Tornado Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
233 PM MDT Mon Jul 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure air occupies much of
the west. The ridge axis will run over NE MT tonight. A storm
system off the Pac-NW coast will ride over the ridge tonight,
affecting our area Tuesday with strong storms. Today and evening,
there is a warm front over the area with good lapse rates and
cape in place. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this
boundary, much of it in Saskatchewan. The areas of greatest
concern for strong storms is our northeast corner. The model
sounding shows vertical shear, and southeast surface flow to keep
the humidity higher in eastern zones.

Tuesday, our area has again been highlighted for Severe
Thunderstorms, this time Slight Risk. Again the strongest storms
may run east, north of the border, but produce storms mainly
across our northern zones, beginning in the late afternoon and
evening. Again, lapse rates and cape indicate a very unstable
environment. However in this case, the storm system brings a cold
front to set off storms.

Besides the storms, Tuesday is expected to be another hot day,
with highs around 100 again in some locations. With temperatures
again expected to rise into the high 90s and possibly triple
digits, heat risk again becomes an issue. Issued a Heat Advisory
for portions of the area. Also, with the expected wind and dry
conditions in Northern Valley & Phillips Counties, fire wx has
become a concern, especially based on the Drought Monitor
indicating Slight Drought conditions for those areas.  Templer

Previous Discussion for Wednesday and Beyond:
Temperatures cool about 15 degrees behind the front on Wednesday
as the upper trof moves through central Canada. Westerly flow
will keep the region dry, as temperatures slowly rebound.

By the end of the week, the next trof will drop into western
Canada. Cold front passage expected Friday night with
thunderstorms delayed until Saturday night, but confidence is not
high. Ebert

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

A warm front could produce isolated thunderstorms that could
impact the TAF sites intermittently this afternoon, and tonight.
Some storms may become severe.

Tuesday, after a hot day, a cold front pushes through the area to
produce thunderstorms, some possibly severe, and strong wind.

Wind: east-southeast 10-20G30kt, becoming 10kt or less after
midnight. Wind will shift to the NW behind the cold front Tuesday
evening

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...
McCone...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
721 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             PLENTYWOOD              48.76N 104.54W
07/09/2018  M1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORTING HAIL UP TO 1" IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
722 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLENTYWOOD              48.77N 104.55W
07/09/2018                   SHERIDAN           MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND TREES ARE DOWN IN
            THE TOWN OF PLENTYWOOD.

&&