River Flood Watch 21, NWS Des Moines, IA

391 
WGUS63 KDMX 202222
FFADMX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
522 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...The Flood Watch continues for all or portions of the following 
rivers in Iowa...South Skunk River...

  Affecting the following counties in Iowa...Jasper...Marion...Polk
  
River forecasts include observed precipitation, as well as expected 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.
 
If rainfall in the basin is less than predicted, the forecast river 
stage may not be reached. Conversely, if rainfall is more than 
predicted the river may crest higher.
 
As the forecast becomes more certain, this watch will be either 
upgraded to a Flood Warning or canceled.

IAZ060>061-074-211621-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.A.0021.180623T0900Z-180625T1400Z/
/CFXI4.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
522 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday morning...

The Flood Watch continues for
  The South Skunk River at Colfax, or From the Jasper-Polk County 
  Line...to the Jasper-Marion County line.
* Until Sunday morning.
* At  4:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.7 feet, or 3.3 feet below 
  Flood Stage.
* Flood Stage is 18.0 feet.
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise to Flood Stage early Saturday morning. Continue 
  rising to 18.3 feet, or 0.3 feet above Flood Stage, Saturday 
  evening. Then begin falling and go below Flood Stage Sunday 
  morning.
* There is limited confidence in this river forecast. Forecasts may 
  change so monitor for updated information. 


&&

LAT...LON 4142 9287 4168 9335 4174 9335 4170 9309
      4151 9287 4142 9287             

$$

Ansorge

827 
WGUS63 KDMX 210123
FFADMX

Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
823 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...The Flood Watch has been cancelled for all or portions of the 
following rivers in Iowa...South Skunk River...

  Affecting the following counties in Iowa...Jasper...Marion...Polk
  
The threat for flooding has ended as the forecast keeps river levels
below flood stage. Therefore the Flood Watch has been cancelled. 

IAZ060>061-074-210153-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.A.0021.000000T0000Z-180625T1400Z/
/CFXI4.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
823 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Flood Watch is cancelled...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for
  The South Skunk River at Colfax, or From the Jasper-Polk County 
  Line...to the Jasper-Marion County line.
* At 7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.7 feet, or 3.3 feet below 
  Flood Stage.
* Forecast...crest below Flood Stage with a stage of 15.5 feet, or 
  2.5 feet below Flood Stage, Friday morning. 

&&

LAT...LON 4142 9287 4168 9335 4174 9335 4170 9309
      4151 9287 4142 9287             

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
657 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 421 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Ongoing cluster of storms over northern Iowa are slowly weakening
with respect rainfall rates. Dual pol and MRMS still suggest 1-2
inch per hour rates. Earlier in the night, dual pol instantaneous
rates range from 3 to 5 inches per hour while MRMS was capped out
around 2 inches. This was likely due to MRMS depicting some hail
within this line of storms that transitioned northward through
Highway 20 corridor. However, MRMS precipitation estimates a decent
rain band that ranged from 2-3 inches over southeast Calhoun into
southern Webster County. The 20.07z HRRR has the best handle on the
radar trends this morning and slowly diminishes the current cluster
by around 12z. However, some redevelop looks possible during the
remainder of the morning hours over northern Iowa but low confidence
with additional flash flooding as coverage seems minimal.

The next concern of the forecast period was focused on widespread
storms later today into tonight across central to northern Iowa.  An
area of low looks to develop in the vicinity of NW Missouri, SE
Nebraska, NE Kansas, and SW Iowa by around 18z this afternoon. This
coupled with a strong 500mb shortwave trough to dig across Nebraska
and northern Iowa will ignite storms along a warm front extending
from southeast Iowa northwest to the west-central portions of the
CWA. The NAM/GFS and the 20.00z HREF look to have a good handle on
the situations this afternoon and tonight. A widespread swath of 2 to
2.50" precipitable water values stretch from around Ottuwma northwest
through Des Moines/Ames and into the northwest portions of the CWA.
Warm layer cloud depths of 4000-4500 meters with moderate to strong
moisture transport suggest more efficient rain producers in the
aforementioned location. Increased QPF over the area as expecting a
swatch of 1.5 to 3 inches from the central portions of the CWA
northwest to between Carroll and Estherville. With the HREF
depicting amounts over 4 to 5 inches, certainly these types of
rainfall amounts will cause some flash flood concerns.  Thus,
confident in the heavy rain setup (and with the recent rains over
the past few days) to issue a Flash Flood Watch this afternoon into
Thursday morning. This coincides with Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall via WPC.

Lower confidence with any widespread severe storms today into
tonight as shear profiles remain weak.  Instability tries to increase
over southern Iowa this afternoon south of the boundary and
certainly cannot rule out some brief elevated hail storms this
afternoon into the evening.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 421 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Upper trough moving through the central Plains today will continue
to deepen and close off over the state Thursday into Friday while
continuing to wobble around the region. This will allow
precipitation chances to continue across the state Thursday into
Friday with bands of showers and some thunderstorms expected to
rotate through the forecast area. Instability is weaker across the
area with the upper trough overhead so went more with some shower
wording with more of a slight chance for thunder Thursday into
Friday. With the lack of instability the threat for heavy rainfall
to wane some for Thursday into Friday. Otherwise the upper trough
to push east into the Ohio Valley region by Friday night with
another shortwave trough dropping through the state by late
Saturday night into Sunday. This could bring another chance for
some scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger upper level
trough to then deepen as it moves east through the region Monday
into Wednesday of next week. This system will again bring
additional chances for precipitation to the state. Therefore
expecting a fairly wet period through the next 7 days. Will have
to assess the potential for additional heavy rain threats with the
system early next week as any flooding issues from the next 24
hours could be further exacerbated by continued precipitation
chances this weekend and again next week.

As for temperatures, highs to remain cooler Thursday into Friday
with the clouds/precipitation in place and the upper trough
rotating over the state with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s,
with even a few upper 60s possible Thursday. Temperatures to then
warm back to around 80 for Saturday through Monday and then warm
back into the 80s toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

IFR fog has developed over northern Iowa and is impacting ALO/MCW.
Expecting this fog to gradually dissipate and have VFR visibility
conditions by 15z at the latest. Ceilings are likely to remain at
least MVFR for much of the day for all TAF sites except OTM and
DSM. Expecting a break with the boundary surging north this
afternoon. Ceilings fill back into the state overnight with the
low pushing southeast. Also, with the heavy rain potential this
afternoon and tonight, have MVFR visibility mention for now, but
certainly cannot rule out IFR visibility at times. Low confidence
in mentioning due to timing and duration.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday
morning for IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>036-044>048-057>060-
070>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Podrazik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>036-044>048-057-058-070>072-211030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Audubon-
Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Madison-
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Thunderstorms are likely today into tonight. Heavy rainfall is
expected. An isolated strong to severe storm will be possible
mainly south of Highway 20 this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for weak thunderstorms across the area Thursday
into Friday. The severe weather threat is minimal. Thunderstorm
chances continue off and on through the weekend into early next
week. The threat of severe weather will be determined in the
coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight. Reports
of any flooding or heavy rainfall are always appreciated.

IAZ006-007-016-017-026>028-037>039-049-050-061-062-073>075-
081>086-092>097-211030-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hardin-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Warren-Marion-
Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely today into tonight. Heavy rainfall will
be possible with the thunderstorms. An isolated strong to severe
storm will be possible mainly south of Highway 20 this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for weak thunderstorms across the area Thursday
into Friday. The severe weather threat is minimal. Thunderstorm
chances continue off and on through the weekend into early next
week. The threat of severe weather will be determined in the
coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight. Reports
of heavy rainfall are always appreciated.

IAZ059-060-211030-
Dallas-Polk-
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Flash Flood Watch and a few River Flood Warnings are in effect
for the area. Please refer to the National Weather Service website
at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Thunderstorms are likely today into tonight. Heavy rainfall is
expected. An isolated strong to severe storm will be possible
this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for weak thunderstorms across the area Thursday
into Friday. The severe weather threat is minimal. Thunderstorm
chances continue off and on through the weekend into early next
week. The threat of severe weather will be determined in the
coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight. Reports
of any flooding or heavy rainfall are always appreciated.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
718 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE OTHO               42.44N 94.13W
06/20/2018                   WEBSTER            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD OF UNKNOWN DEPTH AT ELM AND
            NELSON AVENUE IN THE TOWN OF COALVILLE JUST
            SOUTHEAST OF FORT DODGE. ENOUGH ROCKS WERE
            WASHED ON ROAD THAT NEEDED TO BE CLEARED BY
            EQUIPMENT.

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE OTHO               42.43N 94.13W
06/20/2018                   WEBSTER            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD AT RIVERSIDE TRAIL AND
            SCHOOL STREET JUST NORTHEAST OF OTHO. THE
            WATER WASHED MUD ON THE ROAD AND COUNTY
            OFFICIALS NEEDED HEAVY EQUIPMENT TO CLEAR IT
            OFF THE ROAD.

&&