12Z.
Visibilities will likely drop into the MVFR category.

On Wednesday, weak surface boundary will remain in the region
while aforementioned embedded disturbance moves northeast.
Diurnal heating will allow ceilings to rebound back to VFR
between 18Z and 20Z. Diurnal heating may also result in a chance
of a shower/storm near the terminals. Any likelihood of precipitation
is expected to remain east/southeast of KCMH/KLCK based on
latest model guidance.

OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
423 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-054>056-062>065-071>074-077>082-088-
012030-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Delaware-Madison-Franklin OH-
Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
423 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio,
Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

If some breaks develop in the clouds allowing for heating this
afternoon, then there is the potential for strong thunderstorms to
develop. The main threat from these storms would be straight line
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-
070-012030-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-
Montgomery-Butler-
423 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

If some breaks develop in the clouds allowing for heating this
afternoon, then there is the potential for strong thunderstorms to
develop. The main threat from these storms would be straight line
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.