Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
949 AM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues northwest of
San Antonio into the Hill Country as mid level shear axis combines
with lower level jet hitting the higher terrain of the Escarpment.
Have boosted POPs for this morning across those areas. Expect low
level jet to mix out by midday, then heating will allow showers and
thunderstorms to become more scattered and maintained POPs as
currently advertised. Remainder of forecast on track with today being
the last day of POPs areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018/

AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and isolated storms are moving north over the Hill
Country into the Austin metro area. Much of this activity is
concentrating along a low level E-W oriented cyclonic shear axis
that should slowly lift north during the day. Thus only some spotty
convective activity is expected to impact the I-35 terminals in the
next 1 to 2 hours with a few hours of benign weather before daytime
heating regenerates some air mass convection by mid afternoon. More
continuous convection is suggested in the rapid refresh models for
DRT so will leave a vague vcsh inclusion for all of the day as long
as the convection impacts continue to look minimal for them on radar.
Some lingering ifr cigs continue along I-35 and another few hours of
mvfr cigs should finish out much of the morning. Meanwhile, DRT has
remained above mvfr levels; will leave as such, but a brief dip into
mvfr is possible in the next hour or two. Ifr cigs may redevelop
along I-35 late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad ridge over the
country with easterly flow over central Texas. Surface winds were
generally light from the southeast and dewpoint temperatures were in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep layer easterly flow will continue
today keeping deep moisture in place. This flow will leave the
atmosphere uncapped, but with very little vertical wind shear. We
expect another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
particularly during the afternoon. Convection will be diurnally
driven and will dissipate through the evening. Mid-level winds will
shift slightly to the southeast tonight and this will bring drier air
over the region leading to decreasing chances for convection
Tuesday. The best chances Tuesday will be over the southeast.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Drier mid-level flow will continue through the week. This will mean
no chance for rain for most of the area. There may be enough moisture
over the east counties for slight chances for rain each day through
Saturday. Each day the area for possible convection will shrink to
the east. With the decrease in rain and associated cloudiness,
temperatures will increase through the week. Highs will climb above
normal and stay there through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  74  95  76  96 /  60  20  20  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  73  95  75  95 /  60  20  20  -   20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  74  95  74  95 /  50  20  20  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            88  72  94  74  94 /  60  30  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  75  96  77  98 /  50  30  10  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  73  95  75  95 /  60  20  20  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             91  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  10  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  75  94  76  94 /  50  20  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  74  95  76  96 /  50  20  20  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           92  74  95  75  96 /  50  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...BMW
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
548 AM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101100-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
548 AM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
into the evening across South-Central Texas. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time. However, heavy downpours of 1 to 2
inches, gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes will be
possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.