Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2018
Wind Advisory 11, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Nov 5, 2018, 3:46 AM EST for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Nov 6, 2018, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 39 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 5, 2018, 3:46 AM EST (08:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 6, 2018, 1:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2018, 3:36 PM EST
- In force
- 39 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1601 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 288 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 329 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
348 WWUS71 KBUF 050846 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 346 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 NYZ019-085-051700- /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T0600Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 346 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...From overnight tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph later tonight and early Tuesday...then southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-051700- /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 346 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ JJR
11 follow-up statements
865 WWUS71 KBUF 051700 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1200 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 NYZ019-085-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T0600Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 1200 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...From overnight tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph later tonight and early Tuesday...then southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-060100- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 1200 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
372 WWUS71 KBUF 052026 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 326 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 NYZ019-085-060500- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T0600Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 326 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...From overnight tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-060500- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 326 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ Apffel
054 WWUS71 KBUF 052129 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 429 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 NYZ007-060530- /O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 429 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, mainly near the lakeshore. * TIMING...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ019-085-060530- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T0600Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 429 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...From late tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-060530- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 429 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
024 WWUS71 KBUF 060227 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 927 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 NYZ019-085-061030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T0600Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 927 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...Late tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-061030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 927 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-061030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 927 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, mainly near the lakeshore. * TIMING...From early Tuesday evening through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ Apffel
017 WWUS71 KBUF 060855 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 355 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 NYZ019-085-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 355 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * TIMING...Through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181106T1200Z-181107T2100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw 355 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...From early this morning through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 355 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, mainly near the lakeshore. * TIMING...From early this evening through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ JJR
817 WWUS71 KBUF 061439 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 939 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 NYZ001-010-019-085-062245- /O.UPG.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0006.181106T1439Z-181107T1100Z/ Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 939 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect until 6 AM EST Wednesday. * LOCATIONS...Areas closest to the Lake Erie shoreline and Western Niagara County. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ002-003-011-012-062245- /O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw 939 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 939 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, mainly near the lakeshore. * TIMING...From early this evening through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
071 WWUS71 KBUF 062048 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 348 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 NYZ001-010-019-085-070500- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 348 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua, Erie, and Niagara counties. Strongest winds expected in areas closest to the Lake Erie shoreline and western Niagara County. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude will bring down some tree limbs and result in scattered power outages. Driving in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ002-003-011-012-070500- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw 348 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages, and will make driving in high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-070500- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 348 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, strongest winds will be near the lake Ontario shore. * TIMING...From early this evening through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ Hitchcock
576 WWUS71 KBUF 070226 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 926 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 NYZ001-010-019-085-071030- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 926 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua, Erie, and Niagara counties. Strongest winds expected in areas closest to the Lake Erie shoreline and western Niagara County. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude will bring down a few trees and result in scattered power outages. Driving in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ002-003-011-012-071030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw 926 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages, and will make driving in high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-071030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 926 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, strongest winds will be near the lake Ontario shore. * TIMING...Through late Wednesday afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ Hitchcock
390 WWUS71 KBUF 070832 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 332 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 NYZ001-010-019-085-070945- /O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 332 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the High Wind Warning. $$ NYZ002-003-011-012-070945- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T1100Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw 332 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind Advisory. $$ NYZ007-071645- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 332 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County, strongest winds will be near the lake Ontario shore. * TIMING...Through late this afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ Thomas
422 WWUS71 KBUF 071627 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1127 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 NYZ007-072100- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 1127 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson County. The strongest winds will be near the Lake Ontario shore. * TIMING...Through late this afternoon. * WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude could lead to some downed tree limbs and isolated power outages...and will make the driving of high profile vehicles more difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
456 WWUS71 KBUF 072036 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 336 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 NYZ007-072145- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 336 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind Advisory. Winds will continue to slowly diminish through the rest of the afternoon and evening. $$ Hitchcock
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 5, 3:41 AM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 3:41 AM EST, 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A complex frontal system will sweep across our region during the
first half of today with some showers...then our attention will turn
to low pressure that will pass by to our west and north on Tuesday.
