Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
338 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

While weak surface high pressure is in control, there is plenty of
showers and thunderstorms across TN down through north AL moving
eastward this afternoon. This is all in association with a
shortwave/weak troughing in the mid-levels. There is plenty of
available instability and moisture across our region, thus we
anticipate this activity to move through north GA through the
remainder of the afternoon/evening.  While the effective shear is
weak, it might be enough to see an organized line develop. Based on
the cold pools and looking at Q vectors analysis, if a line develops
late this afternoon, the outflows could drive a faster storm motion
further to the SE. This would then bring some of the activity across
east central GA later this evening. We will have to monitor the
mesoanalysis as we progress through the afternoon. Given this, there
is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to storm coverage and
timeline. Storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning, small hail and heavy rain being the main
impacts. Most of the activity should shift east of the area by
tonight.

A brief reprieve in precipitation activity is expected overnight
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again tomorrow
afternoon/evening.  A front draped across KY will try to drop south
Thursday night, eventually becoming stalled along the northern tier
of GA Friday morning.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday afternoon with
heat indices around 101-104 in SE GA, just below heat advisory
criteria.

26

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The long term period begins with a broad trough over the eastern
US and higher pressure to our south, putting us in nearly zonal
flow with a front draped across the area. This front will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
across the area. While the front lingers and stalls across the
area, a developing shortwave to our west on Friday will push into
the area on Saturday/Sunday. The additional forcing leading will
likely lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, a pocket
of energy moving through the base of the aforementioned trough
will eventually become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, pushing a cold front across the area most likely on
Monday/Tuesday.

Instability will also be present every afternoon/evening leading to
chance and likely pops across the area through Monday. PWATS through
that time frame are forecast to be in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, so
heavy rain will also be possible with any storms in addition to
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Although there are still timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF on the frontal passage, eventually that front pushes through
the area and brings in some drier air. The GFS is just slightly
faster than the ECMWF, pushing the drier air in on Monday
afternoon opposed to much later on Monday into Tuesday. Overall,
Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be the "driest" days of
the extended, especially for northern areas. PWATs are even
forecast to dip below 1 inch as the drier air filters into the
area!

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area with lows in the
uppers 60s and lower to mid 70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions to start the TAF period with CU building across
the region. Most shower and thunderstorm activity across north GA
will shift east and south eventually. The timeline for the best
chance of thunderstorms for the metro will be between 20-00Z with
AHN holding on a bit longer as the bulk of the precipitation
moves east this evening. MCN and CSG will have scattered
convection. BKN CU will diminish overnight with debris clouds
lingering. The CU deck will develop again by mid/late morning with
showers initiating by the early afternoon. West winds through the
period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to Moderate on timing and location of the convection.
Moderate to High on all other elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  50  60  50  50
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  50  70  60  60
Blairsville     65  82  65  82 /  60  60  50  60
Cartersville    71  88  69  86 /  60  70  60  60
Columbus        73  92  74  90 /  30  50  50  60
Gainesville     71  88  71  86 /  50  60  50  60
Macon           73  91  73  91 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            71  88  70  86 /  60  60  60  60
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  40  60  60  60
Vidalia         75  93  74  92 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms should develop after noon, especially
over north Georgia and increase in coverage as they move south
during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, large hail up to 1
inch in diameter and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1241 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ006-007-081715-
Gilmer GA-Fannin GA-
1241 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GILMER AND FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1240 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cherry Log, or near
Blue Ridge...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Dial, Cherry Log and Loving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3478 8449 3487 8449 3492 8421 3475 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 269DEG 12KT 3482 8441

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1257 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ009-081715-
Towns GA-
1257 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TOWNS COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM EDT...

At 1256 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Titus, or near
Hiawassee...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Tate City, Macedonia, Plum Orchard Gap Shelter, Titus and Mountain
Scene.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3495 8355 3494 8360 3492 8359 3491 8363
      3490 8363 3488 8366 3485 8366 3485 8373
      3495 8374 3499 8359 3499 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 257DEG 21KT 3491 8364

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ001>005-011-012-019-081930-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Dade GA-
Murray GA-Floyd GA-
259 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHATTOOGA...WHITFIELD...
CATOOSA...WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GORDON...DADE...MURRAY AND
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Fairview to near Sulpher Springs...and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Calhoun, Lafayette, Summerville, Chatsworth, Ringgold,
Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Trion, Varnell, Lookout
Mountain, Eton, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, Resaca, Menlo, Center Post,
Crandall and Subligna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8462 3495 8462 3449 8487 3447 8550
      3477 8556 3498 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 246DEG 40KT 3494 8531 3464 8553

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ002>006-011-012-019-082000-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
Floyd GA-Fannin GA-
333 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...WHITFIELD...
CATOOSA...WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GORDON...MURRAY...FLOYD AND
NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Gap Springs to near Center Post...and moving
northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Dalton, Calhoun, Lafayette, Summerville, Chatsworth, Ringgold,
Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Trion, Varnell, Eton, Tunnel Hill,
Cohutta, Resaca, Lyerly, Menlo, Center Post, Crandall and Subligna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8435 3485 8452 3485 8461 3482 8458
      3476 8464 3414 8543 3460 8553 3499 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 242DEG 25KT 3498 8483 3458 8543

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH