Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Dodge City, KS

004 
WWUS53 KDDC 102255
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

KSC175-102330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180610T2330Z/
Seward KS-
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SEWARD COUNTY...

At 555 PM CDT#commaOrEllipsis()a severe thunderstorm was located 6
miles west of Kismet#commaOrEllipsis()moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kismet and Hayne. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 10088 3736 10087 3731 10068 3713 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 228DEG 17KT 3722 10081 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

687 
WWUS53 KDDC 102315
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

KSC175-102325-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180610T2330Z/
Seward KS-
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3705 10088 3736 10087 3731 10068 3713 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 228DEG 17KT 3728 10072 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
245 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening as H5 vort maxima lift
northeast out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains
within a southwest flow aloft. A prevailing southerly flow will
continue to draw moisture into central and much of southwest Kansas
ahead of a deepening surface trough across eastern Colorado, in turn
keeping surface dewpoints generally up into the upper 50s(F) and
lower to mid 60s(F). Although the flow aloft will remain rather
weak, enough instability will be present with MUCAPE values upward
of 1500 to 2000 J/kg to support potential thunderstorm development
as approaching H5 vort maxima interact with the deepening trough
axis across eastern Colorado. Any convection should remain isolated
to widely scattered in nature with a fairly limited severe threat
potential due to the weak flow aloft and moderate at best shear
profiles.

A prevailing southerly flow and higher surface dewpoints will keep
lows from dropping below the 60s(F) tonight with the lower 70s(F)
likely in south central Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as
warm Monday as a cold front is projected to push through western
Kansas by early afternoon before stalling out generally from the
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. Widespread highs in the
90s(F) are expected with the mid/upper 80s(F) possible in west
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

A better chance for precip sets up late Tuesday into early
Wednesday as a zonal flow prevails across the Western High
Plains. Medium range models indicate a stalled frontal boundary
across the Texas Panhandle beginning to lift northward into
western Kansas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening in
response to lee side cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado.
Meanwhile, the GFS/GEM/ECMWF show a decent moisture return within
an east-southeasterly upslope flow, pushing surface dewpoints
well back up into the 50s(F) across southwest Kansas to the
lower/mid 60s(F) further east. As low/mid level lapse rates
steepen late Tuesday afternoon, H5 vort maxima kicking out of the
Central/Southern Rockies are expected to help trigger thunderstorms
across the high plains of eastern Colorado into far western
Kansas, then spread eastward overnight. Considering shear profiles
from model sounding output and expected instability, the main
threat will be large hail and damaging winds, especially as the
potential for storms transitioning into an MCS exist. Quieter
conditions are likely late Wednesday into early Thursday as
ridging aloft rebuilds across the Central Plains.

Near to a little above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday the
aforementioned stalled boundary across the panhandles begins to lift
northward into western Kansas by mid/late Tuesday afternoon. Should
see highs pushing the lower to mid 90(F) across much of southwest
and south central Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
further north near the I-70 corridor. A gradual warm up is then
likely through at least Thursday as ridging aloft builds across the
Central Plains while southerlies prevail ahead of lee side troughing
across eastern Colorado. Highs well into the 90s(F) are expected by
Thursday afternoon with near 100F possible in some locales.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through tonight. South
to southwesterly winds 20 to 35kt will persist across southwest and
central Kansas through early this evening as a lee side trough of
low pressure continues to strengthen across eastern Colorado. Winds
will begin to subside somewhat mid to late evening with the loss of
daytime heating/mixing. A cold front will then push through western
Kansas turning winds northerly 20 to 35kt, generally after 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  63  91 /  20   0   0  20
GCK  64  89  61  91 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  61  89  61  93 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  93  64  94 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  70  89  61  87 /  10   0   0  30
P28  73  96  68  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
456 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
456 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 /356 AM MDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms may be possible today along a dryline, mainly
affecting area south of Dodge City and toward the Oklahoma border.
Coverage will be limited. If storms develop, the main threat will
be strong to severe wind and large hail.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
A chance for thunderstorms will exist next
 week with some potential for isolated strong to severe
 thunderstorms Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

KSZ085-086-102215-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
427 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SEWARD AND STEVENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Feterita, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Hugoton, Moscow, Woods, Feterita and Cave.

LAT...LON 3700 10143 3713 10154 3737 10148 3737 10078
      3701 10097 3700 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 240DEG 36KT 3710 10139

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

KSZ086-102315-
Seward KS-
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEWARD COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liberal, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Kismet and Hayne.

LAT...LON 3708 10101 3734 10088 3736 10064 3713 10064
      3700 10086 3700 10093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 218DEG 22KT 3708 10092

SUGDEN