This next storm system will push a strong cold front across our
forecast area...producing a round of heavy showers while ushering in
potentially strong to damaging winds in the process. Looking further
ahead to the end of the week...there remains high confidence that
accumulating lake snows can be expected in the snowbelts east of
both lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will become unsettled across much of the region this morning...as
a negatively tilted mid level trough will shove a complex Pacific
based frontal system across our region. The good news with this
frontal passage will be that its associated rainfall will be short
lived...mainly confined to the morning and midday...and that it will
introduce a milder airmass to the western counties.
The forcing with this system will be mainly provided by a 125kt H25
jet that will race by to our south. The 60 mile wide swath of
showers associated with the front will be centered over the far
western counties at daybreak with the axis of pcpn rapidly moving
east to the Eastern Lake Ontario counties by mid morning. QPF will
be under a tenth of an inch in many areas...especially north of the
NYS Thruway where downsloping will help to east away at amounts.
Slightly higher rainfall numbers will be possible across the Eastern
Lake Ontario region where an upslope flow will do just the opposite
by enhancing the pcpn efficiency.
As the showers quickly depart during the midday and afternoon...mid
level drying and large scale subsidence could poke a few holes in
the cloud cover over the western counties. This could help with the
warming...which should be noticeable from the Finger Lakes westward
where H85 temps of 6c should support afternoon highs in the mid 50s.
Our attention will then turn to a strong shortwave that will make
its way from the mid western states to the Lower Great Lakes. This
feature can be seen in WV imagery early this morning over Kansas
where it is supporting a large area of moderately heavy rain. While
we can expect a decent shot of rain from this feature as well...a
larger concern will be the potential for strong winds. As the
shortwave tracks northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes...a broad
and somewhat nebulous surface low will consolidate over Lower
Michigan. While the storm system will deepen to under 1000mb by
daybreak...it will be weaker than earlier advertised. This should be
to our benefit in terms of the strength of its corresponding
winds...although winds are still expected to reach advisory criteria
levels (40 kts/46 mph) in its wake. Thats getting a little ahead of
ourselves though...so lets back it up and concentrate on tonight.
As the aforementioned area of low pressure becomes organized over
the mid western states later tonight...a deepening southerly flow
over our region will advect increased moisture across our region. A
powerful 140kt H25 jet associated with the deepening surface low
will then pass to our west with its corresponding jet induced lift
passing overhead. The combined lift from this UL jet and significant
convergence ahead and along a strengthening surface cold front will
produce another swath of rain...which could be moderately heavy.
There may even be a line of convection right with the front...but
there will be a higher chance for this south of our region.
The showers and possible thunderstorms will enter the far western
counties well after midnight...with the heaviest/steadiest showers
expected towards daybreak. The bulk of the rain tonight will stay
west of the Finger Lakes. While ideal downslope wind conditions
should not be in place in advance of the cold front late tonight...
there will still be the potential that 30-40kt winds could still mix
to the surface between the Chautauqua Ridge and the Lake Erie
shoreline. Have thus decided to have a wind advisory in place for
that area starting at 06z tonight.
Finally...the deepening south to southeast flow ahead of the storm
system will guarantee a relatively mild night. Temperatures will
only drop into the mid to upper 40s for most areas...especially over
the far western counties where some areas may not drop below 50.
These readings will be some 10 to 15 deg above typical early
November mins.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Tuesday a negatively tilted upper level trough and associated
deepening surface low will pivot northeastward across the central
Great Lakes into Ontario Province...from which point onward the
system will become increasingly vertically stacked as it tracks
into Northern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. In a nutshell...
this system will bring a period of unsettled weather to our system
that will last through midweek...with a round of widespread showers
and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms out ahead of its cold front
on Tuesday quickly giving way to a prolonged period of rather windy
conditions that will last from Tuesday afternoon right through most
of Wednesday...along with scattered to numerous lake effect rain
showers east of the lakes.
With respect to the winds...over the last 24 hours the operational
guidance suite has trended toward a somewhat closer track of the
surface low...though at the same time it has also trended notably
weaker with its overall strength and consequently the strength of
its attendant wind field. As a result...it now appears that any
brief stronger downslope-driven winds along the Lake Erie shoreline
early Tuesday...and the subsequent much longer period of more
widespread stronger southwesterly to westerly winds in the wake of
the cold front Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday will largely
feature some lower-end advisory type gusts in the typically favored
areas across the lake plains...and progressively weaker winds with
increasing inland extent. Given the increasing confidence in this
scenario and the expected prolonged nature of the stronger post-cold
frontal winds...we have elected to hoist a round of Wind Advisories
that will be in effect through most of the day Wednesday for those
areas most likely to see advisory-type gusts...i.e. from the Chautauqua
county shoreline and the Niagara Frontier over to the Rochester area.
While it is also possible that an additional Wind Advisory may
ultimately be needed for Jefferson County as well...have held off
on this for now given the expected later timing and more marginal
nature of the stronger winds there.
With respect to precipitation...this system will quickly push its
attendant warm front and trailing cold front across our region
during the course of Tuesday...with the latter feature passing
through our region between late morning and late afternoon. As it
does so...the deepening and increasingly dynamic system will interact
with plentiful deep moisture...and as such confidence remains high
in a couple rounds of showers accompanying the passage of these two
boundaries...which together may help to generate basin average
rainfall amounts of around one half inch. The strong dynamical
forcing accompanying the cold front may also still be enough to
support the chance of a few embedded thunderstorms as well...
though given the closer track of the low the potential for this
does not look quite as great as it has over the past few days.
Nonetheless...given the impressive wind fields that will be in
place aloft...any such storms or heavier showers that form along
the cold front could still have the potential to produce some
localized strong gusty winds.
In the wake of the cold front...the arrival of strong dry slotting
aloft should result in the showers tapering off fairly quickly from
west to east Tuesday afternoon...though upsloping and lingering low
level moisture may still allow a few leftover showers to hang on a
little longer east of Lake Erie. Otherwise...the aforementioned drying
aloft and only modest cold air advection in the wake of the front
should preclude the development of any true lake effect showers until
Tuesday night...when our airmass will finally become cold enough to
support these east of the lakes. At this point...available moisture
appears to be limited enough to keep any lake-driven rain showers more
scattered in nature...particularly east of Lake Erie. With respect to
temperatures...it will be rather mild on Tuesday when highs should
reach into the lower half of the 60s in most areas...before steady
cool air advection in the wake of the cold front sends readings back
down into the 40s Tuesday night.
Continued steady cold advection will then result in the cooler airmass
deepening across our region Wednesday and Wednesday night...when 850
mb temperatures will drop to between -4C and -6C. This will be plenty
cold enough for continued scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers
east of the lakes...particularly east of Lake Ontario where notably
deeper moisture and a fetch along the long axis of the lake will be
in place. In terms of ptype...the showers should easily remain in the
form of rain through the day Wednesday... before our airmass turns cold
enough to possibly allow some of these to mix with some wet snow across
the higher terrain Wednesday night. Outside of the main lake effect
areas showers will be much more isolated...with still-rather windy
conditions on Wednesday finally abating Wednesday night. Otherwise...
much cooler highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday will be
followed by lows in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday night.
