Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Buffalo, NY

748 
WHUS71 KBUF 040540
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LEZ040-041-041345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T0600Z-180605T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T0600Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-041345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T0900Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-041345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T1500Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-041345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T1200Z-180605T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West around 15 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

648 
WHUS71 KBUF 040901
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LEZ040-041-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T1500Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T1200Z-180605T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

622 
WHUS71 KBUF 041343
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LEZ040-041-042145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-042145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-042145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-042145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.180604T1500Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-042145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
943 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

991 
WHUS71 KBUF 042020
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LEZ040-041-050300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-050300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-050430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-050000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
420 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

120 
WHUS71 KBUF 042344
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LEZ020-050045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the advisory
has been cancelled. 

$$

LEZ040-041-050300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-050300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-050600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

788 
WHUS71 KBUF 050230
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

LOZ043-050330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels...therefore
the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-050330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels...therefore
the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

LOZ045-050600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-050600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

072 
WHUS71 KBUF 050540
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

LOZ044-045-050645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-180605T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A plume of moisture will cross the region this afternoon through
tonight and combine with a trough moving through the Great Lakes to
produce a few rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. A few
scattered showers will linger into Monday, with the most
concentrated showers east of Lake Ontario. Another cold front will
cross the area Tuesday with additional showers. Temperatures will be
at or below average through much of the week before warming again by
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar imagery showing an area of steady rain focused along and west
of the Genesee Valley early this afternoon along a north/south
oriented band of convergence and frontogenesis in the 900-700mb
layer. This area is also associated with a plume of deep moisture
being stripped away from the persistent closed low over the Mid
Atlantic States. Additional forcing from a modest 30 knot low level
jet and embedded vorticity maxima will continue to support this area
of showers through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Short term
high resolution guidance moves this area of rain slowly east through
the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes through late afternoon,
before broadening and weakening as it moves into the eastern Lake
Ontario region this evening. Very little instability will be found
with this first area of showers, which should prevent any thunder.

A second area of showers and thunderstorms is developing early this
afternoon over NE Ohio and central Lake Erie, associated with
stronger forcing along the leading edge of a trough moving through
the central Great Lakes. The associated DPVA and convergence along
an associated surface cold front will produce a fairly solid line of
showers and scattered thunderstorms, which will enter far Western NY
very late this afternoon or early evening. The cold front, mid level
trough, and associated showers will then swing northeast across the
remainder of the area through the evening and early overnight. The
thunder risk is likely limited to just Western NY this evening, as
instability quickly wanes with time and eastern extent. Rainfall
rates and coverage will also tend to decrease with eastern extent as
instability diminishes.

Overall, expect rainfall amounts on average of a quarter to half
inch, and a half inch to an inch along and just west of the Genesee
Valley. These amounts will be somewhat uneven given the convective
nature of much of the rain.

The more widespread showers will taper off to scattered light
showers from west to east overnight following the passage of the
cold front. Lows will reach the mid to upper 50s on the lake plains,
and lower 50s for some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

On Monday a rather deep mid level trough will move east from Ontario
into Quebec, with the base of the trough crossing the eastern Great
Lakes. The deeper moisture will be found mainly across Canada, but
enough moisture will still be left across our region when combined
with cool temperatures aloft and daytime heating to support
scattered showers across much of the region. The coverage of the
showers will be a little more numerous east of Lake Ontario where
stronger forcing and deeper moisture is found. Abundant low level
moisture will support plenty of clouds on Monday. The cloud cover
combined with cool temperatures aloft will only support highs in the
low to mid 60s in most areas, with 50s for the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Closed mid-level low centered over southeast Quebec will slowly head
east and southeast towards New England. As this system tracks east
and southeast a narrow band of channeled vorticity will slowly drop
across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. A tight
H850 thermal gradient will slip south into the eastern Great lakes
over the course of Monday night leading to chances for showers
as the cold front sags south across the CWA.

Tuesday, the closed mid-level low will track past the eastern Great
Lakes into New England. As it does so, a couple of disturbances will
drop down the western periphery of the low across the lower lakes.
These features in combination with H850 temperatures dropping to
+2C/+3C along with the 500 mb cold pool crossing the lower lakes and
sufficient moisture will likely lead to numerous showers and a
chance of thunderstorms during the day. With H850T falling to +2/+3C
with continued cold air advection and with limited sunshine daytime
highs will likely top out in the 50's to L60'S. Putting this into
perspective it will be 10F to 15F below climo for early June.

Tuesday night, the closed low will begin to slowly depart off the
New England coast. Drier air working in behind this system and
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes building east into New
York State will effectively shut down any residual shower activity
overnight. Look for slow but gradual clearing to take place
overnight with temperatures dropping back into the mid and upper
40s, even a few U30's will be possible east of lake Ontario by
Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, with surface high pressure over the region and building
500mb heights behind the closed low look for tranquil weather with
increasingly abundant sunshine across the state. Wednesday night,
surface high pressure slides east off the mid Atlantic coast in
advance of a weak frontal boundary approaching the lower lakes.
Latest guidance shows very little moisture with this front with dry
conditions expected to continue overnight. Highs Wednesday will
generally be in the 60's areawide with lows in the 40's to L50's
along the lake plains by sunrise Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Thursday surface-based ridging along the Atlantic coastline will
slide further east and out to sea. Meanwhile a modest surface low
will push across northern Ontario and Quebec while pushing its
trailing weak cold front toward our area...with this boundary then
crossing our area between Thursday night and early Friday. While
model guidance has come into much better overall agreement on the
above timing...this boundary continues to look rather starved for
both moisture and mid/upper level support...which makes perfect
sense considering that its parent wave will be displaced well to
our north. With this in mind have continued to indicate just some
slight chance to lower-end chance PoPs for some widely scattered
showers in the late Thursday/Thursday night/early Friday time
frame...with mainly dry weather otherwise expected to prevail.

Following the frontal passage...Canadian high pressure will then
ridge southeastward across our area for the rest of Friday and
Friday night...before drifting off to our east and southeast on
Saturday. This should lead to fair dry weather for much of the
Friday-Saturday time frame...before a weak surface wave passes
by to our south and brings some additional lower-end shower chances
to the Southern Tier later Saturday/Saturday night/Sunday morning.
In its wake...high pressure and dry weather should then become
re-established across our region for the latter half of Sunday.

Regarding temperatures...these will rebound to near normal levels
after the much cooler than average readings experienced earlier
in the week. More specifically...daily highs will recover into
the mid 70s in most places by Friday then will remain at such
levels through the weekend...while nightly lows will range through
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of steady showers along and just west of the Genesee Valley
will move east across the Genesee Valley and into the western Finger
Lakes this afternoon, eventually reaching the eastern Lake Ontario
region this evening in a somewhat weakened state. A second band of
showers and scattered thunderstorms will enter Western NY during the
very late afternoon and early evening. The thunder chances will be
limited to Western NY this evening, with the remaining showers
moving east across the rest of the area through the early overnight.
The heavier showers will produce areas of MVFR VSBY. CIGS will
generally be a mix of VFR and MVFR at lower elevations, with some
IFR across higher terrain.

Later tonight and Monday a few scattered showers will continue as a
deep trough crosses Ontario and Quebec. The showers will be somewhat
more concentrated east of Lake Ontario where deeper moisture is
found. VSBY will be VFR most of the time, although a few of the
showers may produce brief/local MVFR. Lower CIGS will develop late
tonight and Monday morning across much of the region. Expect IFR to
develop across higher terrain, and also over and northeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario with moist flow crossing the cool lake waters. This
will only slowly improve Monday afternoon with MVFR becoming more
common.

Outlook...
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely and isolated
thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds early this evening will steadily become south and
southwest later this evening following the passage of a cold front.
Winds will increase out of the southwest and west on Lake Erie later
tonight, and on Lake Ontario Monday. This will produce Small Craft
Advisory conditions on both lakes Monday. Winds will come down some
Monday night and Tuesday, with choppy waves continuing on both
lakes, but likely just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT
         Tuesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
         for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

NYZ008-011>014-020-021-041545-
Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-041545-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A high swim risk is expected along the Lake Erie shoreline Monday
due to moderate onshore winds and wave action.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>007-041545-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A high swim risk is expected along the Lake Ontario shoreline Monday
due to moderate onshore winds and wave action.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-041545-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK