Wind Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

971 
WWUS71 KBUF 202344
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
744 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-210745-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.180921T1500Z-180922T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
744 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* TIMING...From late Friday morning through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few tree limbs and 
  result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile 
  vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

748 
WWUS71 KBUF 210225
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1025 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-211030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.180921T1500Z-180922T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1025 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* TIMING...From late Friday morning through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few tree limbs and 
  result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile 
  vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

494 
WWUS71 KBUF 210857
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
457 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-211700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.180921T1500Z-180922T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
457 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few tree limbs and 
  result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile 
  vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

129 
WWUS71 KBUF 211442
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.180921T1500Z-180922T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1042 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few tree limbs and 
  result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile 
  vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

TMA

637 
WWUS71 KBUF 212243
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-212345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180922T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
643 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1119 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will gradually lift north across the central Great
Lakes today then New York tonight. The greatest chances for some
rain showers will be across Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence
River Valley tonight. Friday will be quite unsettled as a powerful
storm system moving into Quebec will generate strong winds across
parts of our region. A cold front associated with this storm system
will not only introduce a much cooler airmass for the weekend...but
it could also generate strong thunderstorms as it moves through late
on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite late this morning shows leftover low stratus across the
inland Southern Tier and portions of the Niagara Frontier starting
to lift and scatter out. Otherwise, a warm front associated with
strengthening low pressure over the Central Plains will lift north
across Ohio Valley today. Areas seeing sunshine late this morning
will see it fade behind mid and upper-level clouds moving in from
the west, however expect it to remain dry through the day, as any
shower activity will remain to the west and southwest where the
better forcing and moisture exist. Some warm advection aloft will
support a touch warmer and more humid day than yesterday under
southeast flow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints
across much of western NY rising back into the low 60s.

Tonight, the surface low will shift northeast across Minnesota and
Lake Superior while its warm front will lift northeast across the
Central Great Lakes and New York state. The best forcing and
moisture will remain closer to the center of the storm while
warm/moist advection will likely produce some showers across and east
of Lake Ontario late with a slight chance for a shower over the
Niagara Frontier. Otherwise mainly dry and cloudy conditions are
expected overnight. Lows will be more milder tonight with the
increase in dewpoints only allowing for temps to fall into the mid
to upper 60s across Western NY, and upper 50s to lower 60s east of
Lake Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient as the surface low well
to our west deepens will support increasing surface winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be an active weather day, with warm temperatures and
strong gusty winds to start, followed by a line of showers and
possible thunderstorms...that of themselves may also bring strong
gusty winds to the surface.

To start Friday surface high pressure over Atlantic Canada will be
fading to the east, while a deepening area of low pressure is
cutting northeastward...just to the north of Lake Superior.
Isentropic lift within the warm sector of this surface low may bring
a few morning showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes and Eastern
Lake Ontario region Friday morning. This activity will diminish with
daytime increasing boundary layer, such that by late morning a brief
lull in precipitation is likely.

Within this warm sector, 850 hPa temperatures of +16 to +17C,
combined with a strong southerly flow will build surface CAPE to
1000 to 1500 J/KG. This instability will likely produce a few
thunderstorms along lake breeze boundaries by early afternoon.

Of bigger note Friday late morning and afternoon will be synoptic
driven strong gusty winds. A LLJ of 50 to 55 knots centered around 2-
3K feet off the ground will eventually be tapped into by an
increasing boundary layer. Strong warm air advection and surface
inversion will temper the downward momentum some, though the lowness
of the jet supports possible advisory level gusts, with wind gusts
reaching speeds of 45 to 50 mph across the traditionally windy
location of along the Lake Erie shore, the northern Niagara Frontier
and possibly across Jefferson County. This threat will continue to
be highlighted in the HWO.

A PV anomaly on the 1.5 PV surface will pass across Quebec Friday,
deepening the surface cyclone from near 990 mb Friday morning to 975
mb Friday evening as it nears NewFoundland. This low will drive a
sharp cold front across our region Friday night. A line of showers
and possible thunderstorms ahead of this front will pass across the
region late Friday afternoon and evening. Though not necessarily a
low CAPE event, the SHERBS3 index does near 0.8 to 1.0 giving
indication that if the line of storms passes without thunder...there
could still be enough forcing to bring the still strong winds aloft
down to the surface. Though SPC will have the entire CWA highlighted
within a slight risk for Day2, the greatest threat may be near Lake
Ontario and points eastward...which will lie closer to the deepening
surface low.

The upper level trough will remain to our west through Friday
evening, with showers tapering off from west to east through the
first half of the night. This trough nearing us early Saturday
morning will send 850 hPa temperatures down to +5 to +6, that when
combined with a now northerly flow will likely bring lake effect
clouds, and upslope light showers or sprinkles through Saturday
morning. Drier air will slowly build across the region later
Saturday, making for a sunny afternoon east of Lake Ontario, though
clouds will be slow to erode south of the lake with the upslope flow
continuing. These clouds, combined with the cool pool aloft will
hold Saturdays temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s...or some
20 to 25 degrees F lower than Friday.

