Beach Hazards Statement 5, NWS Detroit, MI

171 
WHUS43 KDTX 220728
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018


MIZ076-222000-
/O.EXB.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Lakeshore Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this
evening. 

* High Water Levels Expected.

* Location...Gibraltar

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with high wave
  action will have potential to result in minor shoreline flooding
  and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts, or watercraft anchored
  along the shoreline will be possible. Water levels are forecast
  to rise to 68 inches this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

&&

$$

MIZ083-222000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along the Monroe County shoreline 
  including... Estral Beach...Sterling State Park...Toledo Beach 
  and Luna Pier. 

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Easterly wind sustained at 15 to 20 knots
  will gust up to 30 knots at times. The persistent onshore wind
  is expected to produce 3 to 5 foot waves with occasional waves
  to 7 feet. The combination of the wind and waves will help lift
  water levels to between 68 and 72 inches along the Monroe County
  shoreline today.

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet 
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with the high 
  wave action will have potential to result in minor shoreline 
  flooding and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts, or 
  watercraft anchored along the shoreline will be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

MIZ048-222000-
/O.EXB.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Bay-
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Beach Hazards Statement for dangerous swimming conditions, which
is in effect through this evening. 

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along Saginaw Bay in Bay County. 

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

552 
WHUS43 KDTX 221004
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018


MIZ083-222000-
/O.UPG.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.LS.W.0002.180622T1004Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Lakeshore Flood Warning, which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this
evening. The Lakeshore Flood Advisory is no longer in effect. 

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along the Monroe County shoreline 
  including... Estral Beach...Sterling State Park...Toledo Beach 
  and Luna Pier. 

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Easterly wind sustained at 15 to 20 knots
  will gust up to 30 knots at times. The persistent onshore wind
  is expected to produce 3 to 5 foot waves with occasional waves
  to 7 feet. The combination of the wind and waves will help lift
  water levels to between 72 and 76 inches along the Monroe 
  County shoreline today. 

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with the high
  wave action will result in shoreline flooding and erosion.
  Property damage due to flooding is possible in flood prone areas
  along the immediate shoreline. Damage to docks, boat lifts, or
  watercraft anchored along the shoreline can also be expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent along the lake. Residents on or near the shore in the
warned area should be alert for rising water...and take
appropriate action to protect life and property.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

High wave action alone can make swimming difficult on days such
as this. Incoming waves in rapid succession can tire a swimmer
quickly.

&&

$$

MIZ076-222000-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* High Water Levels Expected.

* Location...Gibraltar

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with high wave
  action will have potential to result in minor shoreline flooding
  and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts, or watercraft anchored
  along the shoreline will be possible. Water levels are forecast
  to rise to 70 inches this afternoon. Minor property damage due
  to flooding is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&

$$

MIZ048-222000-
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Bay-
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along Saginaw Bay in Bay County.

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

756 
WHUS43 KDTX 221805
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
205 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018


MIZ083-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
205 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along the Monroe County shoreline 
  including... Estral Beach...Sterling State Park...Toledo Beach 
  and Luna Pier. 

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Persistent 20 to 25 mph wind from the east
  northeast will continue producing waves between 3 and 6 feet for
  the next several hours. The combination of elevated waves and
  wind pushing water inland will cause minor flooding as water
  levels rise toward 72 inches.

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet 
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with the high 
  wave action will result in shoreline flooding and erosion. 
  Property damage due to flooding is possible in flood prone 
  areas along the immediate shoreline. Damage to docks, boat 
  lifts, or watercraft anchored along the shoreline can also be 
  expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent along the lake. Residents on or near the shore in the
warned area should be alert for rising water...and take
appropriate action to protect life and property.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

High wave action alone can make swimming difficult on days such
as this. Incoming waves in rapid succession can tire a swimmer
quickly.

&&

$$

MIZ076-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
205 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* High Water Levels Expected.

* Location...Gibraltar

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with high wave
  action will have potential to result in minor shoreline flooding
  and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts, or watercraft anchored
  along the shoreline will be possible. Water levels are forecast
  to rise to 68 inches this afternoon. Minor property damage due 
  to flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&

$$

MIZ048-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Bay-
205 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along Saginaw Bay in Bay County.

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

532 
WHUS43 KDTX 222132
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
532 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

MIZ083-230200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
532 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Lakeshore Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this
evening. The Lakeshore Flood Warning has been cancelled. 

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along the Monroe County shoreline 
  including... Estral Beach...Sterling State Park...Toledo Beach 
  and Luna Pier. 

