Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

753 
WGUS73 KEAX 261658
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

MOC037-095-261708-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180326T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass MO-Jackson MO-
1158 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3859 9461 3877 9461 3894 9411 3875 9412

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

Satellite imagery highlights a large trough digging into the Great
Basin this morning, with the resulting southwest flow across the
southern and central Plains readily evident on water vapor. At the
surface a lee side low is noted over the Texas panhandle with a warm
front stretching east through Oklahoma. Also of note, radar started
to pick up developing storms across central and north central
Missouri early this morning in response to the elevated front that
the southwest flow is pushing across region. However, the main show,
with widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms, will wait till
closer to dawn to develop as that's when the main forcing will kick
in as a shortwave trough peels away from the northern side of the
large trough in the Great Basin; with the resulting low level jet
across Oklahoma into Missouri providing much of the needed lift to
help fuel the first round of today's storms.

For Today...storm activity is starting near Wichita this morning
with the help of the developing low level jet and resulting moisture
transport. The storms are elevated in nature, but are tapping into a
fair amount of instability as early morning analysis shows the
storms developing in an area with MUCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
J/KG range, which is on the leading edge of the great-than-one-inch
precipitable water value that are moving north across the southern
Plains. With 0-6KM shear values in the 40 knot range, this likely
means that the thunderstorms that arrive this morning, while
elevated, will be a bit feisty with lightning, periods of heavy
rain, and small to  marginally severe hail sized hail possible. This
first round of storms will likely be focused across eastern and far
northwest Missouri, on the nose of the low level jet. Much of the
morning activity will likely lift north, with scattered showers
persisting through the afternoon hours across the region as warm air
and moisture advection persist. This will bring a warm front north
into east central Kansas and central Missouri by this afternoon,
with highs peaking above 60 in areas south of Highway 50.

For tonight into Tuesday...expect a surface wave to start moving
north toward the base of the trough shifting across the northern
Plains; this will help define the cold front as the trough moves
through overnight, reinvigorating storms moving northeast into
southern and central Missouri. This will bring torrential rains to
areas up and down the I-44 corridor across southern and eastern
Missouri. There will likely be a decent gradient in precipitation
values, but we still might pick up an additional inch of rain in
areas south of the Missouri River tonight, potentially leading to
flooding on area creeks, streams, and rivers. Expect storms to
persist into Tuesday across southern and eastern Missouri, with
more scattered shower like activity for our section of central and
western Missouri.

Rest of the work week...will see temperatures bounce around normal
as the axis of the Great Basin trough shifts east. This will also
bring a return of precipitation Thursday into Friday and maybe
again over the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

A line of stormy activity fired up in Kansas early this morning,
arriving at the state line terminals around 11Z. Storms will
continue to move northeast, with some low clouds and showers
remaining possible through the morning hours. Expect a bit of
break from the storms this afternoon, but we might get more
showers this evening as a cold front presses into the region. The
front will finally shift the winds to the north late tonight,
which is also expected to help start lifting CIGs as the boundary
layer starts drying out.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 On and off storms are expected today through late tonight across
the forecast area. Isolated hail up to one inch is possible for areas
south of I-70 and east of U.S. HWY 63.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Storms will diminish late tonight, but the widespread rain will
stick around, with the heavier rainfall shifting south over the I-44
corridor. Rainfall totals between one half of an inch to one and a
half inches may lead to some isolated flooding, especially south of
I-70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
709 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

MOZ037-043-044-261245-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Jackson MO-
709 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 709 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Lake Winnebago, or near Raymore, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lee's Summit, Belton, Raymore, Pleasant Hill, Greenwood, Peculiar,
Lake Lotawana, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack, Baldwin Park, Strasburg and
Tarsney Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9452 3900 9417 3880 9402 3868 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 241DEG 29KT 3878 9438

Cutter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     HAIL             FREEMAN                 38.62N 94.51W
03/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
736 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 AM     HAIL             PLEASANT HILL           38.79N 94.27W
03/26/2018  M1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED AT WFO EAX.

&&

JWELSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
736 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

MOZ037-038-044-261315-
Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
736 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM
CDT...

At 736 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lone Jack, or near Lake Lotawana, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Grove, Odessa, Higginsville, Lone Jack, Mayview, Lake Lafayette,
Bates City and Pittsville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 31 and
52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 9412 3883 9412 3883 9418 3892 9423
      3918 9385 3894 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 231DEG 27KT 3888 9415

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
740 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     HAIL             PECULIAR                38.72N 94.46W
03/26/2018  M0.88 INCH       CASS               MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
744 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 AM     HAIL             LOUISBURG               38.62N 94.68W
03/26/2018  M1.25 INCH       MIAMI              KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JWELSH