Saturday evening the region will eventually clear out, and with
light winds from a surface high pressure building into the region,
overnight temperatures will become quite chilly, with lows ranging
through the 40s. Any clouds associated with a secondary surface
trough later Saturday night will likely be north of Lake Ontario and
towards the Saint Lawrence Valley.

Sunday should be mostly sunny across the region with high pressure
near the eastern Great Lakes region. Though we'll have similar 850
hPa temperatures a sunny day should tack on several degrees from
Saturday's highs...with Sunday afternoon feature temperatures in the
low to mid 60s...or several degrees below normal. Mainly clear skies
Sunday night will again bring a chilly night to the region, with
lows again in the 40s. Near the warmer lakes, overnight lows will be
around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday surface high pressure will slide to our east, allowing for a
return flow of warmer...but more moist air. This surface high should
maintain a dry day Monday, but by Monday night rain showers
associated with a warm front will lift northward across mainly WNY.

Tuesday and Wednesday another cold front will advance towards our
region...this from a surface low tracking across central Ontario and
Quebec. Tuesday will feature warmer temperatures, into the lower
70s...with chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Activity will likely be a little more widespread on Wednesday as a
cold front is forecasted to cross the region. Highs Wednesday ahead
of the cold front will again reach into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Leftover IFR stratus across the inland Southern Tier (KJHW), and
MVFR stratus across portions of the Niagara Frontier (KIAG) will
lift/burn off by early afternoon.

Later today, a warm front will gradually push to the north across
the Ohio Valley. This will be responsible for a west to east
increase in VFR low and mid level clouds across the state, while any
showers should stay north and west of the border.

Tonight, the warm front will lift northeast across Lake Ontario and
New York state. Guidance indicates that widespread stratus will
spread northwest from PA reaching into portions of the western
Southern Tier and mainly the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
All TAF sites however, will remain just west/north of this low
stratus with VFR expected. Showers along the warm front will become
likely east of Lake Ontario tonight, with lesser chances as you head
further south.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms. Windy with strong thunderstorms possible.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will approach later today with an uptick in southeast
to easterly flow. This will be modest with the exception of western
Lake Ontario where a 15 knot flow will result in choppy conditions
by later this afternoon.

A deep storm system over Lake Superior tonight will track across
Ontario into Quebec on Friday. As a result, southwest winds will
freshen across the Lower Great Lakes with 30 knot winds anticipated
on Lake Ontario. Fairly widespread small craft advisories can be
expected late tonight through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH/Smith
NEAR TERM...JM/Smith
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JM/Smith
MARINE...JM/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

NYZ011-012-210915-
Genesee-Wyoming-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie,
including much of the Niagara Frontier.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from mid afternoon through
mid evening Friday along and ahead of the advancing strong cold
front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-013-014-020-021-210915-
Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop from mid afternoon through mid
evening Friday along and ahead of an advancing strong cold front.
There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-210915-
Jefferson-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph northeast of Lake Ontario,
including much of Jefferson County.

These gusty winds will also increase wave heights on lake Ontario
such that a beach hazard statement for dangerous rip currents
developing is likely for Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from late afternoon
through mid evening Friday along and ahead of the advancing strong
cold front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may
contain damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-210915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop from mid afternoon through mid
evening Friday along and ahead of an advancing strong cold front.
There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-085-210915-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie, through
Erie County.

These gusty winds will also increase wave heights on Lake Erie such
that a beach hazard statement for dangerous rip currents developing
is likely for Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from mid afternoon through
mid evening Friday along and ahead of the advancing strong cold
front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-210915-
Niagara-Orleans-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie and
across Niagara and Orleans counties.

These gusty winds will also increase wave heights on lake Ontario
such that a beach hazard statement for dangerous rip currents
developing is likely for Friday and then possibly again for Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from mid afternoon through
mid evening Friday along and ahead of the advancing strong cold
front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-210915-
Monroe-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie and to
Monroe county.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from mid afternoon through
mid evening Friday along and ahead of the advancing strong cold
front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

Winds will remain gusty on Lake Ontario into Saturday, with increased
wave heights along the shoreline lingering through Saturday. A
beach hazard statement for dangerous rip currents developing may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-210915-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop from mid afternoon through mid
evening Friday along and ahead of an advancing strong cold front.
There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

Winds will remain gusty on Lake Ontario into Saturday, with increased
wave heights along the shoreline lingering through Saturday. A
beach hazard statement for dangerous rip currents developing may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-210915-
Chautauqua-
503 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Friday ahead of a strong cold
front. Winds may gust to over 50 mph along the immediate shoreline of
Lake Erie and Chautauqua county.

Scattered thunderstorms will then develop from mid afternoon through
mid evening Friday along and ahead of an advancing strong cold
front. There is a Slight Risk that some of these storms may contain
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Thomas