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Persistent 20 to 25 mph wind from the east
  northeast will continue producing waves between 3 and 6 feet for
  the next several hours. The combination of elevated waves and
  wind pushing water inland will cause minor flooding as water
  levels rise back toward 72 inches. 

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet 
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with the high 
  wave action will result in shoreline flooding and erosion. 
  Property damage due to flooding is possible in flood prone 
  areas along the immediate shoreline. Damage to docks, boat 
  lifts, or watercraft anchored along the shoreline can also be 
  expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

MIZ076-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
532 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* High Water Levels Expected.

* Location...Gibraltar

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with moderate
  east wind have potential to result in minor shoreline flooding
  and erosion. Water levels are forecast to rise and hold around
  66 inches through the evening. Minor property damage due to 
  flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&

$$

MIZ048-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Bay-
532 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along Saginaw Bay in Bay County.

* Impacts...The high wave action will be favorable for rip 
  currents and structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

BT/AM

201 
WHUS43 KDTX 230010
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

MIZ048-230115-
/O.CAN.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Bay-
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Beach Hazards Statement. 

Hazardous swimming conditions will end as northeast wind 
continues to diminish across the Bay and allows waves to subside 
during the evening.

$$

MIZ083-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* High Wave Action and Dangerous Swimming Conditions Expected.

* Location...Beaches along the Monroe County shoreline 
  including... Estral Beach...Sterling State Park...Toledo Beach 
  and Luna Pier. 

* Impacts...High waves will be favorable for rip currents and 
  structural currents that make swimming dangerous. 

* Lake Shore Flooding...Persistent 20 to 25 mph wind from the east
  to northeast will continue producing waves between 3 and 6 feet
  through mid evening. The combination of elevated waves and wind
  pushing water inland will cause minor flooding as water levels 
  rise back toward 72 inches. 

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet 
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with the high 
  wave action will result in shoreline flooding and erosion. 
  Property damage due to flooding is possible in flood prone 
  areas along the immediate shoreline. Damage to docks, boat 
  lifts, or watercraft anchored along the shoreline can also be 
  expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

Structural currents form along piers where longshore currents and
wave action flow into the structure. Structural currents can
sweep you out lakeward along the pier structure.

&&

$$

MIZ076-230200-
/O.CON.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* High Water Levels Expected.

* Location...Gibraltar

* Lake Shore Flooding...Persistent 20 to 25 mph wind from the east
  to northeast will continue produce high water level through mid
  evening. The combination of elevated waves and wind pushing
  water inland will make minor flooding possible. The water level
  is expected to hover around 66 inches through mid evening. 

* Impacts...The Lake Erie undisturbed water level is over 4 feet
  above chart datum. The high water level combined with moderate
  east wind has potential to result in minor shoreline flooding
  and erosion. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds will
generate flooding of low areas along the lakeshore.

* Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/safety

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&

$$

BT

950 
WHUS43 KDTX 230212
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

MIZ083-230315-
/O.EXP.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
/O.EXP.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Monroe-
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

Lakeshore flooding potential and hazardous swimming conditions 
have ended as northeast wind continues to diminish across Lake 
Erie. 

$$

MIZ076-230315-
/O.EXP.KDTX.LS.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180623T0200Z/
Wayne-
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Lakeshore flooding potential has ended as northeast wind 
continues to diminish across Lake Erie. 

$$

BT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
713 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.AVIATION...

Northeast flow from high pressure over the northern Great Lakes
continues to pump low level dry air into SE Michigan tonight. This
maintains VFR conditions as high clouds thicken in advance of the
low pressure system over the Midwest. The slow eastward movement of
this system will bring a gradual diminishing trend in aviation
conditions through Friday. Dry air in the low levels will continue
to battle against moisture moving northward from the front over
Indiana and Ohio. Expect scattered high based VFR showers to precede
MVFR ceiling projected to reach the DTW corridor around noon but
possibly not reaching MBS until closer to Friday evening.
Thunderstorm potential appears minimal through the period as surface
based instability remains south of the Ohio border and elevated
instability is weak and barely reaching DTW.

For DTW... Easterly wind continues to require NE traffic flow
operations through the period and will help hold back MVFR clouds
for a while Friday morning. MVFR then becomes established during the
afternoon with a period of IFR likely as the northern fringe of the
occluded front and triple point reach NW Ohio toward Friday evening.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling dropping below 5000 ft Friday morning. High Friday
  afternoon.

* Very low for thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions for much of MI for the remainder of today as a high
pressure slowly migrating into Quebec influences majority of the
weather today. The only exception will be low PoPs late this
afternoon/early evening across far southern tier of counties as
light showers associated with weak lift ahead of the upper level low
pivot along the southern state line. Northeasterly gradient flow and
long fetch into Inner Saginaw Bay will allow for stronger wind gusts
of 20-25 knots keeping elevated water levels and potential lakeshore
flooding along Bay County through this evening. Cooler northeasterly
flow off of Lake Huron will bring overnight low temperatures down
into the 50s for areas along and north of I-69. Low to mid 60s for
the lower portions of MI. Precipitation chances will continue to
increase across Lower MI late tonight as the closed upper low
meanders out of MO and into IL and a greater push of moisture along
an approaching occluded/warm front lifts northward.

The high pressure holding much of the precipitation towards lower MI
will begin drifting eastward tomorrow allowing for the northward
advancement of moisture and associated lift. Moisture advection will
begin to saturate the resident drier airmass. PWATs are forecast to
exceed 1.50 inches, which will create potential for periods of heavy
rainfall. Greater instability will remain to the south, but enough
CAPE will enter the area with mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km to
bring a slight chance for thunderstorms. Increasing east northeast
winds across Lake Erie with the approach of the low tonight will
bring potential for lakeshore flooding across portions of Monroe
County. Lakeshore Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight into
tomorrow morning.

The upper low will begin to weaken and pivot through IN by tomorrow
evening and become an open wave in the mid levels by Saturday. Track
of this low bring it right over MI and continue the chance for
precipitation tomorrow night into Saturday. Continued high moisture
in the atmosphere will again bring potential for brief heavy
rainfall. Saturday afternoon will see instability increase with CAPE
values reaching around 1000 J/kg, but shear and mid level lapse
rates remain weak. The increase in instability will bring a better
chance of thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon. Slow progression of
this low pressure system will continue rain chances into Saturday
night with an additional source of lift arriving with the incoming
mid level jet.

Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon: A slight chance for showers
will persist across SE MI with higher chances over the Thumb as a
weak backdoor cold front and upper-level shortwave trough push
across the region. Rain chances will quickly diminish late Sunday as
a broad surface high pressure system centered across southern
Ontario builds south into New York from 12Z Mon - 06Z Tue.
Associated subsidence from the high pressure will allow for plenty
of sunshine both Monday and Tuesday as temperatures peak in the
upper 70s (Mon) to low-mid 80s (Tue) for a daytime high.

Temperatures are expected to climb back into the mid to upper 80s
for a daytime high later this week as WAA ramps up across SE MI. The
latest 12Z ECMWF model run pushes 850 mb temperatures from an
average of 16C on 12Z Tue  up to an average of 19C by 12Z Wed. The
GFS and ECMWF suites are not as aggressive with WAA so will not
advertise the chance of 90+ degrees as of yet. Otherwise, the
increase in warm and moist air in conjunction with an upper-level
trough and shortwave will bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms centered around the Wed 12Z - Thu 00Z timeframe.
Showalter indices ranging between 0 to -4C are forecasted as the
shortwave moves across SE MI.

MARINE...

Moderate easterly flow will persist through Friday as the region
remains between high pressure anchored over Ontario and low pressure
slowly tracking into the Ohio valley. This onshore flow will
maintain higher wave action in Saginaw Bay and the exposed nearshore
waters of the thumb through this evening. Small craft conditions
will also develop along the Michigan waters of Lake Erie as winds
increase tonight, with these conditions persisting through Friday.
Conditions may become unsettled at times Friday and Saturday, as the
increasing influence of low pressure will bring the risk of showers
along with possible thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY...

A low pressure system now over Illinois will slowly track eastward
and into the Ohio valley through Friday. This system will then
linger near or just south of the region on Saturday. Moisture will
increase north of this system, leading to increases chances for
showers Friday through Saturday. The potential for isolated
thunderstorms will also exist. Rainfall amounts during this period
will range from one quarter to inch, with locally higher amounts
possible within any thunderstorm activity. Higher totals will
general focus south of the I-69 corridor. Some minor poor drainage
flooding of low lying and urban areas will be possible.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ048-049-
     054-055.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ048.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441-
     442.

Lake St Clair...NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AA/AM
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

MIZ048-049-054-055-222000-
Bay-Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through this evening. A
Lakeshore Flood Advisory is also in effect for Bay County through
this evening. Please see the latest Coastal Hazard Message for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ047-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-222000-
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-222000-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Small Craft Advisory for western Lake Erie in effect this evening
into tomorrow morning. See marine forecast for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-222000-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Huron.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory in effect into this evening for Saginaw Bay
and the nearshore waters of Lake Huron from Port Austin to Port
Sanilac. Refer to latest marine forecast for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ083-222000-
Monroe-
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect for Monroe County this
evening into tomorrow morning. Please see the latest Coastal Hazard
Message for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AA