Lingering scattered lake effect rain and snow showers east of the
lakes will then gradually wind down Thursday and Thursday evening
with the arrival of surface-based ridging...and attendant subsidence/
warming aloft. Outside of the main lake effect areas...conditions
will be mainly dry...with Thursday's highs mostly ranging in the
mid to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next system will approach and cross our region Thursday night
and Friday as the next upper level trough digs across the Upper
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. With the 00z/05 suite of guidance...
the GFS has come back toward the ECMWF idea of a better organized
double-barreled low affecting our region...while the GEM shows a
similar pattern but weaker overall system. Considering the more
consistent track record of the ECMWF and the trends seen in the
GFS...will continue to favor a more-developed system and therefore
continue with likely PoPs for Friday. Given marginally cold enough
temperatures...the precipitation from this system may begin as a
mix of rain and non-accumulating wet snow later Thursday night...
before transitioning over to all rain during the day Friday.
Otherwise...highs on Friday should be in the lower to mid 40s.
Following the passage of this system...the medium range guidance
remains in excellent agreement that much colder air will build into
the region for the first half of next weekend...with 850 mb temps
dropping off to between -10C and -12C Friday night and Saturday.
With lake surface temperatures still running between +10C and +11C...
such an airmass would easily be plenty cold enough to support areas
of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes through Saturday. While
much uncertainty still persists with respect to both the timing and
location of these given the influence of hard-to-resolve shortwave
impulses that could modulate the low level flow and consequent band
placement...at this early juncture the bulk of any lake effect appears
as if it may lie across the traditional snow belts east of the lakes
given a predominantly westerly flow. Elsewhere snow showers should
be much more widely scattered...with mainly dry weather generally
prevailing. By Sunday...the lake effect may break up with the
arrival of ridging/drier air and increasing shear/southerly flow.
With respect temperatures over the weekend...these will range
substantially colder than normal...with both weekend days mostly
featuring highs only in the mid to upper 30s...and nighttime
lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions that have been in place overnight will deteriorate
from west to east as we progress through the early morning hours.
A complex frontal boundary and an associated swath of widespread
showers will start to cross the western counties after 10z. Cigs
will drop to MVFR levels for several hours as showers will rapidly
cross the region during the course of the morning...with IFR cigs
possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region.
As we work through the midday into the afternoon...the showers and
MVFR cigs will push out of the region. This will leave cigs of 3500
to 5000 feet across the region...with some patches of MVFR cigs
still possible for the airfields in the higher elevations.
Conditions will deteriorate later tonight as a strong cold front
will approach from Ohio. Cigs will lower to MVFR levels over the
western counties...with another round of IFR cigs anticipated for
KJHW and KELZ.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with attendant
MVFR cigs/vsbys, with LLWS possible before stronger winds mix to
surface.
Wednesday...Possibly windy behind a cold front with MVFR showers.
Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR within lake effect rain to
the east of the Eastern Great Lakes, otherwise VFR.
Friday...MVFR with rain and snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Several headlines are now in place across the Lower Great Lakes...
including a gale watch for Tuesday through at least Tuesday night.
Fresh to occasionally strong southeasterlies will veer more to the
south for a brief period today...as a complex frontal system will
race across the region. While this will direct the highest waves
into Canadian waters...small craft advisories have been issued for
many areas to cover the strength of the winds. This will especially
be the case on Lake Ontario...where winds will remain relatively
high through tonight.
A deepening storm system will then pass to the west and north of
Lakes Erie and Ontario on Tuesday. This will lead to winds that will
strengthen to gale force levels...including gusts that could
approach 50 knots over the open waters of Lake Ontario. Have thus
issued a gale watch for both lakes and their nearshore waters. While
the strongest winds can be expected late Tuesday and Tuesday
night...gales are likely to persist on Lake Ontario through most of
Wednesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
NYZ001>003-010>012.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for LEZ040-041.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for LEZ040-041.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for LOZ043>045-063>065.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for LOZ042-062.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...Apffel/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 3:55 AM EST | Gale Watch | BUF | 11 hr | |
| Nov 5, 3:55 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 4 days | |
| Nov 5, 2:37 PM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 49 hr | |
| Nov 5, 4:54 PM EST | Lakeshore Flood Advisory | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 17 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New York, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.