Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Atlanta, GA

722 
WWUS52 KFFC 191949
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

GAC023-091-175-191959-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-180619T2000Z/
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-Bleckley GA-
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN BLECKLEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Peachtree City.

LAT...LON 3247 8331 3251 8313 3241 8301 3226 8300
      3221 8323 3230 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 348DEG 3KT 3236 8318 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.Update...
No big changes for the forecast.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Current synoptic pattern early this morning is characterized by
longwave troughing across the western US...with center located
roughly across Montana. Downstream of this trough a ridge
encompasses much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country...with a
stronger belt of westerly flow and associated short wave trough
traversing New England. In the lower levels...an elongated frontal
boundary extends from New England westward thru the Midwest and
Central Plains. High pressure exists south of the front across most
of the Southern US...with a weak trough extending down the leeward
side of the Appalachians.

With the larger scale pattern in mind...large scale forcing for
descent should dominate the sensible weather pattern across the
Southeast. Although this is largely the case for today...evidence of
weak lingering vorticity at 700mb...weak sfc troughing...and strong
diurnal heating should still be able to produce isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Think lift supplied by 700
vort and troughing will be best just south of the CWA...so POPs will
rely mostly on buoyancy generated by max heating. With better ridging
than yesterday...have kept POPs between 20-30 percent except in the
mtns where orographic enhancement may exist. Given flow is still
weak altho slightly better than yesterday-main thunderstorm hazards
should still be heavy rainfall and gusty winds within
downdrafts...as projected soundings indicate nice inverted V
signature and sfc-3km lapse rates between 8-9C/km. Activity should
wind down after sunset.

By Wednesday...tropical moisture associated with a slow moving
trough along the TX Coast will begin to be advected north into the
lower MS Valley with the help of Tuesday's Montana low as it glides
south across the Plains and ridge continues over Southeast. North
Georgia will be most vulnerable to increasing moisture from these
systems as mid level ridge influence begins to decrease. Could see
better afternoon thunderstorm activity across this region with
isolated diurnal activity expected elsewhere. Temps remain hot in
the 90s amidst upper 60s-lower 70s dewpoints thru the short term.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Dominate broad upper level ridge begins to flatten out at the
beginning of the extended period as upper level trough approaches
from the northwest. Models are in better agreement with handling
the breakdown of the high and the influx of better moisture into
the region. Have continued to show increasing pop trend,
particularly over north Georgia, beginning Thursday, with likely
pops on Friday. Solutions continue to show that front associated
with the upper level low will push through the state by Saturday
morning, with the parent system remaining to the north. Best
moisture stays north of the state for the remainder of the
weekend, with seasonal pops returning into early week.

Temperatures remain warm through the extended period, and with
high relative humidity over the region, portions of central and
eastern Georgia could see heat index values in the low 100s. At
this time these values are below the Heat Advisory Criteria, but
anyone with outdoor activities should stay weather aware. Those
spending prolonged periods of time outdoors should take frequent
breaks and stay hydrated.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Afternoon cumulus developing should remain at vfr levels and
dissipate after 02z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may affect
the taf sites but probability is low...so will wait and see how they
develop before including a tempo group. Winds should remain
northwest. Expect a repeat for tomorrow.

41

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all forecast elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  74  95  73 /  20  10  20  10
Atlanta         92  75  92  75 /  30  10  20  10
Blairsville     87  66  86  67 /  30  10  30  20
Cartersville    92  71  92  71 /  20  10  20  20
Columbus        94  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
Gainesville     91  73  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Macon           95  74  96  75 /  20  10  20  10
Rome            92  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  20
Peachtree City  93  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
Vidalia         94  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
431 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, with the most coverage
expected during the afternoon and evening, and better chances over
the northeast Georgia mountains. Some storms could be strong with
an isolated severe storm or two possible. The main threats will
be isolated flooding from locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms everyday for the next week,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could
be strong to severe each day with strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning and isolated flooding from heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

GAZ096-109-191945-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
314 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLECKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Yonkers, or 9 miles
north of Eastman...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eastman, Chester, Dubois, Gresston, Plainfield, Empire, Yonkers,
Roddy and Rowland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3228 8334 3245 8329 3245 8315 3223 8304
      3218 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 353DEG 5KT 3233 8318

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH