Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Buffalo, NY

956 
WHUS71 KBUF 252035
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

LOZ044-045-260445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-180925T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
EDT THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-260445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-260445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-260445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

987 
WHUS71 KBUF 260303
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

LOZ042-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO
2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

068 
WHUS71 KBUF 260809
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
409 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

LOZ042-261600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
409 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-261600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
409 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South to west 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-261600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
409 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-261600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.180926T1200Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
409 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

244 
WHUS71 KBUF 261451
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

LOZ042-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-262200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South to west 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

665 
WHUS71 KBUF 261830
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

LOZ042-270230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-262200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-270230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-270230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

810 
WHUS71 KBUF 262045
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

LEZ040-041-262145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180926T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ042-270445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-270445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-270445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

034 
WHUS71 KBUF 270222
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

LOZ042-270600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-270900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-270600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1022 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

721 
WHUS71 KBUF 270554
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

LOZ043-044-270700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

LOZ042-045-270700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-180927T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

RSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
941 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will taper off from west to east ahead of a warm
front today. Breezy and mild conditions will continue through
tonight. A cold front will track across the region Wednesday
with additional showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. A
few storms may become strong to severe. High pressure will build
across our region Wednesday night through Thursday with dry
weather and seasonable temperatures. There is a chance for more
rain showers Friday with the next front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Widespread light to moderate rain will continue across the North
Country this morning. This rain is being forced by a 50 knot
low level jet which is stretched across Western NY at this
time. Rain has been tapering off across Western NY as forcing
diminishes. The core of the strongest winds will track northeast
across the North Country by mid-day. These strong winds will
remain trapped in the inversion aloft. The only exception was
along the Lake Erie shore parallel to the Chautauqua Ridge as
gusts were being observed due to downsloping. As the strongest
winds move north of the Western Southern Tier and have veered
more southerly the strong winds are no longer expected in this
area however gusts up to 40 mph are still possible through the
morning.

A warm front is quickly approaching Western NY this morning. It
will track northeast across western and north-central NY
through this afternoon. Clouds and scattered showers are
possible during this time. South-southwest winds 10-20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph will gradually diminish today. Temps will
warm into the low 70s across the lake plains under southerly
downslope flow and mid/upper 60s away from the lakes. Dewpoints
are forecast to climb into the low/mid 60s behind the front
making for a humid feel to the air.

Tonight, western and north central New york will lie solidly within
the warm sector of low pressure shifting across Michigan. In this
warm sector there will be a relative lull in synoptic and mesoscale
forcing within warm air advection. Any shower activity during the
bulk of the night will be no more than isolated to scattered in
coverage. A cold front and pre-frontal tough will be in the process
of approaching western NY overnight. While the cold front will
remain west of our forecast area tonight, mesoscale guidance
indicates that one or two waves of more numerous showers will move
east across the area after midnight. Basin average total rainfall
for rain ahead of the cold front will run from three-quarters to one
inch. Temps will remain very mild tonight with lows only slipping
back into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday convection will be ongoing as a cold front reaches far
WNY early in the morning. This continues to be a set-up where
kinematics dominate, with 0-6 km shear values near 50 knots, while
MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/KG. The greatest potential for
damaging winds will lie from the inland So. Tier, Genesee Valley and
points eastward to the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region
where tapping into what daytime instability there is may be enough
to generate thunderstorm segments and stronger winds. It will be
warm out ahead of the front, with temperatures into the mid 70s.
Sharp cold air advection behind the front will bring cooler air
across WNY through the day Wednesday. With the front passing across
the region mid day...the second half of Wednesday will trend drier.

High pressure will then expand towards the Northeast from the So.
Plains. This will yield drier weather Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Clearing skies both Wednesday night and Thursday
night may allow for river valley fog to form...as well as some
patches of fog SE and E of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will dip into
the 40s Wednesday night. On Thursday the surface high pressure will
pass across the region, and with the cool pool aloft, daytime highs
will remain seasonably in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term becomes a little more uncertain as various model
packages differ on the timing and strength of a cold front
approaching the region Friday and Friday night. The 00Z GFS is
faster than the 00Z ECMWF, bringing the front across the region
Friday with rain showers. The slower ECMWF would favor more Friday
night and into Saturday.

On Sunday and into Monday the ECMWF brings surface high pressure
over the region with mainly dry weather, while the GFS leaves some
weak surface troughing over the Eastern Great Lakes. Will maintain
low chances for showers...though both models agree that the best
chances for rain showers will come later Monday and into Monday
night along a warm front ahead of a dynamic storm system developing
in the central plains.

With a general zonal flow aloft temperatures will remain close to
seasonal averages. This would place afternoon highs in the 60s for
the region, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread light to moderate rain is tapering off from west to
east this morning. With the exception of KJHW, VFR/MVFR cigs
will continue today as rain continues to taper off. IFR cigs
will continue across the Western Southern Tier/KJHW as the low
levels remain nearly saturated. Southerly winds 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts are expected this morning. Winds will taper
off by afternoon. A warm front will cross the region today and
rain will showery through the afternoon. There won't be much
change in the ceilings we enter the warm sector of a very moist
environment. VFR ceilings will likely become MVFR by afternoon
across the terminals with KJHW staying IFR.

Most TAF sites will see MVFR/IFR cigs tonight with winds again
becoming gusty from the south ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms will arrive ahead of
the cold front across WNY toward 8-12z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR (IFR likely in So. Tier) cigs with showers
likely and a chance for morning thunderstorms. Strong to severe
storms possible.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly winds this morning as a strong pressure gradient and
low level jet have centered over the eastern Great Lakes. These
winds will maintain small craft advisories on the nearshore waters
of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through this afternoon. While the
higher waves will mainly be pushed towards the open and Canadian
waters the wind component will carry the advisory through this
afternoon.

A cold front will cross the lakes Wednesday. This front has the
potential to bring strong to severe thunderstorms with cold air
advection behind the front again kicking up the waves on the Lakes.
Another stretch of advisory conditions are likely through Wednesday
night. High pressure will then bring fair weather through the end of
the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Smith
NEAR TERM...HSK/Smith
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/Smith
MARINE...HSK/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
914 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

NYZ003>008-011>014-020-021-261315-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
914 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-261315-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
914 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of a cold front
Wednesday.
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather with damaging winds as the
primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-019-085-261315-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
914 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of a cold front
Wednesday.
There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather with damaging winds as
the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-261315-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
914 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of a cold front
Wednesday.
There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather with damaging winds as
the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf