Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Dodge City, KS

729 
WWUS53 KDDC 172249
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

KSC129-172258-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-180517T2330Z/
Morton KS-
549 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3709 10156 3731 10139 3713 10113 3700 10109
      3700 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 247DEG 7KT 3697 10153 

$$

KSC189-172330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-180517T2330Z/
Stevens KS-
549 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTY...

At 548 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Hough, or 11 miles southeast of Rolla, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Hugoton and Feterita. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 10156 3731 10139 3713 10113 3700 10109
      3700 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 247DEG 7KT 3697 10153 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

FINCH

476 
WWUS53 KDDC 172257
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

KSC189-172330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-180517T2330Z/
Stevens KS-
557 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY...

At 556 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Hough, or 12 miles south of Feterita, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Stevens County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 10149 3710 10138 3713 10113 3700 10109
      3700 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 272DEG 26KT 3697 10145 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

FINCH

752 
WWUS53 KDDC 172313
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

KSC189-172330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-180517T2330Z/
Stevens KS-
613 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY...

At 613 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Hough, or 14 miles south of Feterita, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Stevens County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 10144 3707 10137 3708 10113 3700 10109
      3700 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 272DEG 21KT 3695 10139 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

FINCH

641 
WWUS53 KDDC 172326
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
626 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

KSC189-172335-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-180517T2330Z/
Stevens KS-
626 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
However gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3703 10144 3707 10137 3708 10113 3700 10109
      3700 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 228DEG 17KT 3699 10134 

$$

FINCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
137 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Gearing up for severe weather operations later today and again on
Friday/Friday night.

Surprise convection that developed earlier this morning is
weakening rapidly. We are expecting it to be quiet for several
hours now, through about 4 pm, as SE winds increase markedly and
instability mounts. CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg is expected across
along and west of US 83 by peak heating. Thunderstorms are
expected to initiate along the KS/CO border around 5 pm, and
subsequently spread eastward across SW KS this evening, reaching
Highway 283 by 9 pm. Many CAMs, HRRR and 12z NAM all show
convection remaining largely discrete/supercellular, which will
greatly enhance very large hail potential (up to 3" in diameter).
SPC has expanded severe probability and upgraded risk for large
hail, and we concur. Regarding tornado potential, low level shear
and moisture quality are less than optimal, keeping the risk low.
This said, we are talking about discrete supercells in SW KS in
May, during the early evening when SE 850 mb winds increase to
30-40 kts. A tornado can't be ruled out, but clearly hail is the
primary threat through this evening. Maintained a severe hail/wind
mention in the forecast mainly west of US 283 through this
evening. Increased pops into the likely category for several hours
this evening. Weakening storms will progress through the eastern
zones later tonight. There is uncertainty regarding the rate of
decay, as moisture quality will only be improving with eastward
extent and time. Regardless, expect most/all activity to clear SW
KS by sunrise Friday morning. Radiational cooling will be very
poor tonight, with moist SE flow persisting, holding most
locations in the lower 60s.

Another active severe weather day is expected on Friday. Details
are still emerging. Of note, a trend toward a slower solution
continues, with 12z NAM now trending its surface low SW toward
Clayton, New Mexico by 7 pm. This is close to the ECMWF's
continuity, placing its surface cyclone near Elkhart 7 pm Friday.
This slightly slower solution will give moisture quality some
additional time to improve, with initiation not expected until the
7 pm time frame along the US 83 corridor. Moisture quality will be
less than pristine (less than what we can normally get from the
Gulf of Mexico in May). Moisture depth in the boundary layer will
be less than optimal as seen from forecast soundings. Still, ECMWF
continues to spread low to mid 60 dewpoints into the eastern CWA,
and lower 60s can be expected along the dryline/triple point at
initiation time Friday evening. CAPE of 2-3k J/kg will be common,
with convergence and shear assisting in triggering and organizing
convection. The threat for tornadic supercells remains, with the
threat area trending SW with time. Excellent lapse rates will
continue to support huge hail from any discrete activity.
Otherwise, strong SE winds will continue moisture advection
through the daylight hours Friday, with highs again in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Very little time spent on the long term, given severe weather
threatening today and Friday. Model blend from forecast builder
was largely accepted, with small chances of showers and
thunderstorms virtually every day except Sunday.

Closed low over northern Utah Friday PM ejects rather quickly into
Nebraska on Saturday. Vast majority of associated shower and
thunderstorm activity will be north of SW KS by Saturday, with
gusty W/NW winds and modestly cooler temperatures. Some wraparound
rain showers will likely clip the I-70 corridor.

Broad shortwave ridging on Sunday, delivering a beautiful spring
day and dry weather. Pleasant highs in the 70s with light winds.

Monday into next week, 12z ECMWF displays a rather odd pattern for
May, with a large scale but relatively weak closed low enveloping
the SW US. 568 dm low near Los Angeles Monday afternoon
essentially sits and spins to Las Vegas Tuesday, before weakening
and lifting north through the Rockies. Broad SWly flow aloft will
prevail over the plains as a result, with numerous embedded
shortwaves triggering virtually constant small chances of daily
convection. Given it's May, some severe weather potential will
have to be evaluated day-to-day, as shortwaves/jet maxima interact
with the dryline and moisture supply. Temperatures will show
little diurnal change, with highs in 80s and lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR will prevail through this TAF cycle, outside of convective
influences. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/west of US 83 around 21-22z, and then progress eastward
through the SW KS terminals through 06z Fri. The threat of severe
hail/wind is highest near GCK/LBL this evening, with weakening
storms expected to reach DDC around 01-02z Fri, and HYS 03-04z.
Outside of convection, strong SE winds are expected to develop
at DDC/GCK/LBL this afternoon/evening, with gusts in the 30-32 kt
range. SE winds will remain gusty overnight, followed by more
strong SE winds after 15z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  86  61 /  20  60  30  30
GCK  87  61  88  57 /  20  60  50  30
EHA  90  60  90  56 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  89  64  91  60 /  60  60  50  10
HYS  86  63  84  61 /  10  30  30  40
P28  87  65  88  66 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
309 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
309 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018 /209 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening for western counties west of Highway 83 with large hail up
quarter sized and damaging winds up to 60 mph the main threat.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Fire weather risk will be critical at or near Red Flag conditions
Friday for western counties west of Highway 83. All other areas
will see a higher risk for severe weather. Large hail up to
baseball sized and damaging winds over 60 mph are likely Friday
afternoon and evening along with the possibility for a few
tornados.

Elevated fire risk Saturday behind a cold front but not again
until the middle of next week associated with the dryline.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Saturday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed west of Highway 83 late this
afternoon through the evening hours.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo