Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Grand Forks, ND

940 
WWUS53 KFGF 292341
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNC077-300015-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180530T0015Z/
Lake of the Woods MN-
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY...

At 640 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Norris Camp, or
34 miles southeast of Roseau, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Lake of the Woods County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4851 9495 4853 9514 4857 9521 4871 9518
      4871 9509 4874 9509 4869 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 200DEG 20KT 4863 9507 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

AM/VG

159 
WWUS53 KFGF 292349
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNC077-292359-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180530T0015Z/
Lake of the Woods MN-
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.  However small hail is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4851 9495 4853 9514 4857 9521 4871 9518
      4871 9509 4874 9509 4869 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 200DEG 20KT 4878 9497 

$$

AM/VG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Weather impacts this afternoon and evening will be mainly across
the MN trees and lakes country. A plume of instability has
developed across this area with MLCAPE 1 to 2k J/kg ahead of
subtle shortwave. 0 to 6 km bulk shear values are on the light
side for organized severe with values ranging from 20 to 30kts per
mesoanalysis page and model guidance. Currently have a couple
strong storms and expecting this type of activity with a few
storms capable of reaching hail around an inch and own burst winds
up to 75mph to continue for the next few hours. Activity will
lift to the north northeast and exit the area this evening.

Another relatively warm early summer night with lows in the 60s.
The upper level low will move across the northern plains tomorrow
with showers and storms increasing in coverage into the noon hour.
Concern with the upper low at this time of year will be any sort
of clearing directly ahead of the upper forcing. So depending on
sky cover and position of bands of instability and near sfc layer
shear profile. There could be potential for mini supercells or
brief spin ups with any enhanced stretching within the early
stages of development. Similar to June 7th last year.

More widespread rainfall is expected across the Devils Lake basin
and northern valley to the north of the upper low. Elsewhere
scattered storms will once again be the predominate mode.
Generally more widespread amounts in the northeast ND and NW MN
with less to the south. Expecting a half to an inch with a tenth
to a half inch across SE ND.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

500 mb low will be transitioning from the Red River Valley north and
east and out of the area Wed night, leading to a period of drying
and upper ridging for Thu. This will be quickly followed by another
period of active weather however, as the pattern returns to SW flow
aloft by early Friday morning with a continuation of embedded
shortwaves bringing rain and thunder chances to the area for Friday
and Saturday. Another break in activity is expected Sunday through
early next week as zonal flow sets up aloft with a short wave ridge
over the northern tier and Manitoba by Mon. There could be a trend
toward more NW flow as we head into the middle of next week.

Temperatures will not roam very far from seasonal values during this
regime, with daytime highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Predominately VFR at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. The
exception will be when thunderstorms or rain showers move
overhead. Winds will be southerly today and turn to the northwest
Wednesday morning at DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
516 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-301030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
516 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur today, mainly mid
afternoon into the early evening. Highest chances are in
northwestern and west central Minnesota and the northern Red River
valley. A few severe storms are possible with hail to 1.5 inches
and wind gusts to 75 mph the main threats. The highest risk is
in northwestern or west central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Wednesday,
but no severe weather is anticipated. Chances for thunderstorms
will also occur Friday afternoon thru Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

dtr

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             PARK RAPIDS             46.92N 95.06W
05/29/2018  E0.88 INCH       HUBBARD            MN   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             3 E SEBEKA              46.63N 95.03W
05/29/2018  E2.00 INCH       Wadena             MN   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST SHOWING MULTIPLE LARGE HAIL STONES
            AROUND 2 - 2.25 INCHES.

&&

AMOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
537 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ005-006-292315-
Roseau MN-Lake Of The Woods MN-
537 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROSEAU AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Norris Camp, or 31 miles southeast of Roseau, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williams, Roosevelt, Norris Camp, Swift and Zippel Bay State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4849 9509 4851 9521 4854 9521 4854 9535
      4900 9525 4887 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 190DEG 21KT 4859 9520

Lee

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
552 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             1 SSW BENEDICT          47.14N 94.70W
05/29/2018  E1.00 INCH       Hubbard            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

NC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
554 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             RED LAKE                47.88N 95.02W
05/29/2018  E1.25 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

&&

NC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
604 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ006-292345-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
604 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Long Point, or 39 miles east of Roseau, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Garden Island State Recreation Area around 635 PM CDT.
  Oak Island and Flag Island around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake of the Woods, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4933 9486 4932 9481 4929 9482 4918 9479
      4912 9477 4909 9475 4895 9470 4887 9478
      4896 9511 4937 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 200DEG 21KT 4901 9494

AM/AL